Updated Feb 10, 2026 — Bitcoin’s rebound from last week’s capitulation-style sell-off has lost momentum, running into resistance around $71,000 after a recovery to roughly $69,440. Trading data show a broad retreat from risk assets and notably thinner participation on major exchanges since late 2025. Sentiment briefly sank to levels last seen in the 2022 FTX-driven downturn before a partial rebound. Market participants and data providers warn that thin liquidity and lingering supply could leave BTC vulnerable to further tests of the $60,000 area.
Key takeaways
- Bitcoin bounced to about $69,439.57 after dipping into the low-$60,000s, but stalled under resistance near $71,000 on Feb 10, 2026.
- Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to 6 over the weekend and recovered to 14 by late Monday, indicating extreme caution among investors.
- Kaiko reports aggregate trading on major centralized exchanges declined roughly 30% since October–November 2025, with monthly spot volumes falling from about $1 trillion to roughly $700 billion.
- Analysts point to large latent sell interest and thinner order books; modest selling can therefore produce outsized moves and trigger cascade liquidations.
- Bitcoin’s peak near $126,000 in late 2025/early 2026 implies a drawdown exceeding 50%, consistent with multi-month bottoming patterns seen in past halving cycles.
- Holding the $60,000 area is the key technical signal; a failure there could accelerate downside in a low-liquidity environment.
Background
Bitcoin entered 2026 following a parabolic advance that carried the asset to roughly $126,000 in late 2025 and early 2026. That top set the stage for a sharp retracement as macro sentiment turned more cautious and headline-driven flows slowed. Historically, the four-year halving cycle has produced extended corrections after new highs, with price consolidation and repeated failed rallies often spanning months.
Retail participation and spot liquidity were strong during the ascent, but several data vendors now report a steady withdrawal of active traders since autumn 2025. When fewer orders sit on exchange books, even modest sell pressure can move prices dramatically and trigger additional automated exits. Market structure therefore matters as much as headline news in explaining volatile sessions where price swings are large but volumes are not consistently elevated.
Main event
Last week’s sell-off saw bitcoin briefly dip into the low-$60,000s in what many participants described as a capitulation-type flush, followed by a sharp rebound over the weekend. By Feb 10, 2026 the recovery had reached roughly $69,439.57 but encountered renewed selling near the $71,000 area, halting momentum. Traders increasingly frame the move as a relief rally that draws in buyers on dips, only to be met with supply from investors taking advantage of higher prices.
Market analysts flagged the concentration of sell interest above current levels and highlighted the role of thinner order books. With fewer resting bids, stop-loss clusters and liquidation mechanics can amplify price moves, turning relatively small net selling into outsized intraday swings. That dynamic, they say, helps explain why bitcoin can trade thousands of dollars in a session without resolving the underlying trend.
Data provider Kaiko documented a roughly 30% decline in aggregate volumes on major centralized exchanges since October–November 2025, with monthly spot activity moving from the ~$1 trillion range down to about $700 billion. That drop in participation suggests many retail traders are stepping back rather than being forced out all at once, reducing the damping effect liquidity normally provides during turbulent moves.
Analysis & implications
Technically, the immediate story centers on whether $60,000 holds as a floor. If buyers defend that zone, bitcoin could enter a choppy consolidation that sees repeated tests of $70,000–$71,000 without a decisive breakout. Such a pattern would be consistent with prior halving-cycle corrections, where bottom formation occurred over multiple months with several failed rallies.
Should defenders fail and selling re-emerge, the thin-liquidity backdrop raises the risk of rapid downside. In that scenario, stop-run dynamics and algorithmic unwind could produce sharp moves with relatively modest net selling—moves that can look disorderly even if driven by mechanical liquidity shortages rather than a single news shock.
From a macro and investor-behavior perspective, the low readings on the Crypto Fear & Greed Index (6 to 14 during the weekend and Monday) reflect extreme caution that historically accompanies localized buying opportunities but not always durable bottoms. Some professional desks interpret such readings as a signal to reduce position size until clearer evidence of demand resumes, prolonging the period of muted volume.
Finally, the concentration of latent sell-side inventory—holders who accumulated during the rally and now seek exits—creates a persistent supply overhang. That balance of supply and brittle demand means any recovery above $71,000 must be accompanied by a meaningful return of spot volume and bid depth to be convincing.
Comparison & data
| Metric | Late 2025 / Peak | Feb 2026 / Recent |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin peak price | $126,000 | ~$69,440 |
| Monthly spot volume (major CEXes) | ~$1,000 billion | ~$700 billion |
| Crypto Fear & Greed Index | — (varied) | 6 → 14 (weekend → late Monday) |
The table above summarizes the key numeric contrasts driving the current debate: a peak-to-trough drawdown in excess of 50% and a roughly 30% decrease in trading volume on major exchanges. Those shifts underscore why price action feels more fragile: the depth that once absorbed selling has thinned, and sentiment metrics have swung toward caution.
Reactions & quotes
“There remains significant supply from holders looking to exit on any rebound,”
Alex Kuptsikevich, FxPro chief market analyst (email)
Kuptsikevich framed the current bounce as fragile, warning that the market could revisit the 200-week moving average if selling resumes. He emphasized the importance of observing whether the $60,000 band holds as a gauge of structural strength or weakness.
“Aggregate volumes have trended lower by roughly 30% since Oct–Nov 2025,”
Kaiko (data note)
Kaiko’s note contextualized recent bursts of activity as episodic rather than a reversal of the broader downtrend in participation, suggesting a gradual exodus of retail traders rather than a wholesale forced liquidation concentrated in a single event.
“Fear readings are at depths comparable to the FTX-era drawdown in 2022,”
Crypto Fear & Greed Index (index data)
The index’s plunge into single digits signaled extreme risk aversion among market participants, a condition that historically precedes varied outcomes—from sharp rebounds to protracted bottoming processes—depending on whether liquidity returns.
Unconfirmed
- Whether the recent bounce marks the start of a durable bottom or merely an interim relief rally remains unresolved and requires more sustained volume to confirm.
- Exact breakdown of retail versus institutional exits during the recent drawdown is not publicly verified; estimates vary across data vendors.
- Reports of concentrated sell orders at specific price levels are based on order-book snapshots and may change rapidly as liquidity conditions evolve.
Bottom line
Bitcoin’s weekend rebound to roughly $69,440 stalled under $71,000 amid a backdrop of thin liquidity and elevated fear readings, leaving the market in a precarious, transitional phase. Key technical and liquidity signals—the $60,000 defending level, the 200-week moving average and a meaningful return of spot volume—will determine whether this episode becomes a multi-month consolidation or the prelude to further downside.
For now, traders and longer-term holders should watch participation metrics and order-book depth as closely as price levels: in a low-liquidity environment, relatively small flows can produce outsized price moves. A convincing recovery will require both renewed bid depth and sustained participation from a broader set of market actors.
Sources
- CoinDesk (news report)
- Kaiko (crypto market data provider)
- Crypto Fear & Greed Index / Alternative.me (sentiment index)
- FxPro (financial markets firm)