Lead: Three traders who gained prominence in the subprime crisis and were profiled in The Big Short—Danny Moses, Vinny Daniel, and Porter Collins—told Business Insider on December 28, 2025, that their top macro conviction for 2026 centers on pressure for a weaker US dollar and upside for precious metals. All three, now collaborating on a Substack and podcast called What Are We Doing?, framed the view differently but arrived at a similar directional thesis. Their assessments follow a broadly positive 2025 for equities driven by AI, yet each expresses a cautious stance about the durability of risk assets into 2026. The result: portfolio tilts toward gold and selective emerging-market exposure alongside hedges against dollar weakness.
Key Takeaways
- Three former FrontPoint Partners traders—Danny Moses, Vinny Daniel, and Porter Collins—said in a Business Insider interview on 2025-12-28 that their highest‑conviction macro theme for 2026 is pressure on the US dollar.
- Danny Moses named gold as his single trade expression for 2026, citing geopolitics and sovereign‑debt dynamics as drivers of further gains.
- Vinny Daniel (co‑founder, Seawolf Capital) expects the “debasement” trade to persist in 2026, with emerging markets such as China and Brazil offering above‑average upside.
- Porter Collins (portfolio manager, Seawolf Capital) concurs on dollar weakness versus precious metals but warns gold may see intermittent pullbacks in early 2026.
- The trio’s thesis is set against a 2025 equity rally that benefited from AI‑focused flows, but they maintain a cautious macro posture heading into the new year.
- The group now produces commentary via the Substack/podcast What Are We Doing?, where they air contrarian macro investment ideas.
Background
The three traders rose to public attention during the US subprime mortgage crisis while at FrontPoint Partners, a small investment firm that profited from short positions in housing‑related securities. Their stories were among those dramatized in the film The Big Short, which highlighted how a handful of investors anticipated the housing collapse. Over time, each moved on from FrontPoint and now participates in joint commentary and independent investing efforts; Vinny Daniel and Porter Collins are affiliated with Seawolf Capital, while Danny Moses runs his own research and trading projects.
The macro backdrop entering 2026 combines lingering geopolitical tensions, elevated sovereign‑debt burdens among developed economies, and an equity market that saw strong performance in 2025—notably from AI‑related sectors. Central banks face a delicate tradeoff between containing inflation and supporting growth, and real interest‑rate dynamics have made certain commodity and emerging‑market exposures more attractive. Within that environment, debates have intensified over the durability of the US dollar’s role as the primary global reserve currency and the implications for hard assets such as gold.
Main Event
Business Insider asked Moses, Daniel, and Collins to identify their highest‑conviction macro trades for 2026. Moses immediately cited gold as his preferred one‑trade expression, arguing that geopolitical risk and sovereign indebtedness create a structural tailwind for the metal. He described gold as an important indicator of broader macro stability, tying its strength to a weakening dollar.
Vinny Daniel framed his answer as a continuation of what he called the debasement trade: investors buying assets that perform well when fiat purchasing power erodes. Daniel emphasized selective emerging‑market opportunities—calling out China and Brazil as markets where policy shifts and attractive valuations could compound returns for active managers.
Porter Collins was more circumspect about naming a single trade but echoed the group’s dollar view, saying he expects the US currency to lose ground versus precious metals. Collins qualified his stance by noting that gold’s recent rally looks extended and that short‑term corrections are possible, leaving room for tactical positioning rather than an unconditional all‑in.
Analysis & Implications
A sustained weakening of the US dollar would have several predictable market effects: higher dollar‑priced commodity prices, improved competitiveness for exporters denominated in other currencies, and potential capital flows into real assets seen as stores of value. For US investors, dollar depreciation raises the case for diversifying with non‑dollar assets, including gold, commodity producers, and select emerging‑market equities.
For emerging markets, a softer dollar can ease local currency stress and reduce the burden of dollar‑denominated debt, but outcomes will vary by country depending on external balances and policy credibility. Daniel’s emphasis on Brazil reflects an environment of comparatively high local rates and attractively priced equities—a combination that can reward foreign investors if currency risk is managed.
However, the timing and magnitude of any reserve‑currency adjustment remain uncertain. Central bank responses—particularly from the Federal Reserve—will be pivotal: higher-than‑expected US rates could arrest a dollar slide, while policy normalization elsewhere could accelerate currency shifts. That uncertainty is why Collins stresses tactical caution even as he acknowledges the directional thesis.
Comparison & Data
| Trader | Former Firm | Current Role | High‑Conviction Call (2026) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Moses | FrontPoint Partners | Independent / Substack contributor | Gold as primary trade |
| Vinny Daniel | FrontPoint Partners | Co‑founder, Seawolf Capital | Debasement trade; emerging markets (China, Brazil) |
| Porter Collins | FrontPoint Partners | Portfolio Manager, Seawolf Capital | Dollar weakness vs. metals; cautious on timing |
The table summarizes affiliations and the core positions articulated by each trader. Their commonality is directional—expecting dollar pressure—but tactical differences matter: Moses advocates a clearer gold allocation, Daniel favors regional equity exposure, and Collins emphasizes risk management against possible short‑term pullbacks.
Reactions & Quotes
The traders’ views have generated interest among investors watching currency and commodity markets. Below are brief excerpts and context.
“To me, gold is the thing that people should watch as an indication for economic stability or macroeconomic stability, including the US dollar.”
Danny Moses
Context: Moses used the quote to underline why he would express his 2026 conviction through a gold position, citing sovereign debt and geopolitical uncertainty as supportive forces.
“Even though it’s been an incredible trade, we think it’s going to continue… but we think it’ll outperform the S&P.”
Vinny Daniel, Seawolf Capital
Context: Daniel argued the debasement trade still has room to run, and he pointed to selective emerging‑market opportunities where real rates and valuations look favorable.
“I don’t know if I have a high conviction around it, but I have a general view that’s going to occur.”
Porter Collins, Seawolf Capital
Context: Collins qualified the group’s dollar‑weakness thesis with a warning that gold may be extended and vulnerable to short corrections, advocating measured positioning.
Unconfirmed
- The exact timing and magnitude of any sustained US dollar decline in 2026 remain uncertain; the traders describe a directional risk rather than a precise forecast.
- Whether gold will consistently outperform equities through 2026 is unproven; historical episodes of metal strength have included intermittent pullbacks.
- The degree to which China and Brazil will deliver the specific growth and returns Daniel expects depends on policy execution and external demand and is not guaranteed.
Bottom Line
Investors should view the veterans’ 2026 thesis as a coordinated directional signal—expectation of US dollar pressure and an allocation tilt toward gold and select emerging‑market assets—rather than a timing call. The three traders agree on the macro backdrop but differ tactically on how to express conviction, highlighting the importance of position sizing and hedging.
For portfolio managers and individual investors, the practical takeaway is to evaluate exposures to dollar risk, consider strategic allocations to hard assets, and be selective in emerging‑market allocations. Central‑bank moves, geopolitical shocks, or stronger‑than‑expected US economic data could alter the outlook quickly, so agility and risk controls will remain essential into 2026.
Sources
- Business Insider (news: interview published 2025-12-28)