Lead: On February 28, 2026, reports of explosions in Tehran and accounts that the US and Israel struck targets across Iran sent ripples through risk assets, driving sharp losses in cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin plunged intraday to as low as $63,038 before settling near the $64,000 area in New York morning trading. Ether fell more steeply, touching $1,836 at its low. Data trackers showed roughly $128 billion wiped from the digital-asset market in the immediate aftermath.
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin dropped as much as 3.8% intraday to $63,038, then stabilized around $64,000 during New York morning trade on Feb. 28, 2026.
- Ether fell up to 4.5% to an intraday low of $1,836, marking one of the larger single-session moves among major tokens.
- CoinGecko data indicate about $128 billion in market value vanished across crypto markets in the first hours after the reports.
- Markets reacted to reports that US and Israeli forces struck targets in Iran; the geopolitical shock pushed investors from high-risk assets to safer holdings.
- Price swings were concentrated early in the session, with partial recovery as trading continued and some uncertainty about the scale and confirmation of the strikes remained.
- Volatility metrics and intraday volume rose sharply, consistent with flight-to-safety trading during geopolitical shocks.
Background
The Middle East has been a recurring source of market stress for global investors, with geopolitics often translating quickly into price moves in commodities, currencies and risk assets such as equities and crypto. Since late 2025, tensions involving Iran and regional actors have periodically flared, prompting shorter but sharp swings across financial markets. Cryptocurrencies, which are still perceived by many investors as high-beta instruments, tend to amplify moves when geopolitical news increases uncertainty.
Cryptomarkets are also structurally sensitive to concentrated liquidity and leveraged positions. When a sudden shock occurs, margin calls and stop-loss triggers can exacerbate price moves, producing outsized intraday declines. Market-data providers and trading desks monitor on-chain flows and exchange order-books closely during such episodes to assess whether price changes reflect lasting demand shifts or transient liquidity gaps.
Main Event
On Saturday, Feb. 28, 2026, early reports of explosions in Iran’s capital, Tehran, circulated across international wires and social platforms. News outlets reported that the United States and Israel had struck targets across the country; these accounts were followed by heightened risk aversion in global financial markets. Within minutes, majors in the crypto space printed notable declines: Bitcoin fell nearly 4% to $63,038 at its session low, while Ether dropped about 4.5% to $1,836.
Trading in New York during the morning showed partial stabilization as some market participants reassessed the scope of the strikes and incoming updates. Liquidity conditions varied across venues, with larger order-book gaps on certain exchanges contributing to steeper intraday prints. Market-data aggregator CoinGecko attributed roughly $128 billion of market-cap erosion to the immediate reaction across digital assets.
Traders reported elevated trading volumes and an uptick in bids for traditionally safer instruments, consistent with a short-term risk-off move. Crypto derivatives desks noted increased funding-rate volatility and temporary widening in spreads for perpetual futures. These dynamics reflected both real-time information flow about the geopolitical events and algorithmic positioning unwinding.
Analysis & Implications
Geopolitical shocks historically produce outsized short-term moves in assets that market participants regard as speculative; cryptocurrencies have shown this behavior repeatedly over the past several years. The Feb. 28 sell-off underscores that despite maturation in infrastructure and institutional participation, crypto markets remain susceptible to rapid repricing when geopolitical uncertainty spikes. That sensitivity can create feed-forward loops where liquidity stress amplifies price declines.
For institutional participants and allocators, the episode highlights the need for calibrated risk limits and stress testing that incorporate geopolitical tail events. Portfolio managers holding meaningful crypto exposures must weigh the asymmetric liquidity characteristics of on-chain assets versus traditional holdings, particularly during off-hour events that can trigger outsized moves in thin markets.
Economically, the direct transmission from geopolitical news to crypto prices does not necessarily indicate a persistent change in fundamentals for digital assets; rather, it often reflects short-term shifts in risk appetite. Policymakers and exchanges will watch whether such episodes lead to calls for additional circuit-breakers, improved reporting protocols, or liquidity protections during periods of heightened global tension.
Comparison & Data
| Asset | Intraday Low | Approx. Decline |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | $63,038 | 3.8% |
| Ether (ETH) | $1,836 | 4.5% |
| Crypto market cap (total) | — | ~$128 billion erased (CoinGecko) |
The table summarizes recorded intraday lows and percentage moves. The $128 billion figure reflects estimated market-cap change across tracked tokens in the immediate aftermath of the Tehran reports; total losses can vary as prices rebounded and as later data revisions occur.
Reactions & Quotes
Markets moved sharply on the news, with high-beta assets leading declines as investors priced in elevated geopolitical risk.
Bloomberg (news report)
CoinGecko’s early data showed sizable market-cap reductions across tokens within hours of the reports, illustrating how quickly valuation can shift.
CoinGecko (market-data provider)
Several trading desks described increased volatility and order-book thinning, which intensified intraday price swings during the first wave of selling.
Market participants (trading desk reports)
Unconfirmed
- Attribution of specific damage or casualty figures from the Tehran explosions remained unverified at the time of early market moves.
- Precise operational details and targeting of the reported strikes by US or Israeli forces had not been independently confirmed in initial reports.
- The durability of the market-cap losses described by CoinGecko depended on subsequent trading and could be revised as data providers normalize late trades.
Bottom Line
The Feb. 28, 2026 episode shows that cryptocurrencies remain vulnerable to sudden geopolitical shocks despite growing institutional participation. An intraday Bitcoin low near $63,038 and an estimated $128 billion wiped from market value highlight the scale of reaction possible when conflict-related news breaks.
Investors should distinguish between transient liquidity-driven moves and lasting shifts in fundamentals; managing exposure and stress-testing for geopolitical tail risks remain essential for portfolios with crypto allocations. Market infrastructure and data transparency will continue to matter as participants and regulators assess how best to reduce disorderly outcomes during future shocks.