California faces a sequence of storms this week that are expected to produce widespread rain, heavy mountain snow, strong winds and hazardous surf. The first system arrives Sunday for Northern California and the Central Coast, with steady Sierra snowfall beginning Sunday night; a second, colder wave follows Tuesday into Wednesday and could bring the coldest air to the state in three years. Forecasters say nearly every part of California will see precipitation this week, with unusually widespread snow at higher elevations and a risk of flash flooding, high surf and damaging gusts across coastal and inland areas. Transportation, mountain travel and small waterways are the primary short-term concerns as the systems progress.
Key takeaways
- Nearly all of California is forecast to receive precipitation this week, with many mountain areas seeing snow instead of rain.
- The Sierra Nevada is under a winter-storm warning from 10 p.m. Sunday through 10 p.m. Wednesday, with ski-crest resorts possibly receiving 5 to 7 feet of snow.
- Two heavy-snow pulses are expected: Monday (1–2 in/hr peak) and a colder Tuesday–Wednesday wave that could briefly raise rates to about 3 in/hr in portions between I-80 and Yosemite.
- Bay Area rainfall will intensify Sunday, with the heaviest downpours likely 4–10 p.m.; some Bay Area foothills could see minor flooding and the Santa Cruz Mountains, South Bay and East Bay may get 1–3 inches on Monday.
- Southern and Central Coastlines face a squall line Monday with flash flood potential (as much as 1 inch in an hour), damaging gusts, and a low chance of waterspouts or a brief tornado.
- Hazardous seas are likely through the week: breaking waves up to 15 ft on the North Coast, up to 20 ft on the Central Coast and 10–15 ft on the South Coast, peaking Tuesday–Wednesday.
- Wind gusts in Sierra communities could reach 50 mph, with ridge-top gusts up to 100 mph; the Grapevine and other I-5 passes may see accumulating snow and travel disruptions.
Background
California’s late-winter pattern this season has shifted toward more Pacific-origin storms riding along a progressively colder airmass. A sequence of low-pressure systems and embedded frontal bands will sweep onshore from the Pacific, a setup that often yields mixed precipitation: rain at low elevations and heavy wet or dry snow higher up. In this event, the second system is forecast to pull significantly colder air into the state, creating a deeper snow line and increasing snowfall ratios compared with a typical mild winter storm.
State and local agencies have experience with multi-day storm episodes, including travel closures, power outages and localized flooding. The Sierra Nevada’s higher elevations routinely accumulate large totals during such patterns; however, the combination of two concentrated snow pulses within 48 hours raises the probability of hazardous travel and avalanche risk. Coastal communities and Southern California shorelines are also more vulnerable to rapid-onset flooding and dangerous surf when strong onshore flow accompanies convective bands.
Main event
The first storm will begin Sunday in Northern California and along the Central Coast; morning showers are likely in Marin, Sonoma, San Francisco and San Mateo counties and will increase through the day. By midday, steady rain is expected in San Francisco and Oakland, spreading east later in the afternoon and evening; the most intense Bay Area downpours are forecast between roughly 4 p.m. and 10 p.m. Monday’s band could deliver the heaviest totals for many foothill and coastal zones.
In the Sierra Nevada, a long winter-storm warning is in place from 10 p.m. Sunday through 10 p.m. Wednesday. Resorts along the crest could see 5 to 7 feet of cumulative snowfall, with the first heavy burst arriving Monday and a colder, stronger pulse arriving Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. Snowfall rates will peak at 1–2 inches per hour in the first wave and may climb toward 3 inches per hour in the second, colder wave between Interstate 80 and Yosemite.
Central and Southern coastal counties from Monterey to San Diego are in the crosshairs of Monday’s squall line. Forecasters warn of intense convective downpours that could produce up to an inch of rain in an hour, leading to flash flooding; damaging gusts capable of downing branches and power lines; and a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk of severe thunderstorms that includes a low chance of waterspouts or brief tornadoes.
Elsewhere, Interstate 5 passes in both Northern and Southern California are likely to see accumulating snow, with more than a foot forecast at Black Butte Summit (Siskiyou County) near Mount Shasta on Tuesday and several inches along the Grapevine early Wednesday. High surf is expected to worsen conditions along the coast all week, with peak breaking waves Tuesday and Wednesday.
Analysis & implications
The near-total statewide precipitation forecast means the impacts will be widespread and varied. Lowland urban areas should prepare for periods of heavy rain and urban runoff, while mountain communities must plan for rapid snow loading on roads and infrastructure. The two-wave snow pattern increases the chance that travel restrictions or chain controls will be imposed for extended periods on key corridors such as I-80, I-5 and mountain passes serving the Sierra and Southern California ranges.
