Lead: Michael Burry returned to X on Nov. 5, 2025, after a roughly two-year absence to warn that the AI spending boom looks like bubbly speculation. The Scion Asset Management founder used pop-culture memes and a WarGames line to urge caution, and disclosed large bearish option positions against Nvidia and Palantir in filings released the same week. Those put positions — covering 1 million Nvidia shares and 5 million Palantir shares with notional values of $187 million and $912 million — now dominate a tightly concentrated eight-name U.S. stock portfolio. Market reaction was swift: both stocks slipped and executives publicly pushed back.
Key Takeaways
- Michael Burry resumed posting on X on Nov. 5, 2025, invoking a WarGames quote and changing his profile to reference a December 2025 project titled “Cassandra Unchained.”
- Scion bought bearish put contracts tied to 1,000,000 Nvidia shares (notional ~$187M) and 5,000,000 Palantir shares (notional ~$912M) in the most recent quarter.
- Scion’s U.S. equity holdings now list eight positions total, with four direct equity stakes valued at about $68 million combined.
- Nvidia and Palantir fell roughly 4% and 8% respectively on the trading day after the filings were disclosed.
- Nvidia reached a roughly $5 trillion market value the prior week; Palantir traded near a $500 billion market value at Monday’s close.
- Burry flagged three themes: slowing cloud growth for Amazon and Alphabet, a sharp rise in tech capex similar to pre-crash spikes, and dense dealmaking among Nvidia, OpenAI, Oracle, and Microsoft.
- Analysts warn Burry’s strategy could pay off if earnings miss, but momentum, liquidity, and rate moves could push prices higher and inflict losses on a concentrated short bet.
Background
Michael Burry is widely known for correctly anticipating and profiting from the 2008 subprime mortgage collapse; his story was central to The Big Short. That track record makes his return to social posting notable: his prior public talks and investor letters emphasized sober, data-driven contrarianism and skepticism of crowded trades. In 2011 Burry gave a Vanderbilt Medical Center talk, “Missteps to Mayhem,” describing structural vulnerabilities exposed by bubbles; his new profile text and imagery reference that talk and the Cassandra myth—someone who foresees truth but is ignored.
The current debate centers on rapid capital spending across the technology sector to support AI services. Firms including Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Oracle and OpenAI are committing hundreds of billions to chips, data centers and software partnerships. That investment wave has produced extreme valuations for a subset of companies, high margin debt levels, and concentration in a handful of names — dynamics that historically have both amplified rallies and worsened subsequent corrections.
Main Event
On Nov. 5, 2025, Burry posted a terse warning on X: “Sometimes, we see bubbles. Sometimes, there is something to do about it. Sometimes, the only winning move is not to play.” He paired that message with Star Wars-themed imagery, including a still of Obi-Wan Kenobi and the line “These aren’t the charts you are looking for,” to argue that headline optimism obscures underlying risk. Burry attached three charts to illustrate his case: (1) cloud-revenue growth deceleration at Amazon and Alphabet and a small cooling at Microsoft’s cloud arm; (2) a spike in U.S. tech capital expenditures that echoes pre-crash patterns; and (3) dense, circular partnerships and transactions among major AI players.
Shortly after the posts, Scion’s latest regulatory disclosures showed the fund owning put options equivalent to 1 million Nvidia shares and 5 million Palantir shares, with notional sizes reported at about $187 million and $912 million. Those positions make the short exposure materially larger than the fund’s direct long equity value (about $68 million across four holdings), underscoring an unconventional and highly directional stance.
Market response was immediate: Nvidia shares fell about 4% and Palantir about 8% on the trading day following the disclosure. Palantir CEO Alex Karp publicly questioned the rationale for shorting firms he characterized as “making all the money,” marking an unusually public management rebuttal to an investor’s position. Commentators highlighted that the stocks’ recent runs — Nvidia reaching near $5 trillion and Palantir near $500 billion — leave them sensitive to any growth or margin disappointments.
Analysis & Implications
Burry’s moves signal a vote of no confidence in the sustainability of current AI-driven valuations and in the productive use of the enormous capex being deployed. If cloud growth and AI demand meaningfully slow, the expensive, capacity-heavy buildouts could generate excess supply, depressed utilization rates, and steep downward revisions to long-term profit expectations — a dynamic reminiscent of the early 2000s telecom overbuild.
However, the scale of Burry’s short exposure relative to his long book increases the risk profile of his fund. Momentum-driven markets, broad investor enthusiasm for AI, and continued Fed easing could keep prices elevated and inflict sizable mark-to-market losses on a concentrated bearish portfolio. In that environment, timing and liquidity are as important as thesis.
For broader markets, these wagers underscore two linked vulnerabilities: valuation concentration and leverage. ETFs, retail margin use, and levered strategies amplify price moves on both the upside and downside. Should one or more headline AI names disappoint, spillover effects could be magnified by derivative instruments and crowded positioning.
Comparison & Data
| Reported figure | Notes | |
|---|---|---|
| Scion put exposure (Nvidia) | 1,000,000 shares (~$187M notional) | Quarterly filing disclosure |
| Scion put exposure (Palantir) | 5,000,000 shares (~$912M notional) | Quarterly filing disclosure |
| Scion direct long equities | 4 positions, ~$68M total | Filed holdings for U.S. stock portfolio |
| Nvidia market value | ~$5 trillion | Reached prior week |
| Palantir market value | ~$500 billion | Valued near Monday close |
These figures highlight the asymmetry: Scion’s short derivatives exposure dwarfs the fund’s direct long equity value, creating a highly leveraged directional stance. Past episodes — notably the dot-com and 2008 cycles — show that infrastructure overbuild and leverage can lead to protracted corrections, especially when multiple firms and counterparties are interconnected.
Reactions & Quotes
“Sometimes, we see bubbles. Sometimes, there is something to do about it. Sometimes, the only winning move is not to play.”
Michael Burry, Scion Asset Management (X post)
“Why short companies that are making all the money?”
Alex Karp, Palantir CEO
“He is clearly backing convictions with a highly unconventional portfolio, including sizable shorts against Nvidia and Palantir that amount to roughly $1 billion in exposure.”
Russ Mould, Investment Director, AJ Bell
Unconfirmed
- Burry’s X bio mentions “Cassandra Unchained: Missteps to Mayhem, Coming December 2025”; whether this is a book, talk series or promotional line has not been independently verified.
- It is not yet confirmed that the cited capex will remain underutilized; actual future utilization depends on AI adoption rates and enterprise demand.
- Whether Burry’s puts will realize gains depends on future earnings, sentiment, and liquidity; outcomes remain uncertain until events unfold.
Bottom Line
Michael Burry’s return to public posting and his large put bets against Nvidia and Palantir bring a veteran contrarian’s warning into the center of the AI debate. He has combined cultural signaling with concrete, regulatory-filed positions that materially tilt his fund toward a downside scenario for two of the market’s most prized names.
For investors and policymakers, the episode is a reminder of the twin risks of concentration and leverage in a market driven by a narrow set of megacap narratives. If growth and profitability hold up, Burry’s stance will look premature and costly; if cracks appear, his positions could reap substantial returns and catalyze broader repricing in AI-linked assets.