What’s next for Cuba? Trump tightens oil squeeze as island runs out of jet fuel

Lead

Since the Jan. 3 U.S. operation in Venezuela that left 32 Cubans dead, Washington has intensified pressure on Havana, cutting off Venezuelan oil flows and threatening tariffs on third-party suppliers. The move has coincided with an acute fuel shortfall that has grounded refueling for international carriers and prompted rationing measures at home. President Miguel Díaz-Canel has vowed resistance while offering talks “without pressure or preconditions,” and Cuban authorities are rapidly adopting emergency steps to preserve essential services. The unfolding squeeze poses both a humanitarian risk and a stress test for Cuba’s political resilience.

Key takeaways

• 32 Cuban citizens were killed in the Jan. 3 operation to seize Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, a triggering event cited by Havana.
• U.S. measures since the operation include effectively cutting Cuba off from Venezuelan oil and threatening tariffs on countries that supply it.
• Cuba has warned international carriers they will no longer be able to refuel on the island amid fuel shortages; Air Canada canceled flights and committed to repatriating about 3,000 customers.
• The government has introduced rationing: restricted fuel sales, closures of some tourist venues, shorter school days and a four-day workweek at state enterprises to preserve supplies.
• Mexico dispatched over 800 tons of humanitarian supplies aboard two Mexican Navy ships on Feb. 9 but suspended oil shipments to avoid U.S. tariff exposure.
• Analysts say Cuba today lacks the robust external patronage it enjoyed before the 1990s Special Period, making external rescue more difficult.
• The United Nations warned of a potential humanitarian collapse if oil needs are not met, signaling international concern about services and public welfare.

Background

Cuba’s economy remains tightly linked to external fuel supplies, with Venezuela historically a principal source of subsidized oil and refined products. The Jan. 3 military operation in Venezuela — intended to remove Nicolás Maduro — escalated tensions and is reported by Cuban authorities to have killed 32 of their citizens, prompting a sharp diplomatic rupture. In response, the U.S. administration has labeled Cuba a security concern and taken steps to choke its access to Venezuelan oil and hard currency, increasing isolation.

After the Soviet Union’s collapse in the early 1990s, Cuba endured the ‘Special Period,’ a prolonged economic contraction triggered by the loss of Eastern Bloc support. That era forced deep domestic readjustments; analysts now compare the current strain to that precedent, though the international landscape differs. Cuba secured BRICS ‘partner country’ status in January 2025, which expanded diplomatic ties with Brazil, Russia and China, but those links have yet to translate into immediate large-scale energy shipments that could offset the current gap.

Main event

Following the Venezuela operation, the U.S. moved to throttle Cuba’s oil access and publicly warned other states against resupplying the island by threatening tariffs. Cuban leaders say these moves have sharply reduced incoming fuel and put international aviation refueling at risk. Air Canada announced the cancellation of flights to Cuba and said it would repatriate roughly 3,000 customers already on the island over several days, underscoring the immediate tourism impact.

Havana has rolled out emergency measures aimed at stretching remaining fuel: limits on retail fuel sales, closures of select tourist facilities, shortened school hours and a shift to a four-day workweek at state companies. Officials have framed the steps as necessary to protect essential services such as hospitals, water pumping and public transportation. State media and government statements stress sovereignty and refusal to capitulate to external pressure.

Mexico provided humanitarian relief — more than 800 tonnes of supplies shipped on Feb. 9 by Mexican Navy vessels — while halting oil shipments to avoid sanctions or tariffs. China, Russia and other partners have issued supportive diplomatic statements and indicated they would seek ways to assist, but observers say logistical, legal and geopolitical barriers limit how quickly large-scale fuel deliveries can arrive.

Analysis & implications

The immediate humanitarian dimension is clear: fuel shortages directly threaten electricity, water, medical services and transport. Hospitals and emergency services are particularly vulnerable if fuel for generators and fuel-based logistics runs short. The UN’s warning of possible humanitarian collapse signals international recognition that shortages could rapidly translate into public-health and welfare crises.

Politically, the squeeze raises pressure on the Cuban government from two directions: managing domestic discontent over daily hardships and navigating a tighter diplomatic environment. Analysts note that unlike past crises, Havana today has fewer dependable external lifelines able to deliver sizeable energy shipments quickly without risking secondary penalties from the United States. That constrains policy options and increases the cost of maintaining the status quo.

Economically, tourism and foreign exchange receipts are immediate casualties. Air Canada’s cancellations and wider travel disruptions reduce hard-currency inflows at a time when the government has been rationing fuel to preserve core services. Prolonged disruption would likely worsen shortages of food and medicines if import logistics are hampered by lack of fuel and foreign-exchange access.

Geopolitically, the episode tests the BRICS grouping’s practical capacity to shield a member or partner from coercive measures. If China, Russia or Brazil deliver meaningful, sustained energy assistance, the bloc’s influence would be affirmed; if they do not, the event will expose limits to BRICS’ ability to offset Western economic pressure.

Comparison & data

The table summarizes the qualitative differences: the 1990s collapse followed the sudden loss of a single, dominant patron; the 2026 crisis stems from targeted policies and secondary-pressure tactics that hinder multiple potential suppliers. While the scales and durations may differ, both episodes force severe domestic adjustments and test regime resilience.

Reactions & quotes

International organizations and foreign governments have voiced alarm about swift deterioration in public services. The UN flagged the humanitarian consequences and urged attention to civilian needs.

“The Secretary-General is extremely concerned about the humanitarian situation in Cuba, which will worsen, and if not collapse, if its oil needs go unmet.”

Stéphane Dujarric, UN spokesperson (UN/official)

Havana’s leadership framed its stance as resolute while signaling willingness to negotiate without preconditions; the president’s rhetoric has been invoked domestically to rally public resolve.

“Surrender is not an option.”

Miguel Díaz-Canel, President of Cuba (government)

Beijing and Moscow issued public statements criticizing moves that limit Cuba’s access to supplies and pledged political support while logistical assistance remains limited by broader sanctions risks.

“We stand firmly against the inhumane actions that deprive the Cuban people of their right to subsistence and development.”

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson (diplomatic)

Unconfirmed

• Whether Miguel Díaz-Canel will be forced from power in the coming weeks or months remains speculative; some analysts see a higher risk but no definitive timeline.
• The likelihood and timing of large-scale fuel deliveries from BRICS partners is unclear; official pledges have not yet translated into confirmed, sustained shipments.
• The extent to which third countries will defy U.S. tariff threats and resume oil sales to Cuba is unconfirmed and may depend on commercial and legal calculations.

Bottom line

Cuba faces a multidimensional test: immediate humanitarian risks from fuel shortages, shrinking options for external assistance, and mounting political strain at home. The government’s rationing and emergency measures aim to preserve core services, but they cannot substitute for sustained fuel deliveries or restored foreign-exchange flows. The episode will be watched closely as an indicator of how effective targeted economic pressure is when applied against a small, tightly controlled state.

For policymakers and observers, key signals to monitor in coming weeks are confirmed energy shipments, changes in tourism and remittance flows, and the scale of domestic unrest or elite accommodation. How BRICS members respond in concrete material terms — not only rhetoric — will shape the near-term trajectory and test whether external partners can blunt the squeeze or leave Cuba to manage a prolonged contraction alone.

Sources

• CNBC (news report; original article synthesizing statements and reporting)