Black Friday tests a holiday halo as U.S. shoppers grow more selective

Lead

As Thanksgiving ends and retailers kick off the holiday push, Black Friday remains the single busiest in-store day of the year in the United States despite years of online competition and earlier seasonal discounts. This year’s kickoff arrives after a month in which The Conference Board reported weaker consumer confidence following a federal government shutdown, soft hiring and persistent inflation. Retailers and analysts say shoppers are more price-conscious yet still willing to spend on key occasions, creating what some call a “holiday halo” that boosts purchases beyond bargain hunting. The test for stores is whether that halo will sustain foot traffic and sales amid mixed economic signals.

Key Takeaways

• Black Friday continues to lead U.S. brick-and-mortar traffic as the unofficial start of the holiday season, drawing the most in-store shoppers on the day after Thanksgiving.
• From Nov. 1–23 consumers spent $79.7 billion online, a 7.5% increase year-over-year, according to Adobe Analytics.
• Mastercard SpendingPulse projects a 3.6% rise in holiday sales for Nov. 1–Dec. 24, down from last year’s 4.1% gain.
• Circana found 40% of general merchandise sold in September had price increases of at least 5% compared with early-year levels.
• Toys were among the hardest-hit categories: 83% of toys sold in September rose at least 5% in price, and nearly 80% of U.S.-sold toys are made in China, per The Toy Association.
• Mall-of-America foot traffic in recent weeks exceeded pre-pandemic 2019 levels, signaling stronger in-person demand in some regional hubs.
• Retailers started discounting earlier this season and are balancing online promotions with store-level traffic strategies to capture both channels.

Background

Black Friday evolved from doorbuster midnight crowds to a multichannel shopping period shaped by weeks of promotions and robust online offers. Over the past decade retailers shifted tactics—staggering deals, extending sales windows and investing in e-commerce—so the single-day frenzy of past years has moderated. Still, the day-after-Thanksgiving timing remains psychologically important for consumers and marketers as a marker for holiday buying decisions.

This year’s retail landscape has been textured by policy and pricing pressures. Retailers planned inventory in spring and summer while responding to variable tariffs on imports, including higher levies on some Chinese-made goods. Some companies moved shipments early or absorbed tariff costs to avoid passing full increases to consumers, but price rises persisted across many categories.

Main Event

Despite subdued physical frenzies, many stores reported solid foot traffic entering Black Friday week. Executives at major malls, including Mall of America in Bloomington, Minnesota, said recent Saturday traffic beat pre-pandemic 2019 levels, suggesting pockets of strong in-person demand. That on-the-ground momentum coexists with healthy online spending: Adobe’s tracking shows the early season online haul outpaced Adobe’s own forecasts through Nov. 23.

Retailers contend with a bifurcated consumer: shoppers increasingly hunt deals but still allocate budgets for important occasions such as the holidays and back-to-school. That pattern has produced a perceived “halo” where demand for certain categories lifts related purchases. For example, appliance, TV and toy discounts are expected to perform differently across Thanksgiving, Black Friday and Cyber Monday windows.

Market signals are mixed. Mastercard’s SpendingPulse projects a smaller holiday growth rate than last year, reflecting caution among economists about the durability of consumer spending. At the same time, some retailers emphasize promotions timed to specific days — Thanksgiving for sporting goods discounts, Black Friday for TVs and Cyber Monday for apparel and computers — to maximize category-specific returns.

Price pressure is visible across merchandise: Circana’s analysis found broad-based price increases, with toys, baby products and housewares among the most affected categories. Those cost shifts reflect global supply-chain decisions, tariff timing and retailers’ choices on whether to absorb or pass through higher input costs.

Analysis & Implications

First, the persistence of foot traffic in key malls suggests physical retail still matters for experience-driven purchases and large-ticket items. Even as consumers browse online, stores offer immediacy and tactile assurance that can convert searches into same-day buys. For retailers, balancing inventory and staffing for both channels is now a prerequisite rather than an advantage.

Second, elevated prices in many categories mean consumers must be more selective. When 40% of general merchandise shows at least a 5% price increase, shoppers are likelier to prioritize purchases with higher personal utility or emotional value—boosting the importance of targeted promotions and loyalty incentives. Retailers that offer precise, timed discounts on the right categories stand to capture spend even in a cautious climate.

Third, macro uncertainty—weak hiring signals, inflation persistence and the recent government shutdown—could mute upside. Economists note that consumers often report pessimism while continuing to spend, but sensitivity to price remains real. If labor market indicators soften further or inflation spikes again, discretionary categories could face sharper contractions.

Comparison & Data

The table highlights a mixed retail picture: online spending is up materially year-over-year, yet overall holiday growth is projected to moderate. Price inflation is concentrated in specific categories, which helps explain why certain segments may outperform while others lag. Retailers and planners should use these data points to prioritize inventory allocation and promotional cadence across channels.

Reactions & Quotes

Retailers and economists offered concise takes on the mood and mechanics shaping the season. Executives pointed to strong mall traffic in regional centers while economists emphasized increased price sensitivity among consumers.

“Consumers have been saying the economy is terrible while continuing to spend for years now,”

Bill Adams, Comerica Bank (chief economist)

Adams’ comment captures the paradox of consumer sentiment versus behavior: survey responses can skew negative even as spending on key categories continues. Economists interpret that gap as evidence consumers are being selective rather than broadly retrenching.

“We’re seeing a very positive start to the holiday season,”

Jill Renslow, Mall of America (chief business development officer)

Renslow pointed to higher-than-2019 foot traffic in recent weeks, indicating that experiential and destination malls retain drawing power. For regional retail hubs, that uptick can boost ancillary revenue from dining and entertainment even if spending per visit varies.

“Clearly, consumers feel on edge. But at the moment, it doesn’t seem like it’s changing how they are showing up for this season,”

Michelle Meyer, Mastercard (chief economist)

Meyer’s observation frames a working hypothesis: consumers may be uneasy but are still participating in seasonal shopping, which suggests retailers should prepare for demand volatility week-to-week rather than an outright collapse.

Unconfirmed

• The precise degree to which tariff costs were absorbed by retailers versus passed to consumers varies by company and is not uniformly disclosed.
• How long the recent lift in Mall of America foot traffic will persist into December remains unclear without full-month data.
• The longer-term impact of the federal government shutdown on holiday spending behavior has not yet been definitively linked by public economic studies.

Bottom Line

Black Friday still matters as a traffic driver and an anchor for holiday marketing, but its role has evolved into part of a longer, multichannel season. Retailers that manage pricing transparency, time promotions by category and maintain a seamless online-offline experience are best positioned to convert interest into sales.

For consumers, the season will reward selectivity: targeted discounts and category-specific deals—TVs and appliances on Black Friday, apparel and computers on Cyber Monday—are likely to offer the deepest savings. Policymakers and market-watchers should monitor labor and inflation signals closely, since a notable deterioration could turn selective spending into outright pullback.

Sources

• AP News — news report
• Adobe Analytics — industry analytics platform
• Mastercard SpendingPulse — payment-data research (company site)
• Circana — market research firm
• Mall of America — retail operator