Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan told CBS News’ Face the Nation in late December 2025 that the tariff-driven market shock of 2025 appears to be easing and that the bigger near-term risk to U.S. growth is labor-market uncertainty. Moynihan pointed to resilient consumer spending, ongoing wage growth and a loosening—but not broken—job market as reasons for cautious optimism. He argued that once tariff levels settle and businesses adjust prices and supply chains, the economy should stabilize into 2026. Markets, Moynihan added, have already priced much of the shock, shifting the focus to hiring, retention and labor availability.
Key Takeaways
- Brian Moynihan (Bank of America) told CBS’ Face the Nation in late December 2025 that the 2025 tariff shock is moving toward an endpoint and market effects are easing.
- U.S. equity benchmarks were up sharply by Dec. 26, 2025: Nasdaq +22.2% YTD, S&P 500 +17.9% YTD, Dow +14.5% YTD.
- Tariff actions in 2025 pushed the effective U.S. tariff rate into the mid-teens (near 16–18%) from low single digits the prior year.
- Yale’s Budget Lab estimated a short-term price-level increase of about 2.3% from 2025 tariffs, roughly $3,800 per household (2024 dollars).
- Consumer spending remained strong—Moynihan cited a 4.0–4.5% year‑over‑year increase through late Nov/early Dec; Visa reported holiday retail up about 4.2% (Nov 1–Dec 21).
- Labor metrics show wage growth near 3% and unemployment at 4.6% in Nov 2025 (about 7.8 million people), with job gains cooling but ongoing (+64,000 jobs in Nov).
- Trade flows shifted substantially: imports from China fell ~25% in the first three quarters of 2025, and tariffs generated more than $236 billion in taxed sales through Nov 2025.
Background
The U.S. economy entered 2025 under rising geopolitical and trade tensions that led to a sequence of tariff announcements and retaliatory measures. Policymakers and markets reacted quickly: early 2025 saw high-profile tariff moves including a 50% U.S. tariff on certain Chinese semiconductors effective Jan. 1, and a broad set of minimum levies announced in April. Those actions marked an abrupt increase from historically low U.S. tariff levels and triggered volatility across asset classes.
Over the course of the year, tariff policy shifted multiple times—some hikes were softened by later agreements, and others broadened to cover additional partners. The effective U.S. tariff rate rose into the mid-teens by late 2025, a dramatic change from the roughly 2.3% average the year before. That policy volatility fed inflationary pressures, stressed supply chains and prompted rapid re‑pricing across markets and corporate plans.
Main Event
Moynihan’s comments in late December 2025 framed the tariff episode as an acute shock that is now de‑escalating. He told CBS that tariff levels are beginning to cluster—meaning that marginal changes from one headline rate to the next will have smaller real effects—and that businesses will adapt by passing costs into prices and reconfiguring supply lines. He emphasized that, in his view, the most disruptive phase is passing rather than intensifying.
The 2025 timeline helps explain the argument: a Jan. 1 50% chip tariff, an April announcement of broad minimum levies, a May 12 deal that dialed back certain hikes to 10% for a temporary period, and later summer proposals that settled at lower-than-feared headline rates all created a roller-coaster for trade flows and markets. The April announcement coincided with a near 15% trough in the S&P 500 and an immediate, large market-value writedown, illustrating the speed of the shock.
Despite those hits, Moynihan pointed to continued consumer demand and employment resilience as reasons banks and corporations were not retreating into full defensive posture. He cited Bank of America team analysis that costs would be absorbed over time, and that supply-chain adjustments would blunt much of the long-run impact. At the same time, he singled out labor as a variable businesses cannot price away as easily—hiring and retention choices shape investment and expansion plans more directly than incremental tariff steps.
Analysis & Implications
The immediate implication of Moynihan’s view is that macro risk has shifted from headline trade policy to domestic labor dynamics. If tariffs are indeed stabilizing in the mid-teens, much of the initial repricing—inventory adjustments, supplier substitutions and pass-through inflation—will already be reflected in corporate forecasts and asset prices. Markets rise when forward earnings expectations improve; the late‑December YTD gains across major indices suggest investors have begun to look past the worst of the shock.
That said, the distributional impact remains important: Yale’s Budget Lab estimate that tariffs lifted the U.S. price level by about 2.3% in the short term translates into materially higher costs for many households, and those costs are concentrated in specific goods and supply chains. Policymakers monitoring inflation will view that step-change as relevant to future rate decisions even if headline tariff volatility subsides.