Economically, prolonged disruptions to road freight and mountain tourism could be significant over the Presidents Day period. Ski areas may record excellent powder accumulations, but service interruptions—closures of lifts, parking lots and access roads—are likely during the strongest pulses. Utility providers typically stage crews ahead of known wind and snow events; nonetheless, gusts in the 40–50 mph range in communities and much higher on ridgelines create a material risk of localized outages.
Public safety messaging should emphasize both immediate and cascading hazards: driving on wet or snowy roads, flooded low-lying streets, rockslides on steep corridors, and coastal erosion from high surf. Emergency managers will need to monitor small streams and urban drainage systems, as rapid rainfall rates—especially along the Central and Southern Coast on Monday—can produce flash flooding faster than soils can absorb water.
Comparison & data
| Region | Notable forecast |
|---|---|
| Sierra Nevada (crest) | 5–7 ft snow total; peak rates 1–3 in/hr; ridge gusts up to 100 mph |
| Bay Area (foothills/coast) | 1–3 in rainfall in heavier bands; heaviest Sunday evening–Monday |
| Central/Southern Coast | Convective squall line Monday: ~1 in/hr possible, flash flooding, damaging gusts |
| Ocean/coastal surf | Breaking waves: North Coast up to 15 ft, Central Coast up to 20 ft, South Coast 10–15 ft |
| I-5 passes (e.g., Grapevine) | Accumulating snow: several inches to 1+ ft in spots; travel impacts likely |
The table above condenses the principal numerical forecasts that forecasters have highlighted: snowfall totals, snowfall rates, expected rainfall intensities and surf heights. These figures reflect official warnings and forecast model guidance as of Feb. 15, 2026, and are intended to provide context for planning and travel decisions during the multi-day event.
Reactions & quotes
Officials and meteorologists are urging residents and travelers to monitor local forecasts and prepare for rapidly changing conditions. Emergency management agencies emphasize the need to have plans for alternate travel, supplies in case of short-term outages, and awareness of flood-prone routes.
“We expect major to extreme travel impacts in the Sierra over Presidents Day with brief periods of very heavy snowfall and high winds on the ridgelines,”
National Weather Service (regional forecast briefing)
That statement from the National Weather Service summarizes the core concern for mountain travel: heavy snowfall rates combined with strong winds that can cause whiteout conditions and stranded vehicles. Agencies responsible for mountain highways typically issue chain controls or temporary closures under these circumstances, and travelers should check Caltrans and local advisories before departing.
Local meteorologists have highlighted the unusual reach of this event, with snow levels expected lower than in recent years across some foothill communities.
“This sequence will bring the coldest airmass we’ve seen in roughly three years, which is why snow could mix or fall in places that normally only see rain,”
Anthony Edwards, Newsroom Meteorologist, San Francisco Chronicle
Edwards’ assessment underlines the prospective shift toward colder profiles, which changes not only precipitation type but also impacts such as road icing and longer-lasting snowpack at mid-elevations. His reporting has tracked the timing of pulse arrivals and how they translate into localized hazard windows.
Unconfirmed
- Exact placement of the heaviest rain band near San Francisco is still model-sensitive and could shift north or south, changing local totals by an inch or more.
- The occurrence and location of any waterspouts or brief tornadoes along the Central and Southern Coast remain uncertain; the overall risk is low but not zero.
- Precise snowfall totals at individual ski resort lots depend on local elevation and wind redistribution; ridge and lee effects could alter measured accumulations from forecasts.
Bottom line
A series of Pacific storms will affect nearly every part of California this week, producing rain, heavy Sierra snow, damaging gusts and hazardous surf. The sequence—two concentrated snow pulses in the Sierra and a convective squall line along the Central and Southern Coast—creates a mix of flooding, travel and coastal hazards that will evolve rapidly over a few days.
Residents should monitor official forecasts from the National Weather Service, heed local emergency advisories, and avoid nonessential travel in mountain and coastal areas during peak periods. For planners and businesses, expect potential short-term disruptions to freight, mountain tourism and coastal operations through midweek; adaptive measures and situational awareness will reduce risk as conditions change.
Sources
- San Francisco Chronicle (news report; Feb. 15, 2026)
- National Weather Service (official forecast and warnings)
- Caltrans (California Department of Transportation: travel advisories)