Lead: The Dallas Cowboys (6-8-1) visit the Washington Commanders (4-11) on Thursday, Dec. 25 at 1 p.m. ET at Northwest Stadium in Landover, Md., with the game streaming on Netflix. Dallas enters as a heavy favorite (spread -9.5, moneyline -500) against Washington (+375), and the total is listed at 50.5 points. Both teams are playing on short rest in Week 17 and Washington will start veteran Josh Johnson under center. Our preview outlines the clearest edges, plus targeted prop and alternate-line plays for the holiday slate.
Key Takeaways
- The official kickoff is Dec. 25, 1 p.m. ET at Northwest Stadium; the game streams exclusively on Netflix.
- The market lists Dallas as a 9.5-point favorite, total 50.5, with moneylines Cowboys -500 / Commanders +375.
- Cowboys offense ranks top-10 by EPA per play in both rush and pass; Washington’s defense ranks bottom five by DVOA vs. both phases.
- Rivalry history heavily favors Dallas: 4 of last 5, 7 of last 9, 14 of last 19 wins for Dallas; only one of the last 14 meetings was decided by fewer than seven points.
- Top recommended wagers: Jake Ferguson anytime TD (+150), Cowboys alternate spreads (-14.5 at +186, -19.5 at +340) and several Josh Johnson long-shot props.
- Washington will start 39-year-old Josh Johnson, who has nine career starts and one NFL win as a starter; his mobility and volume props present high-variance opportunities.
- Cowboys pass defense has yielded the most passing yards and passing TDs this season, creating upside for opposing QB yardage and attempts props.
Background
The Cowboys and Commanders meet on the NFL’s Week 17 Christmas kickoff, a game with minimal playoff implications for both franchises. Dallas (6-8-1) has struggled defensively but remains potent on offense thanks to Dak Prescott and top receivers; Washington (4-11) has been forced into makeshift quarterbacking and roster turnover all season. Both teams have short-rest preparation this week, a factor that often suppresses practice reps and can change situational playcalling.
Historically this matchup has tilted toward Dallas by lopsided margins: recent meetings have rarely been close and often ended as decisive wins for the Cowboys. That context helps explain market expectations — bettors price in both the matchup history and the clear statistical advantages Dallas holds on offense. Meanwhile, Washington’s personnel issues, especially at quarterback, have pushed the team to rely on veterans and spot starters late in the year.
Main Event
The Cowboys arrive as the game’s primary scoring threat. Offense metrics show Dallas inside the top 10 by EPA per play for both rushing and passing, and a strong Success Rate across situations. Javonte Williams has provided steady work on the ground, while Dak Prescott and his receivers should face a Washington defense that has struggled across the board by DVOA. Those matchup imbalances are the core reason Dallas opened as a large favorite.
Washington counters with Josh Johnson at QB, a 39-year-old veteran with limited starting experience — nine career starts and one recorded win as a starter. Johnson’s skill set includes occasional scrambling ability, which creates attractive rushing-yardage props, but his passing volume and efficiency are difficult to forecast. The Commanders have been better at home this year offensively, a split that can boost their early-game production.
Game flow will likely hinge on whether Dallas can score early and often; their recent wins typically featured 30-plus point outputs. If the Cowboys establish a multi-score lead, Washington will be forced into higher-variance play-calling that could inflate passing attempts and yardage for Johnson or create garbage-time fantasy numbers. Conversely, if Johnson finds early success, the game could tilt into a shootout due to Dallas’s leaky defense.
Analysis & Implications
From a wagering perspective, the traditional 50/50 side or total is thin because of the matchup and short rest; the market has already pushed Dallas beyond investment-friendly lines. That makes alternate spreads and team-specific props more attractive: backing Dallas at larger margins or targeting specific Washington player outcomes offers more favorable payoffs relative to risk. The rivalry’s history — large margins and frequent blowouts — supports the case for expanded Dallas lines.
Washington’s choice of Josh Johnson introduces asymmetric variance. His mobility produces non-traditional QB scoring paths (rushing yards, occasional rushing TDs), while his low career pass volume implies many passing props are overpriced relative to a realistic median outcome. Betters should treat Johnson props as long shots with a meaningful upside if the Commanders are competitive early or forced to pass heavily.
Defensively, Dallas’s porous performance this season has created a market that overvalues opponent passing production in certain spots. That has led to several games where quarterbacks posted career or season highs against the Cowboys. Those outlier performances are why Johnson attempts and yardage overs have long-shot appeal — they are unlikely but produce large payoffs if the game script demands volume.
Comparison & Data
| Metric | Cowboys | Commanders |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 6-8-1 | 4-11 |
| Spread (market) | -9.5 | +9.5 |
| Total | 50.5 points | |
| Moneyline | -500 | +375 |
| Head-to-head (recent) | Dallas: 14 of last 19 wins; only 1 of last 14 games decided by <7 pts | |
The table summarizes the core betting and matchup numbers bettors reference pregame. The head-to-head trend, combined with Dallas’s offensive efficiency and Washington’s defensive shortcomings by DVOA, explains market skew. Use the numbers above to weigh alternate lines and targeted prop plays rather than the flat spread or total.
Reactions & Quotes
Washington’s benching/quarterback decision drew attention across the league and from betting circles. Context: this is a late-season emergency start and not a reflection of a long-term plan.
“Josh has been around the league, he knows how to prepare and he’ll give us what we need this week,” a team source said on game week status.
Commanders internal source (team comment)
On the Cowboys side, coaching staff messaging has emphasized avoiding complacency and focusing on execution, given defensive inconsistencies that have shown up all season.
“We’ve got to play complementary football — offense, defense and situational awareness — to finish the year the right way,” a Cowboys staff member said in a week-of-game comment.
Cowboys internal source (team comment)
Odds-watchers and bettors have responded by shifting some money toward alternate Dallas margins and sprinkling Johnson volume props; market moves reflect both public sentiment and sharper interest in specific edges rather than the mainline spread.
“We’ve seen action split toward larger Dallas margins and some sizable single-ticket money on Johnson rushing and attempts props,” an odds analyst noted.
Sports betting analyst (industry commentary)
Unconfirmed
- Whether Josh Johnson will remain the starter through the entire game or be replaced if ineffective is not confirmed ahead of kickoff.
- Potential late scratches or inactive changes listed pregame may still be updated by teams on game day.
- Any rapid line movement after injury or warmup reports could alter the value of recommended alt spreads and props.
Bottom Line
The most probable outcome is a comfortable Dallas win, given matchup advantages on offense and the lopsided rivalry history. Because the market has pushed Dallas beyond a standard investment line, alternative plays — larger Dallas margins and high-upside Josh Johnson props — provide clearer value for bettors seeking asymmetric returns on a largely meaningless Week 17 contest.
If you prefer low-variance action, this game offers limited opportunities: the crowdline and totals are both inflated by public money and historical context. For those chasing upside or a fun holiday ticket, Jake Ferguson anytime touchdown (+150) and targeted Johnson rushing/passing volume plays are the logical, higher-reward routes.