Chileans go to the polls on Sunday, Nov. 16, 2025, in an election set against a backdrop of rising concern about violent crime and immigration. Polls show a center-left candidate leading but no contender appears likely to win an outright majority, making a runoff the probable outcome. The campaign tone has shifted sharply rightward on security and migration, while a 2023 law reintroducing compulsory voting raises the prospect of millions of previously disengaged voters changing the race’s dynamics. The outcome will shape Chile’s policy direction on law enforcement, migration and the role of the state.
Key Takeaways
- Election date: Nov. 16, 2025; a second-round runoff is expected if no candidate wins a majority.
- Current polling (approx.): Jeannette Jara 30%, José Antonio Kast 22%, Johannes Kaiser 15%.
- Compulsory voting reinstated in 2023 could mobilize millions of new or previously inactive voters, adding uncertainty to turnout and preferences.
- Security is the top voter concern: 63% of adults list violent crime among their highest priorities.
- Migrant flows are prominent in the campaign: roughly 711,000 Venezuelans have sought residency in Chile since 2017.
- José Antonio Kast (59) is the main conservative; Jeannette Jara (51) represents the Communist Party; Johannes Kaiser (49) runs to Kast’s right on many issues.
- Right-leaning vote fragmentation may allow a center-left candidate to reach the runoff despite strong rightward rhetoric during the campaign.
Background
Four years after Gabriel Boric’s victory in 2021, Chile’s electorate is deeply polarized. Boric’s presidency and a broader regional ebb and flow in political sentiment set the stage for a campaign in which security and immigration have surged to the top of voters’ concerns. Chile had long been seen as one of Latin America’s safer and more economically stable countries; the perception of worsening public safety has shifted public debate and voter priorities.
The reintroduction of compulsory voting in 2023 is a major institutional change. Political scientists and campaign strategists say the new rule could bring many citizens to ballot boxes who previously stayed home, and those voters’ preferences are difficult to predict. Meanwhile, memories of Chile’s 1973–1990 dictatorship and the human rights abuses of that era continue to shape political rhetoric and candidate positioning, with sharp differences over how to remember and address that legacy.
Main Event
The campaign has been dominated by pledges of tougher policing and stricter controls on immigration. Conservative candidates have adopted hardline language on crime: some have called for harsher sentences and expedited removal of undocumented migrants. Those stances have resonated in parts of the electorate alarmed by an increase in violent incidents linked to transnational criminal networks.
Jeannette Jara, the Communist Party candidate and a former minister in Mr. Boric’s government, has focused messaging on economic relief, proposing bigger pensions, lower electricity costs and a major housing program. Polling places her ahead of the conservative field, a position that, if sustained, would make her the likely center-left contender in a runoff.
José Antonio Kast, who is running for president for a third time and is aligned with the Republican Party, has pared back some of his most divisive proposals to emphasize law-and-order themes and immigration controls. Johannes Kaiser, a libertarian former lawmaker who built a following online, has pushed a more radical small-state agenda and taken provocative stances on issues including abortion, vaccinations and international courts.
Analysis & Implications
The reinstatement of mandatory voting is the single biggest structural change shaping this election. Compulsory voting typically raises turnout among less politically engaged cohorts, whose preferences are not well captured by existing polls; that could advantage parties with strong mobilization machines or appeal to voters frustrated with the status quo. Analysts warn that poll leads taken from current samples may shift once these voters cast ballots.
The prominence of security and migration in the campaign benefits right-leaning candidates in a country where these topics are seen as decisive by many voters. But when the conservative vote is split among multiple candidates, it creates a path for a unified left or center-left contender to reach a runoff. Strategic voting in the second round, and alliances among parties whose voters supported different first-round candidates, will be decisive.
Internationally, a shift to the right in Chile would align it with several recent moves in the region, altering cooperation on migration, climate agreements and human rights mechanisms. A government focused on rolling back regulations and reducing state roles in the economy would likely pursue markedly different trade and environmental policies than a leftist administration.
Comparison & Data
| Candidate | Party/Position | Age | Approx. Poll Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jeannette Jara | Communist Party / center-left | 51 | ~30% |
| José Antonio Kast | Republican Party / conservative | 59 | ~22% |
| Johannes Kaiser | National Libertarian / far-right | 49 | ~15% |
The table shows the leading candidates’ basic profiles and approximate polling support ahead of the Nov. 16 vote. Polling data are snapshots and do not fully capture the impact of compulsory voting or late shifts among undecided voters. Turnout patterns, second-round coalitions and vote transfers will determine the final alignment in a runoff scenario.
Reactions & Quotes
Campaign events have underscored voter concern about public safety. At right-leaning rallies candidates have used stark language to signal a tougher stance on crime, while center-left events emphasize social and economic measures as tools to reduce insecurity.
“Bullet or jail,” a conservative rally chant echoed a candidate’s pledge to crack down on drug trafficking.
Campaign attendee / reported remark
Political analysts warn that compulsory voting changes the electorate’s composition and could produce unexpected outcomes.
“It is a huge change,” said a Chilean political scientist, noting the potential for newly mobilized voters to reshape the contest.
Claudia Heiss, academic
Unconfirmed
- The precise size and partisan lean of newly mobilized voters under compulsory voting remain uncertain and may differ from current polling assumptions.
- Claims about specific candidates’ willingness to support extra-constitutional measures are based on past remarks and require contextual confirmation about intent and present policy plans.
- How many Venezuelan applicants will translate into long-term demographic or electoral shifts is not yet established; residency applications since 2017 total about 711,000 but their political impact is uncertain.
Bottom Line
This election is likely to be decided over two rounds, with the composition of the electorate and vote transfers after the first round determining the final outcome. Security and migration dominate public concern, benefitting candidates who emphasize tough enforcement, but political fragmentation on the right gives the center-left a viable path to a runoff and possibly victory.
Observers should watch turnout among newly re-enfranchised voters, how first-round losers advise their supporters ahead of a runoff, and whether campaign rhetoric softens or hardens as parties seek broader coalitions. The result will have short-term consequences for policing and migration policy and longer-term implications for Chile’s economic and international alignment.
Sources
- The New York Times — news reporting on the Nov. 16, 2025 Chile election