Labor uncertainty complicates the outlook. Wage growth near 3% combined with modest job gains—64,000 new jobs in November 2025—and a 4.6% unemployment rate suggest a labor market that is loosening but still tight compared with full slack. Firms facing higher difficulty hiring and retaining workers may delay capital expenditure or slow expansion, muting growth even if input-cost shocks (tariffs) fade.
Internationally, a partial stabilization of tariffs reduces the probability of a prolonged, trade-driven global recession but does not eliminate friction. Trade diversion, higher sourcing costs and altered investment patterns can persist, affecting sectors unevenly and possibly prompting more nearshoring or regional supply-cluster investment over time.
Comparison & Data
| Indicator | Value (late 2025) |
|---|---|
| Nasdaq YTD (as of Dec 26, 2025) | +22.2% |
| S&P 500 YTD (as of Dec 26, 2025) | +17.9% |
| Dow YTD (as of Dec 26, 2025) | +14.5% |
| Effective U.S. tariff rate (late 2025) | ~16–18% (from ~2.3% in 2024) |
| Estimated short-term inflation lift (Yale Budget Lab) | +2.3% price level (~$3,800 per household, 2024 $) |
| Imports from China (first 3 quarters, 2025) | −25% |
| Tariff-related taxed sales through Nov 2025 | >$236 billion |
| Unemployment rate (Nov 2025, BLS) | 4.6% (~7.8 million people) |
| Wage growth (running) | ~3% |
| Jobs added (Nov 2025) | +64,000 |
The table summarizes the core metrics shaping Moynihan’s assessment. Equity rebounds by late December indicate investors priced improving growth expectations, while tariff metrics show a sharp reset from 2024 levels. Labor indicators remain mixed: ongoing wage growth but slowing monthly job gains and rising continuing claims point to a transition rather than a collapse.
Reactions & Quotes
Bank of America’s CEO framed the episode as a de‑escalating shock rather than an open-ended trade war, highlighting the ability of markets and firms to adapt.
“To go from a 10 percent across the board to 15 percent… not a huge impact,”
Brian Moynihan, CEO, Bank of America (Face the Nation, Dec 2025)
Moynihan used that line to illustrate his view that headline percentage moves, once understood, are less disruptive than the initial uncertainty. He argued that businesses will price costs and adjust sourcing, which reduces the marginal economic hit from further small tariff changes.
Commercial data providers and payments networks pointed to sustained consumer activity through the holiday season, supporting the notion of demand resilience despite higher goods prices.
“Holiday retail spending was up 4.2% for the Nov. 1–Dec. 21 period,”
Visa (seasonal spending estimate)
Visa’s estimate was cited by Moynihan and others as evidence that consumption growth persisted across income brackets, even while affordability sentiment weakened. That helped explain why firms had not pulled back entirely on expansion plans.
Unconfirmed
- Whether the May 12 temporary deals and subsequent summer adjustments will hold through 2026 is not yet confirmed; further negotiations could change tariff bands.
- The exact share of the April market drawdown attributable solely to tariff headlines versus concurrent macro factors (e.g., monetary policy moves) remains debated among analysts.
- Longer-term effects on investment location (nearshoring vs. continued globalization) are still unfolding and not yet settled by available data.
Bottom Line
Brian Moynihan’s late-2025 assessment reframes the policy shock of the year as an acute, partly contained event whose worst market effects may already be priced in. That view rests on three pillars: falling tariff unpredictability, resilient consumer demand and a labor market transitioning rather than collapsing. If tariffs truly cluster at higher-but-predictable levels and firms successfully adjust, the biggest risks to 2026 growth will come from domestic labor availability and how employment dynamics influence firms’ hiring and investment choices.
Investors and policymakers should therefore watch labor-market signals—wage trajectories, continuing claims and hiring difficulty—closely, even as they monitor trade negotiations. A sustained easing of tariff uncertainty could support a gradual normalization of supply chains and inflation pressures; conversely, renewed policy swings or persistent hiring bottlenecks could keep volatility elevated and slow the recovery of business confidence.
Sources
- TheStreet — Bank of America CEO interview summary (media)
- CBS News — Face the Nation (broadcast/interview)
- Reuters — market coverage and timeline reporting (news agency)
- Yale (Budget Lab estimate referenced; academic analysis)
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — employment & unemployment data (official government)
- Visa — seasonal spending estimates (industry data)