Lead
Chelsea will meet holders Paris St-Germain in the UEFA Champions League last 16, with first legs scheduled for 10 and 11 March and returns on 17 and 18 March. Manchester City have been paired with Real Madrid for the fifth consecutive knockout phase meeting between the clubs. Six Premier League teams progressed to the last 16 but there are no all-English ties; Arsenal, Newcastle United, Liverpool, Tottenham and Chelsea all face continental opposition. The final is set for 30 May at the Puskas Arena in Budapest.
Key Takeaways
- Chelsea vs PSG is a marquee last-16 tie; the sides last met in the 2023 Fifa Club World Cup final in New Jersey, a match Chelsea won 3-0.
- Manchester City will play Real Madrid in the last 16, marking their fifth straight season meeting in Champions League knockouts.
- Six English clubs reached the last 16: Arsenal, Manchester City, Newcastle United, Liverpool, Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea; there are no domestic ties.
- First-leg matches are on , second legs on , with Newcastle hosting Barcelona in the opening tie.
- Opta model probabilities list Arsenal as favourites (27.40%), followed by Bayern Munich (14.28%) and Liverpool (12.83%); Chelsea are given 6.86% and PSG 4.64%.
- If Newcastle and Tottenham both progress, they would be on course to meet in the quarter-finals; Chelsea and Liverpool occupy the other quarter-final path.
- Tottenham — Europa League winners last season — are long odds to win the Champions League (1.22% in Opta’s model) but remain in the competition and could meet Arsenal in later rounds.
Background
The Champions League draw formalises the knockout roadmap after a group stage that saw Arsenal top their section with a perfect 8/8 record, finishing three points clear of Bayern Munich. Six Premier League clubs advanced to the last 16, illustrating the league’s strength in Europe this season. UEFA rules prevented teams from the same national association meeting at this stage, which is why there are no all-English ties despite the heavy English representation.
Historically the Champions League draw and bracket shape outcomes well before kickoff: recurring fixtures such as City v Real reflect recent dominance by those clubs in both domestic and continental competitions. Stakeholders — clubs, broadcasters and national leagues — monitor draws closely because they influence scheduling, travel and commercial planning. The tournament’s single-match final is set at the Puskas Arena in Budapest on , a neutral venue selected well in advance.
Main Event
Chelsea’s draw with PSG returns two high-profile clubs to a competitive European tie. Chelsea’s director of football, David Barnard, characterised the match as demanding but not intimidating and urged a game-by-game approach. Chelsea boss Liam Rosenior, who joined from Strasbourg in January, expressed excitement at the prospect of facing PSG and praised Luis Enrique’s work at the French club.
Manchester City travel to face Real Madrid, continuing a recent rivalry in knockout rounds; City won in Madrid during the group phase in December, and the clubs have faced each other nine times since April 2022. City’s director of football, Hugo Viana, framed the tie as a big, almost final-like encounter and underlined the challenge of repeated high-stakes meetings with Real.
Newcastle will host Barcelona in the first leg while Liverpool draw Galatasaray, and Tottenham meet Atletico Madrid. Liverpool ambassador Ian Rush highlighted the home-second-leg advantage at Anfield and the expected influence of its atmosphere. These fixtures pair established European contenders with clubs that have resurged domestically or carry continental pedigree.
Analysis & Implications
From a sporting perspective, Chelsea vs PSG is a test of current squad depth and tactical adaptability; PSG lead Ligue 1 and possess elite attacking options, while Chelsea have sought to stabilise under new leadership. The tie will show whether Chelsea’s recent recruitment and coaching changes have produced immediate resilience against top continental opposition. For PSG, progress would reaffirm their status as title contenders beyond domestic dominance.
Man City v Real Madrid presents both narrative continuity and competitive significance. Repeated confrontations have generated mutual familiarity that can narrow margins; small tactical adjustments and individual moments will likely decide outcomes. For City, advancing would sustain their continental ambitions; for Madrid, elimination would be a significant setback given their historic record in the competition.
Opta’s probabilistic model assigns Arsenal the highest chance of winning the tournament (27.40%), reflecting their perfect group run, strong squad balance and league form. These modelled probabilities are informative for assessing likelihoods but are not deterministic; the knockout format, injuries and single-match variance can yield surprises. Tottenham remain outsiders in the market, but knockout football often produces upsets and momentum swings.
Comparison & Data
| Team | Opta win probability (%) |
|---|---|
| Arsenal | 27.40 |
| Bayern Munich | 14.28 |
| Liverpool | 12.83 |
| Manchester City | 10.79 |
| Real Madrid | 2.78 |
| Chelsea | 6.86 |
| PSG | 4.64 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 1.22 |
The table summarises Opta’s pre-knockout odds published following the draw. Arsenal’s high rating stems from an unbeaten group stage and consistent underlying metrics; Bayern, Liverpool and City follow as the most likely challengers in the model. Probabilities reflect model inputs at a moment in time and do not account for injuries, suspension developments or form swings between now and the knockout dates.
Reactions & Quotes
Club officials, former players and managers gave measured responses, balancing respect for opponents with confidence in their own squads. Chelsea framed the tie as demanding but within reach, City presented the tie as significant and familiar, and PSG and Barcelona coaches emphasised respect for oppositions.
“It’ll be tough but it holds no fear for us.”
David Barnard, Chelsea director of football
This comment accompanied Barnard’s broader point that Chelsea will approach the tie one match at a time rather than preempting later rounds. It reflects a cautious optimism from club management after recent structural changes.
“It’s a big game for both teams. It’s like a final.”
Hugo Viana, Manchester City director of football
Viana’s wording underlines how clubs treat City–Real fixtures as high-stakes. City officials have repeatedly framed these meetings as decisive moments for the season’s continental ambitions.
“It will be fascinating to play against one of the best English teams… but it will not be about revenge.”
Luis Enrique, PSG head coach
Luis Enrique stressed that the match is a fresh contest rather than retribution for past results, signalling a professional focus on preparation and tactical planning.
Unconfirmed
- The Opta probabilities are model outputs and do not guarantee outcomes; they should not be treated as certain predictions.
- Any last-minute schedule adjustments or broadcasting-driven changes to kickoff times beyond the published match dates remain possible and are not yet announced.
- Specific squad availability (injuries/suspensions) for each tie close to matchdays may alter pre-tie assessments and are not fully known at the time of the draw.
Bottom Line
The last-16 draw sets several high-profile and narrative-rich ties: Chelsea v PSG and City v Real carry both historical context and immediate tactical significance, while the strong English presence underscores the Premier League’s European footprint this season. Opta’s model highlights Arsenal as favourites based on group-stage form, but knockout football’s variability means probabilities are provisional, not definitive.
Fans and clubs should expect tightly contested first legs on and decisive returns on . The draw has already shaped potential quarter-final routes and storylines to follow toward the final in Budapest on . Close attention to squad news, tactical setups and match-day conditions will be necessary for clearer forecasts as the ties approach.