China on 15 November 2025 publicly advised its citizens to avoid travel to Japan after comments by Japan’s new prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, about a hypothetical armed attack on Taiwan. Beijing’s embassy in Tokyo posted on WeChat that recent Japanese remarks had “severely damaged the atmosphere for people-to-people exchanges” and warned of risks to Chinese nationals in Japan. Tokyo rejected the suggestion that its official position on Taiwan had changed and said it had summoned China’s ambassador after inflammatory posts by a Chinese consul general were removed. Both capitals have exchanged diplomatic démarches as tensions around Taiwan and regional security have spiked.
Key takeaways
- On 7 November 2025, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi told Japan’s parliament that an armed attack on Taiwan could, under certain conditions, justify Japan deploying forces under collective self-defence.
- China’s embassy in Japan posted a travel advisory on 15 November 2025 urging citizens to avoid travel to Japan, citing risks to personal safety.
- Beijing summoned Japan’s ambassador; Tokyo also summoned China’s ambassador following a since-removed social media post by Chinese consul general Xue Jian in Osaka.
- Japan’s ruling party moved to declare Xue persona non grata after a removed post that appeared to call for violence against Takaichi.
- Takaichi took office in October 2025 and has since softened some rhetoric but said she will not retract her Nov. 7 statement while promising to avoid citing specific scenarios.
- Taiwan lies about 100 km from Japan’s nearest island; the 2015 security legislation permits limited collective self-defence if Japan’s survival is threatened.
Background
Japan and China maintain deep economic ties but a long history of distrust shaped by wartime occupation, territorial disputes and military competition. Japan governed Taiwan until 1945, and the island’s close geographic proximity — roughly 100 kilometres from some Japanese islands — makes developments there strategically sensitive for Tokyo. Since 2015, revisions to Japan’s security laws have allowed the country to exercise collective self-defence under narrow conditions, a legal framework invoked repeatedly in domestic debate about Japan’s role in regional security.
For decades, Tokyo and Washington have relied on strategic ambiguity about the precise circumstances in which they would use military force to defend Taiwan, partly to deter coercion without provoking escalation. Recent shifts in Japanese politics, including a more hawkish prime minister in October 2025, have raised concerns in Beijing and in regional capitals about a possible hardening of posture. Those shifts intersect with domestic politics in both countries, where nationalist sentiment and media coverage can amplify diplomatic friction.
Main event
On 7 November 2025, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi told Japan’s parliament that if an armed attack on Taiwan involved battleships and the use of force, that could amount to a situation threatening Japan’s survival and could meet the threshold for collective self-defence. Her phrasing prompted immediate scrutiny in Beijing, which regards Taiwan as part of its territory and has not ruled out force to achieve reunification.
On 15 November 2025 China’s embassy in Tokyo published a WeChat post warning Chinese nationals to avoid travel to Japan, saying recent Japanese leadership comments had damaged people-to-people exchanges and posed risks to citizens’ safety. The embassy said the foreign ministry and Chinese diplomatic missions in Japan were making the reminder “solemnly.”
Diplomatic escalation continued when the Chinese consul general in Osaka, Xue Jian, posted a now-deleted social-media message that referenced violent language about the prime minister; Japan’s ruling party subsequently voted to seek persona non grata status for the consul. Tokyo then summoned China’s ambassador; Beijing, in turn, summoned Japan’s ambassador, underscoring the rapid bilateral strain.
Analysis & implications
The advisory and reciprocal diplomatic démarches signal a deterioration in bilateral communications over a narrow but critically sensitive security question. Economically, China and Japan remain major trading partners, so a prolonged political freeze would likely focus on diplomatic and security channels rather than immediate, broad-based economic decoupling. Still, targeted measures—tourism advisories, cancelation of cultural exchanges, or restrictions on consular services—could have near-term impacts on people-to-people ties.
Strategically, the episode sharpens a debate in Tokyo about whether to clarify or maintain ambiguity on Taiwan. A clearer commitment to intervene would strengthen deterrence from one perspective but risks provoking Beijing and complicating ties with neighbours and partners. For Washington and other allies, Japan’s posture affects planning assumptions in the region, potentially pressuring the U.S. and partners to reassess contingency coordination without abandoning ambiguity entirely.
Domestically, Takaichi faces a balancing act: reassure voters and coalition partners of Japan’s readiness while avoiding further diplomatic fallout that could harm trade or citizen safety. Beijing’s travel advisory appears intended to pressure Tokyo politically by elevating public concern for Chinese nationals abroad; the move also signals Beijing’s willingness to use non-military levers to influence foreign audiences and diplomatic costs.
Comparison & data
| Event | Date |
|---|---|
| Takaichi’s parliamentary remarks | 7 Nov 2025 |
| China embassy travel advisory (WeChat) | 15 Nov 2025 |
| 2015 security legislation allowing limited collective self-defence | 2015 |
The table highlights the compressed timeline from a parliamentary remark to a formal travel advisory within eight days. The 2015 legal change remains the formal basis for Tokyo’s invocation of collective self-defence but has been deployed cautiously by successive administrations. Geographic proximity—Taiwan roughly 100 km from the nearest Japanese island—means Tokyo must weigh immediate security risks against economic and diplomatic costs when shaping public policy.
Reactions & quotes
Chinese foreign ministry and embassy statements framed the advisory as a safety precaution and a response to what Beijing described as provocative political rhetoric in Tokyo. Officials in Beijing said the advisory was intended to protect citizens rather than to sever ties.
“Recently, Japanese leaders have made blatantly provocative remarks regarding Taiwan, severely damaging the atmosphere for people-to-people exchanges.”
Chinese embassy in Japan (WeChat post)
Japan’s government rejected any change in its policy toward Taiwan and criticized the inflammatory comments from a Chinese diplomat as inappropriate. Tokyo emphasized that it would maintain diplomatic channels while protecting Japanese nationals and its own officials.
“If an emergency in Taiwan entails battleships and the use of force, then that could constitute a situation threatening the survival [of Japan].”
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, parliamentary remarks, 7 Nov 2025
The now-removed post by the Chinese consul general in Osaka attracted particular attention and prompted calls in Japan to declare the consul persona non grata; Tokyo called the message unacceptable and requested its removal.
“(cutting) off that dirty neck” (post later removed)
Chinese consul general, Osaka (Xue Jian) — removed social post
Unconfirmed
- There is no public evidence that Beijing has made a decision to use military force against Taiwan in direct response to Takaichi’s remarks; such planning, if it exists, has not been confirmed.
- Reports of imminent threats to individual Chinese citizens in Japan remain unverified; the embassy framed the advisory as a precaution rather than citing specific incidents.
Bottom line
The episode shows how political rhetoric about Taiwan can rapidly translate into diplomatic friction and actions that affect ordinary people, such as travel advisories and the suspension of exchanges. While neither side has severed formal ties, the exchange of summons and the persona non grata motion underline a spike in bilateral tensions that will require careful management to avoid escalation.
Looking ahead, expect Tokyo to emphasize legal and procedural limits on any military response while Beijing uses diplomatic and public measures to signal displeasure. The situation increases the likelihood that regional allies and partners will intensify consultations to prevent miscalculation and to preserve channels for de-escalation.
Sources
- The Guardian (news report)