Lead: The Toronto Blue Jays have agreed to bring back veteran right-hander Max Scherzer on a one-year contract that guarantees $3 million with up to $10 million in performance incentives, sources say. The deal, first reported by Jon Heyman and detailed by Shi Davidi, would free a 40-man roster spot once Anthony Santander is moved to the 60-day injured list. Scherzer, a three-time Cy Young winner and future Hall of Famer, pitched for Toronto in 2025 after signing a $15.5 million winter pact and now returns as the club plans its 2026 rotation and payroll strategy.
Key Takeaways
- Contract terms: One-year deal with a $3M guaranteed base and up to $10M in incentives, per media reports.
- Roster mechanics: Toronto can open a 40-man spot by placing Anthony Santander on the 60-day injured list once the signing is official.
- 2025 performance: Scherzer posted a 5.19 ERA across 85 innings, his highest season ERA and first time allowing more than five earned runs per nine innings.
- Injury history: He underwent back surgery before the 2025 season and missed time due to a nerve issue that affected his throwing arm and thumb soreness.
- Pitching profile: At age 41, Scherzer’s fastball averaged 93.6 mph in 2025; he struck out roughly 23% of batters and walked 6.4%.
- Home-run trend: He allowed more than 2.0 HR/9 in 2025 — the fourth-highest rate among pitchers with 70+ innings that year.
- Payroll impact: The $3M base will push the Jays’ projected luxury tax payroll toward roughly $319M, with spending above $304M taxed at 90%.
- Rotation planning: Scherzer is expected to be a back-end, innings-limited option and could help populate a six-man rotation early in 2026.
Background
Max Scherzer joined the Blue Jays prior to the 2025 season on a $15.5 million contract after a shortened 2024 with the Texas Rangers limited to nine starts. That 2024 campaign followed back surgery in the prior offseason; a lingering nerve issue in his throwing arm contributed to sporadic availability and late-season limitations.
Toronto’s willingness to sign a veteran with an extensive injury history reflected a calculated bet: Scherzer brings elite postseason experience and high-leverage pedigree even as his stuff has declined from peak years. The Jays rode a deep rotation in 2025, and management viewed Scherzer as a veteran piece who could be useful in October, where he did appear in both the ALCS and World Series.
Main Event
The reported one-year agreement guarantees Scherzer $3 million with incentives that could raise his total earnings to $13 million if performance triggers are met. The club will clear space on the 40-man roster by moving Anthony Santander to the 60-day injured list once the signing is finalized, a standard roster mechanism to accommodate veteran additions.
On the field in 2025, Scherzer’s season was unusual for a pitcher of his résumé. He exited his Blue Jays debut after three innings because of thumb soreness linked to the prior nerve issue, then was shut down for roughly two months before returning in late June. After that return he avoided further stints on the injured list but produced results well below his career norms.
Statistically Scherzer finished with a 5.19 ERA over 85 innings, with only seven starts that exceeded five innings and six quality starts across 17 appearances. He still missed bats at an approximately league-average rate — a 23% strikeout rate with a tidy 6.4% walk rate — but contact against him produced more damage than in prior seasons, including a HR/9 north of 2.0.
Given age (41) and recent workload, Toronto’s blueprint appears to emphasize innings management. If Scherzer reaches Opening Day readiness, the plan would likely put him into a six-man rotation early in 2026, reducing per-start exposure and preserving bullpen resources for the long season and another October run.
Analysis & Implications
From a pure performance perspective, Scherzer now profiles as a back-end starter rather than an ace. His fastball velocity (93.6 mph in 2025) reversed a minor downward trend from the prior year, but he lacks the consistent swing-and-miss mastery that defined his peak. That makes him more vulnerable when forced to challenge hitters in the zone, which helps explain the elevated home-run rate and higher ERA.
For Toronto, the upside is pragmatic: limited cost ($3M base) and upside appreciation via incentives give the club flexibility while still tapping Scherzer’s postseason experience and leadership. A six-man rotation would protect him from overuse but shifts innings and leverage needs across a pitching staff already balancing starters like Dylan Cease, Kevin Gausman, Trey Yesavage, José Berríos and Cody Ponce.
