Lead
Week 12 of the 2025 college football regular season arrives with three Saturdays left before conference title games and the College Football Playoff picture tightens. Saturday’s slate features high-stakes matchups including No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 22 Pitt, No. 11 Oklahoma at No. 4 Alabama, and No. 10 Texas at No. 5 Georgia. The Athletic is providing live coverage of Notre Dame–Pitt, and analysts have flagged these games as pivotal for Playoff hopes, conference races and roster narratives. Expect immediate implications for seeding, transfer-portal chatter and coaching evaluations depending on outcomes.
Key Takeaways
- Pitt (7-2, 5-1 ACC) hosts No. 9 Notre Dame (7-2) at noon ET on ABC; Pitt has won five straight since freshman Mason Heintschel became the starter.
- Alabama (No. 4) hosts No. 11 Oklahoma at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC; Alabama has eight consecutive wins and is modeled at roughly a 90% chance to reach the Playoff after recovering from an early loss to Florida State.
- No. 10 Texas visits No. 5 Georgia at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC; Austin Mock’s model currently gives Texas an 8% Playoff chance that jumps to about 35% with a win in Athens.
- Notre Dame likely needs to win its final three — Pitt, Syracuse and Stanford — after an 0-2 start to preserve Playoff hopes.
- Texas Tech’s offseason additions lifted the Red Raiders into No. 6 in the CFP rankings after a dominant win over BYU.
- Ohio State remains No. 1 in the CFP and AP polls, continuing a methodical approach on offense and relying heavily on receiver Jeremiah Smith.
- Coaching developments continue to swirl: there are ongoing legal and contract stories (including the Brian Kelly–LSU dispute) and persistent movement on the carousel, but no high‑profile firings were recorded last weekend.
Background
The regular season now has three Saturdays remaining before conference championship games and the Playoff selection process becomes definitive. Conference permutations — especially in the SEC and ACC — mean several teams are playing for more than a single win: they are playing to keep realistic Playoff paths open or to secure conference titles. The increased movement in the transfer portal and rising NIL activity have also changed roster construction, with programs balancing retention and acquisition amid new rules and market forces.
Notre Dame’s season has been a tale of recovery after an 0-2 start; the Irish sit at 7-2 and must string wins together to re-enter Playoff discussions. Pitt’s run under sophomore leadership at quarterback has given the Panthers momentum in the ACC race. Meanwhile, Alabama’s midseason rebound has refocused national attention on the Crimson Tide even as questions about the program’s post-Saban personnel strategies simmer, including how front-office leaders like general manager Courtney Morgan plan to manage the portal and retention.
Main Event
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 22 Pitt (noon ET, ABC) shapes up as a test of Pitt’s recent surge against an Irish team that needs every win to restore Playoff credibility. Pitt has won five straight since Mason Heintschel became the starter, and his command of the offense has coincided with improved production from the Panthers’ skill players. Notre Dame, conversely, seeks more explosive plays from running back Jeremiyah Love after his standout performance against Navy; the Irish will try to avoid a trap game that could derail late-season hopes.
No. 11 Oklahoma at No. 4 Alabama (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC) is effectively an elimination-style matchup for the Sooners’ Playoff aspirations. Alabama, playing its final SEC home game of the year, enters with momentum and widespread expectation to win and shore up a high CFP probability. The game also functions as a measuring stick for how Alabama’s roster-management strategies will be implemented in a post-Saban era, especially in handling the portal and contract incentives.
No. 10 Texas at No. 5 Georgia (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC) carries extra narrative weight: Arch Manning, once a four-time visitor to Georgia in recruitment cycles, chose Texas, but Georgia has nonetheless found stability at quarterback in Gunner Stockton. The matchup in Sanford Stadium could be one of the biggest games there this century and has outsized implications for Texas’ slim Playoff math; a Longhorns upset would dramatically reshape several teams’ chances.
Analysis & Implications
The immediate Playoff implications are straightforward: Alabama and Georgia are in strengthened positions, while teams like Texas and Oklahoma cling to scenarios that require signature wins. Models that compute Playoff odds — such as Austin Mock’s simulations — demonstrate how single outcomes can produce large probabilistic swings, particularly for teams on the bubble. For example, Texas’s modeled chance to make the field would move from about 8% to roughly 35% with a road win at Georgia, illustrating how one result can reweight dozens of simulated brackets.
Conference dynamics are also at play. In the ACC, Pitt’s rise complicates Notre Dame and Syracuse’s paths to the title game, and convoluted tie-breakers mean head-to-head results and divisional records will matter. In the SEC, a loss by Georgia or Alabama could open the door for multiple teams to stake a Playoff case, increasing the likelihood of chaotic selection scenarios and heightening the value of conference championship results.
Off-field factors matter, too. The transfer portal and NIL continue to shape team construction midseason and in the offseason, changing how programs approach immediate competitiveness versus long-term depth. Alabama’s front office discussion about player retention, portal strategies and financial levers signals that roster building will be a strategic chess match this winter for top programs seeking sustained contention.
Comparison & Data
| Team | AP/CFP Rank | Record | Notable Stat |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio State | No. 1 | (record varies by source) | Top-ranked in CFP, AP and internal metrics |
| Georgia | No. 5 | — | Home favorite vs. Texas; Gunner Stockton starting QB |
| Texas | No. 10 | — | Preseason No. 1; Austin Mock: 8% CFP chance pre-game |
| Alabama | No. 4 | — | Eight straight wins; ~90% modeled CFP probability |
| Oklahoma | No. 11 | — | Must-win framing vs. Alabama |
| Notre Dame | No. 9 | 7-2 | Needs remaining wins vs. Pitt, Syracuse, Stanford |
| Pitt | No. 22 | 7-2, 5-1 ACC | Five-game win streak; QB Mason Heintschel |
The table synthesizes rank, record and the headline stat for each highlighted team to show how rankings, recent streaks and roster notes converge. Models and polls differ in methodology — the CFP selection committee uses film study and resume building, while simulation models weight matchup probabilities and remaining schedules — so readers should interpret odds and ranks as different lenses on the same competitive landscape.
Reactions & Quotes
Coaches and broadcasters have framed the stakes succinctly as the weekend approaches.
“It’s not a must-win for us, but every game matters in our race to the ACC title.”
Pat Narduzzi, Pitt head coach
Broadcasters and analysts have also pointed to individual moments that have shaped perceptions of teams and players this season.
“One of the most memorable moments of my career.”
Gus Johnson, Fox Sports (on Omar Cooper Jr.’s catch vs. Penn State)
Unconfirmed
- Whether a particular coaching change will materialize before the end of the regular season — many rumored moves remain speculative and unfinalized.
- The final College Football Playoff format and the timing of any official changes remain under negotiation and are not settled.
- Specific contract or portal moves hinted at in reporting have not all been independently confirmed by schools or agents as of publication.
Bottom Line
Week 12 functions as a late‑season crucible: a small set of games will have outsized influence on conference races and Playoff permutations. Teams like Alabama and Georgia look to cement high seeds, while programs such as Texas, Oklahoma and Notre Dame face near-elimination scenarios where a single result could shift their trajectories.
Readers should watch both game outcomes and the follow-on effects — transfer decisions, coaching movement and committee narratives — that unfold afterward. With three Saturdays left, the margin for error is thin and the next weekend could determine who still controls its destiny versus who must rely on outside help to reach the Playoff.
Sources
- The Athletic via The New York Times — sports reporting and game preview (media)
- College Football Playoff (CFP) — official rankings and committee information (official organization)
- The Athletic — in-depth reporting, projections and staff analysis (media)