China posted a striking trade rebound in the combined January-February reporting period, with exports rising 21.8% year-on-year and the trade surplus jumping to a record $213.62 billion. Customs data released on March 10, 2026 show exports and imports far exceeded market forecasts, underscoring unexpected external demand even as tensions with the United States persist. Officials and analysts pointed to calendar effects from a later Lunar New Year and stronger consumer activity after an extended holiday as partial explanations, while some say those factors do not fully account for the magnitude of the surprise. The numbers arrived amid Beijing’s annual “Two Sessions” meetings where leaders affirmed modest growth targets and weighed policy options.
Key Takeaways
- Trade surplus for combined January-February rose to $213.62 billion, well above the $179.6 billion economists expected.
- Exports climbed 21.8% year-on-year in Jan-Feb versus consensus forecast of 7.1% (Reuters poll).
- Imports grew 19.8% year-on-year in the same period, ahead of the 6.3% expected rise.
- Trade with the U.S. fell 16.9% to 609.71 billion yuan ($88.22 billion) compared with Jan-Feb 2025.
- Trade with the EU expanded 19.9% to 998.94 billion yuan, and trade with ASEAN rose 20.3% to 1.24 trillion yuan.
- Consumer price inflation accelerated to 1.3% in February, the largest jump since January 2023 and above the 0.8% forecast.
- Beijing’s GDP target for 2026 was set at a modest 4.5%–5.0% range at the Two Sessions, reducing near-term odds of major fiscal stimulus.
Background
China traditionally reports combined January and February trade figures to smooth distortions from the shifting Lunar New Year holiday, which can materially affect month-to-month comparisons. The 2026 Lunar New Year fell later than in 2025, creating a year-on-year timing distortion that analysts say boosted the headline growth rates for exports and imports. Nonetheless, customs officials and private forecasters noted that calendar effects alone are unlikely to explain the full scale of the surprise in outbound shipments.
The data lands amid a complex external backdrop: Beijing and Washington have traded tariff measures since U.S. President Donald Trump returned to the White House in January 2025. Although talks and a summit meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping in October 2025 eased some political friction, a patchwork of duties remains in place. Some tariffs were reduced to a global 10% level after a U.S. Supreme Court decision affecting emergency-authority tariffs, but earlier measures under Section 301 and Section 232 still apply on many goods.
Main Event
On March 10, China’s General Administration of Customs released its combined trade statistics for January and February showing exports up 21.8% year-on-year and imports up 19.8%. The resulting trade surplus—$213.62 billion—exceeded the $179.6 billion market expectation cited in pre-release surveys. The divergence from forecasts was striking: economists polled by Reuters had anticipated substantially more modest growth in both flows.
Detailed bilateral flows showed the United States as an outlier: two-way trade with the U.S. dropped 16.9% to 609.71 billion yuan ($88.22 billion) compared with the same two-month stretch in 2025. By contrast, China’s commerce with Europe and ASEAN expanded strongly, with the EU up 19.9% to 998.94 billion yuan and ASEAN up 20.3% to 1.24 trillion yuan, signaling regionally differentiated demand patterns.
Domestic price data released alongside trade figures showed consumer prices climbed 1.3% in February from a year earlier, accelerating from January’s 0.2% rise and overshooting economists’ 0.8% forecast. Policymakers met at the Two Sessions in early March where Premier Li Qiang acknowledged tariff headwinds and reaffirmed a modest GDP target of 4.5%–5.0% for 2026, the lowest range since the early 1990s.
Analysis & Implications
The stronger-than-expected export performance points to resilient external demand for many Chinese-made goods despite elevated U.S. duties on selected items. Firms that diversified supply chains or shifted product mixes toward categories with lower effective tariffs could be contributing to the headline strength. At the same time, the marked drop in trade with the U.S. suggests tariff-driven redirection of flows toward other markets or re-routing through regional partners.
Domestic implications matter as well: higher consumer inflation and robust trade receipts can ease near-term growth pressures, reducing the urgency for large-scale stimulus. Analysts such as Zhiwei Zhang of Pinpoint Asset Management have argued the combination of strong external performance and a low official growth target makes fresh macro stimulus less likely in the short run. Still, sectors exposed to U.S. demand or high-tariff coverage may remain under stress.
On the geopolitical front, the data complicate narratives on the economic cost of tariff disputes. While some indicators show clear frictions with the United States, overall export resilience and gains with Europe and ASEAN underscore China’s ability to sustain trade momentum through diversified markets and product segments. That said, sustained high tariffs on particular product lines could still depress investment and reconfigure global supply chains over time.
Comparison & Data
| Metric | Jan-Feb 2026 (Actual) | Market Expectation |
|---|---|---|
| Exports YoY | +21.8% | +7.1% |
| Imports YoY | +19.8% | +6.3% |
| Trade Surplus | $213.62 billion | $179.6 billion |
The table highlights the gap between consensus forecasts and the customs release. Part of the outperformance likely reflects holiday timing—Lunar New Year occurring later than in 2025—shifting shipments into the Jan-Feb window. However, cross-border demand patterns and inventory cycles also played roles, as did sectoral composition changes within exports (electronics, machinery, and consumer goods saw varied performance).
Reactions & Quotes
Domestic and international responses were mixed, balancing surprise at the headline strength with caution about sustainability. Officials emphasized normalcy and market resilience, while market commentators stressed calendar effects and structural adjustments in trade flows.
“The late Lunar New Year boosted year-on-year comparisons, but it probably does not fully explain the export surprise,”
Zhiwei Zhang, Pinpoint Asset Management (asset manager analysis)
Zhang’s observation framed much commentary: calendar distortion helps the numbers, but additional demand-side explanations are needed to account for the magnitude of the beat.
“We note robust demand across Europe and ASEAN even as trade with the U.S. fell, pointing to a geographically differentiated recovery in external markets,”
Customs data summary (official trade report)
China’s customs agency underscored the regional contrasts in its release, noting strong activity with the EU and ASEAN as offsets to weaker U.S. flows.
Unconfirmed
- The exact share of the export surprise attributable to the late Lunar New Year remains debated and not precisely quantified by official sources.
- Claims that no additional stimulus will follow the Two Sessions are tentative; policymakers could change course if growth softens later in 2026.
- The reported “effective tariff rate” near 30% on many goods shipped to the U.S. is an industry estimate from trade analysts and varies considerably by product and route.
Bottom Line
The Jan-Feb 2026 trade release shows China’s external sector outperforming expectations, with a record two-month surplus and double-digit export growth that belie some concerns about trade friction. While calendar effects from the late Lunar New Year likely amplified year-on-year rates, robust demand from Europe and ASEAN and continued factory activity also appear to be driving factors. Policymakers at the Two Sessions signaled a conservative macro stance—setting a 4.5%–5.0% GDP target—and the data may reduce near-term pressure for large-scale fiscal stimulus.
For markets and businesses, the takeaway is nuanced: China’s aggregate trade resilience eases some downside risk, but the sharp fall in U.S. bilateral trade and the patchwork of remaining tariffs mean firms should continue monitoring tariff exposure and regional demand shifts. Investors and policymakers will watch upcoming monthly flows and sectoral detail to assess whether the early-2026 strength is sustained or partly a timing-driven spike.