Payroll and luxury tax considerations are material. RosterResource’s projections put the Jays’ franchise-record luxury-tax payroll near $319 million after the signing, meaning any dollars above the $304 million threshold are taxed at 90%. The reported $3M base creates an immediate $2.7M base tax hit, and any incentive payouts that count toward Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) will be taxed at the same 90% rate.
Personnel dynamics in the bullpen and depth chart will be affected. A six-man rotation reduces short-term strain on starters but lowers the bullpen headcount under MLB’s 13-pitcher limit, making long-relief pieces such as Eric Lauer more valuable. Lauer’s arbitration result — set at $4.4M after he lost his hearing versus a $5.75M filing figure from his camp — increases the complexity of his roster role and potential roster decisions if the club wants more rotation depth.
Comparison & Data
| Metric | 2025 | Career (entering 2026) |
|---|---|---|
| ERA | 5.19 | 3.23 |
| Innings | 85 | 3,000+* |
| K% | ~23% | ~28%* |
| BB% | 6.4% | ~7%* |
| HR/9 | >2.0 (4th highest among 70+ IP) | ~1.0* |
| Fastball (avg) | 93.6 mph | 95+ mph (peak)* |
Those numbers underscore the gap between Scherzer’s present-day profile and his peak. The jump in home-run rate and elevated ERA are the clearest statistical flags; his strikeout and walk rates remain respectable, suggesting he still has value in matched starts and shorter leverage windows.
Reactions & Quotes
Team and media reactions underline the pragmatic tone around the signing: a low-risk, potentially high-reward arrangement for both sides. The club sees an experienced arm who can be managed; Scherzer and his representatives accepted a structure emphasizing incentives tied to availability and performance.
“I believe pitching out of the bullpen last season cost me money in arbitration.”
Mitch Bannon / The Athletic (on Eric Lauer)
This comment from a player directly affected by role decisions frames some of the internal roster tension. Lauer’s arbitration outcome and stated preference for starting innings illustrate how one signing can ripple through multiple roster contests.
“Agreement reported”
Jon Heyman / New York Post (reporting on the Scherzer deal)
Media outlets that first broke the news emphasized the contract structure ($3M base, $10M incentives). Subsequent coverage confirmed roster moves (Anthony Santander to 60-day IL) and payroll implications via payroll trackers.
Unconfirmed
- Whether Scherzer will be ready for Opening Day remains uncertain until his spring build-up is observed in Grapefruit League action.
- The final construction of a six-man rotation has not been officially announced and depends on spring health and minor-league/roster outcomes.
- There is no public indication that Eric Lauer will request a trade if kept in a relief role; a change could depend on arbitration outcomes and club decisions closer to Opening Day.
- The precise incentive triggers that would pay Scherzer up to $10M have not been publicly itemized beyond general performance and innings milestones.
Bottom Line
The Blue Jays’ reported re-signing of Max Scherzer is a low-cost, upside-focused move that buys veteran playoff experience while capping downside for Toronto. Financially modest on the surface, the deal has meaningful payroll implications because of the team’s proximity to the luxury-tax threshold and the 90% surtax on dollars above $304 million.
On the field, Scherzer projects as an innings-managed, back-end starter who can still deliver in high-leverage situations, particularly in October. His 2025 metrics and injury history make his role and usage in 2026 conditional on spring health; if he reaches form, he strengthens the Jays’ rotation depth and postseason toolbox, but he is unlikely to shoulder a traditional 150+ inning starter’s workload.
Sources
- MLB Trade Rumors — Media report detailing the agreement and context (news outlet).
- Sportsnet — Canadian sports media outlet; Shi Davidi reported contract terms ($3M base, $10M incentives) (news outlet).
- RosterResource — Payroll tracker and roster projection site cited for luxury-tax calculations (salary/roster database).
- New York Post — Jon Heyman first reported the agreement; cited as initial reporting (news outlet).