Lead: Disney and director James Cameron’s third Avatar film, Avatar: Fire and Ash, opened Thursday with $12 million in domestic preview ticket sales, studio figures show. International preview takings added $43.1 million, a figure reported by Disney that did not include China. Analysts say the film is on track for at least a $100 million opening weekend across the U.S. and Canada, and its early returns will influence year-end box office totals.
Key Takeaways
- Domestic Thursday previews reached $12.0 million for Avatar: Fire and Ash, according to Disney’s early tallies.
- International preview receipts totaled $43.1 million; Disney’s reported international numbers excluded China.
- Avatar: The Way of Water earned roughly $5 million more in its Thursday previews in 2022, implying about $17 million then.
- Box office forecasters expect at least a $100 million opening weekend in the U.S. and Canada for Fire and Ash.
- Premium formats (IMAX, Dolby, 3D) remain a major revenue driver, especially overseas where 3D retains popularity.
- Both 2009’s Avatar and 2022’s The Way of Water have surpassed $2 billion globally, with the first approaching $3 billion.
- Early estimates cited by Disney point to an opening-day figure around $17.1 million for an element of the rollout, a mark noted relative to recent Motion Picture Association openings.
Background
The Avatar franchise is a rare, high-grossing property in modern Hollywood. The original 2009 Avatar and its 2022 sequel, The Way of Water, both exceeded $2 billion worldwide; the first film came close to $3 billion. James Cameron’s name has been central to that commercial success, with audiences seeking the large-scale theatrical spectacle his films provide.
Each Avatar release has faced different market conditions: the 2009 film arrived before streaming reshaped viewing habits, The Way of Water benefited from sequel anticipation during early post-Covid recovery, and Fire and Ash is opening into a more crowded, “new-normal” marketplace. Studios now rely more heavily on international markets and premium formats to maximize revenue.
Main Event
On Thursday, Disney reported $12 million in domestic preview sales for Avatar: Fire and Ash and $43.1 million from international previews. The studio also noted that the international preview totals did not include China. Industry sources say the film will likely draw at least $100 million in its North American opening weekend, though final tallies will depend on weekend day-to-day performance and holiday traffic.
Comscore’s Paul Dergarabedian emphasized the film’s influence on the year’s aggregate box office, noting that with fewer days left in the calendar year, Fire and Ash’s performance will help shape annual totals. Shawn Robbins of Fandango and founder of Box Office Theory framed the release against different industry backdrops for the prior Avatar titles, stressing that the third film faces a more competitive landscape.
Revenue from premium large-format screens and 3D showings continues to underwrite strong early returns. Domestic audiences have trended away from 3D, but international markets—China in particular historically—still generate sizable premium-ticket revenue. Disney’s release strategy leans on those premium windows to sustain a longer theatrical run rather than front-loading all receipts into the first weekend.
Analysis & Implications
Fire and Ash’s $12 million domestic preview begins from a lower Thursday position than The Way of Water’s 2022 start, but that gap alone does not determine the weekend or total run. James Cameron films historically rely on extended legs—sustained attendance over multiple weeks—rather than single-weekend front-loading. That pattern can offset smaller early-day differences.
The film’s international performance will likely eclipse domestic returns as it has for previous Avatar entries. With $43.1 million in international previews (excluding China), much of Fire and Ash’s near-term commercial fate depends on how quickly China is added into official tallies and how other major overseas territories respond during the first two weeks.
Premium formats give the film room to generate higher per-ticket revenue, which matters as studios adjust revenue expectations in a post-pandemic market. If IMAX, Dolby and 3D allocations stay strong into January, the film may recoup a larger share of its production and marketing costs despite a relatively muted domestic preview day.
For the wider industry, Fire and Ash’s run will be a test of theatrical appetite for event films in the current landscape. A robust global showing would reinforce the value of theatrical exclusivity for spectacle-driven releases; a softer-than-expected haul would accelerate studios’ reassessments of release windows and international emphasis.
Comparison & Data
| Title / Metric | Domestic Thu Previews | International Thu Previews | Notable Global Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avatar: Fire and Ash (2025) | $12.0M | $43.1M | — |
| Avatar: The Way of Water (2022) | ~$17.0M | — | >$2.0B global |
| Avatar (2009) | — | — | ~$2.8B global |
The table above highlights Thursday preview comparisons and the franchise’s historical global reach. While Fire and Ash’s domestic Thursday is smaller than The Way of Water’s equivalent, the franchise’s international strength and premium-screen pricing historically offset domestic variability. Exact weekend totals remain projections until studios publish final daily grosses.
Reactions & Quotes
Industry analysts framed the release as consequential for year-end totals and for measuring contemporary audience appetite for large-scale theatrical events.
“A lot is riding on the performance of ‘Avatar: Fire and Ash’ and with less than two weeks remaining in the year, the film’s results will play a pivotal role in shaping the annual box office totals.”
Paul Dergarabedian, Comscore (marketplace trends head)
Another analyst contrasted the different market contexts across the three films and noted the importance of long-term runs rather than opening-day spectacle alone.
“The first was a sleeper-turned-phenomenon, the second rode sequel demand, and the third opens in a more competitive, new-normal market.”
Shawn Robbins, Fandango / Box Office Theory (director of analytics)
Unconfirmed
- China’s preview and opening-day numbers were not included in Disney’s initial international tallies; the eventual China figure remains unconfirmed by the studio at time of reporting.
- Early estimates around a $17.1 million opening-day figure were cited by Disney; how that figure maps across regions and formats requires confirmation from full daily box office releases.
- Weekend and total-run projections (including the $100M+ North American opening estimate) are forecasts and subject to change based on final daily grosses and holiday attendance.
Bottom Line
Avatar: Fire and Ash opened Thursday with $12 million in domestic previews and $43.1 million internationally (excluding China). While that domestic preview figure trails The Way of Water’s comparable day by about $5 million, the broader indicators—premium-format demand, international receipts and the Cameron brand—leave room for a strong overall opening weekend and sustained box office legs.
The film’s performance over the coming days will be closely watched by studios and analysts as an indicator of how marquee theatrical franchises fare in the current marketplace. Confirmed China figures and full weekend returns will be decisive in determining whether Fire and Ash ultimately matches the franchise’s previous global benchmarks.