Bitcoin Falls Below $63,000; Historical Signals Point to Deeper Decline

— Bitcoin (BTC) slipped under $63,000 during Asian trading, extending an overnight drop tied to renewed worries over President Donald Trump’s tariff plans and investor anxiety around AI-related market shifts. The leading cryptocurrency traded at $63,425.29 at the time of the dip and is down nearly 7% for the week, revisiting levels last seen on Feb. 6 when prices nearly reached $60,000.

Key Takeaways

  • Bitcoin fell below $63,000 during Asian hours on Feb. 24, 2026, trading at $63,425.29 at 4:44 a.m. UTC.
  • The asset is down about 7% for the week, returning to price territory last seen on Feb. 6, 2026.
  • Market stress followed President Trump’s announcement of temporary 15% tariffs, a rise from the 10% level disclosed the previous Friday.
  • Kraken’s Matt Howells-Barby identified $60,000 as critical support; if lost, he warned of a move into the mid-to-low $50,000 range.
  • Long-term technicals show the 50-week moving average still above the 100-week average, meaning the historical ‘bear cross’ signal has not arrived.
  • Analysts at Consensus Hong Kong told reporters that if history repeats, downside could extend to $50,000 or lower before the market finds a durable bottom.
  • Equities weakness and targeted selling of firms exposed to AI disruption amplified risk-off flows into crypto markets.

Background

Bitcoin has traded with elevated volatility since late 2024 as macro policy moves and geopolitical shifts reshaped investor risk appetite. Over the past year, the market has oscillated between strong institutional inflows into regulated derivatives venues and sudden liquidity withdrawals when macro headlines turn negative. The rise of futures and ETF-linked options trading has also begun to influence price discovery, concentrating some activity on regulated venues and changing how volatility is priced in U.S. hours.

Political headlines have repeatedly disrupted risk assets in 2025–26. In early February 2026 markets digested a U.S. Supreme Court decision that affected the administration’s tariff approach; President Trump then announced a temporary 15% tariff on imports, increasing uncertainty around global trade and corporate earnings. For bitcoin, which often moves with broad risk sentiment, those swings can trigger outsized moves as leveraged positions are closed and directional flows reverse quickly.

Main Event

On Feb. 24, Asian trading saw bitcoin dip below $63,000 as traders priced in renewed tariff-related market risk and spotty sentiment around AI winners and losers. The overnight weakness followed U.S. equity losses after the tariff announcement, with risk-on sectors retreating and some investors rotating out of growth exposures tied to AI adoption.

Market data showed bitcoin down about 7% for the week, matching levels from Feb. 6 when the market briefly tested the $60,000 threshold. Short-term traders noted faster-than-usual liquidation moves in futures markets that exacerbated the pullback, while spot liquidity thinned during Asian hours, widening realized bid-ask spreads.

Kraken’s Matt Howells-Barby highlighted the $60,000 level as a focal point for buyers and sellers. He cautioned that its failure could open the path to the mid-to-low $50,000s, a scenario that some traders see as a realistic next support cluster if risk sentiment deteriorates further.

Analysis & Implications

Technically, the most-watched long-term signal is the interaction between the 50-week and 100-week moving averages. Historically, bitcoin has tended not to establish a durable bottom until the 50-week average crosses below the 100-week average — a so-called bear cross that has coincided with the ends of major drawdowns in 2018 and 2022. That pattern reflects the lagging nature of long-term moving averages: they confirm extended declines rather than anticipate them.

At present the 50-week average remains above the 100-week average, meaning the historical confirmation signal has not arrived. If past cycles are a guide, the absence of a bear cross suggests more room for downside before broad capitulation and a lasting low. Some market participants therefore view current levels as an intermediate correction rather than the final bottom.

Macro policy actions — especially trade restrictions that can slow global growth — add an extra layer of risk. Tariff hikes tend to pressure equities and dampen liquidity; for bitcoin, that can translate into outsized price moves because of leverage in derivatives markets and concentration of trading across a handful of venues. If tariffs persist or escalate, the cross-asset impact could deepen bitcoin’s decline in the short to medium term.

Comparison & Data

Indicator Current Status (Feb. 24, 2026)
50-week moving average Above 100-week (no bear cross)
100-week moving average Below 50-week
Weekly moving-average relationship that historically signals bear-market troughs.

The table summarizes the long-term moving-average relationship that traders track. Because moving averages are lagging, a crossover historically confirms extended market deterioration rather than predicting immediate direction. Market strategists use this alongside liquidity, derivatives positioning and macro indicators to estimate when selling pressure may abate.

Reactions & Quotes

“Similar to equities, Bitcoin has had a sharp pullback today, driven largely by renewed tariff-related uncertainty.”

Matt Howells-Barby, Kraken (via CoinDesk)

Howells-Barby framed the day’s move as part of a broader risk-off action linked to trade-policy headlines. He also emphasized the importance of the $60,000 support level for short-term market structure.

“History shows BTC rarely bottoms until the 50-week average crosses below the 100-week average.”

CoinDesk analysis

CoinDesk’s historical perspective, based on prior cycles, was cited by traders at Consensus Hong Kong when forecasting the potential for deeper declines before a durable bottom forms.

Unconfirmed

  • Whether President Trump will implement the announced 15% tariffs exactly as framed remains subject to administrative steps and policy details that were not finalized publicly.
  • Predictions that bitcoin will fall to mid-to-low $50,000 or $50,000-or-lower are conditional on further deterioration in risk sentiment and have not been confirmed by on-chain or derivatives capitulation indicators.

Bottom Line

Bitcoin’s dip below $63,000 on Feb. 24, 2026, reflects a convergence of macro policy risk and sector-specific volatility. Short-term traders face a busy risk landscape: tariff headlines, AI-related re-rating of equities and concentrated liquidity in derivatives markets all raise the odds of additional downside before a stable low appears.

Longer term, the absence of a 50-week/100-week bear cross suggests the market has not yet produced the historical confirmation that has marked past bottoms. Investors and risk managers should watch support near $60,000, derivatives positioning and whether the moving averages converge — these signals together will provide a clearer indication of when selling pressure may subside.

Sources

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