In the first seven days of early voting for the 2026 midterms across Texas, more ballots have been cast than in the comparable window of recent midterm or presidential cycles, driven chiefly by high participation in the Democratic primary. Statewide totals through the early-voting week show 665,664 Democratic ballots and 593,692 Republican ballots, a combined 1,259,356 votes that exceed totals reported for the same early period in 2024 and 2020. The surge has energized Democratic organizers who see a plausible path toward competitive statewide showings, even as analysts caution that enthusiasm in a primary does not guarantee a November victory. Local upsets and tight primary battles — notably in Tarrant County and a competitive U.S. Senate primary — appear to be key factors in the surge.
Key takeaways
- Through seven days of early voting in 2026 Democrats cast 665,664 ballots statewide; Republicans cast 593,692, for a combined 1,259,356 votes, according to unofficial Texas Secretary of State data.
- That combined seven-day total is higher than the same early-voting window in both 2024 and 2020, despite typically stronger turnout in presidential years.
- Record turnout is concentrated in Democratic strongholds like Harris County and competitive areas such as Tarrant County, where recent local upsets suggest shifting suburban dynamics.
- Tarrant County saw a notable January special-election result: Democrat Taylor Rehmet won SD-9 by 14 points in a district President Trump carried by 17 points in 2024, signaling possible realignment at the local level.
- Political scientists and party officials cite a mix of competitive, well-funded Democratic primaries and voter reaction to national figures as drivers of turnout, while some Republican operatives point to intensified Democratic ad spending and mobilization.
- Republican early-vote totals remain stronger than in recent midterms but lag behind Democrats in this early window; turnout patterns between the primary and general election will determine November outcomes.
Background
Texas has not elected a Democratic candidate to statewide office since 1994, a history that frames party expectations and strategy heading into 2026. Over recent election cycles Republicans have maintained structural advantages in voter registration and statewide vote share, but demographic changes and suburban shifts have narrowed margins in some counties. Primaries concentrate the most motivated voters, often revealing the contours of base enthusiasm months before the general election.
Local contests and unexpected results in off-cycle races have provided fresh evidence that parts of the state may be more competitive than assumed. Tarrant County — historically a swing or low-participation urban county — delivered a January special-election upset that Democrats say signals a capacity to expand turnout. Meanwhile, Harris County remains an anchor of Democratic votes and an essential part of any statewide strategy for the party.
Main event
The immediate story is numerical: 665,664 Democratic ballots and 593,692 Republican ballots were recorded during the first seven days of early voting, per unofficial tallies from the Texas Secretary of State. That combined 1,259,356 figure exceeded early totals from both 2024 and 2020, a notable development given higher historical turnout in presidential years. Party officials and operatives have pointed to competitive primaries and concentrated investment as proximate explanations.
In Tarrant County, Democratic organizers highlighted repeated high daily lines and steady vote volumes as evidence of sustained engagement rather than a short-lived spike. Allison Campolo, chair of the Tarrant County Democratic Party, emphasized the county’s room to grow and framed the numbers as carrying momentum through November. County-level performance in places like Harris and Tarrant will be watched as barometers for whether primary enthusiasm translates to broader November turnout.
On the statewide level, the Democratic U.S. Senate primary — featuring state Rep. James Talarico of Austin and U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett of Dallas — attracted heavy spending and high visibility, factors party leaders say increased turnout. Republican operatives, while acknowledging Democratic energy, argue that structural advantages and the large number of voters who lean Republican statewide still favor GOP outcomes unless Democrats sustain and broaden their coalition.
Analysis & implications
Higher primary turnout for Democrats in the early-voting week alters campaign calculations on both sides. For Democrats, it offers an argument to donors and organizers that invested resources can produce measurable engagement. For Republicans, the pattern raises concerns about base enthusiasm relative to Democrats but does not yet overturn long-standing statewide advantages.
Political scientists caution that primary turnout is an imperfect predictor of general-election performance. Primaries disproportionately attract ideologically motivated and engaged voters; converting that energy into broader appeal among moderates and infrequent voters is the critical next step for any party seeking statewide wins. Analysts also note that early-vote surges can reflect candidate-specific dynamics — competitive primaries, strong field campaigns, and concentrated ad buys — rather than an across-the-board partisan shift.
There are potential downstream effects if Democratic turnout holds or expands. Higher participation in suburbs and urban counties could make traditionally safe Republican margins more contestable in midterm races for U.S. Senate and statewide offices. Conversely, if Republican turnout rebounds in later stages of early voting or the general election — or if swing voters favor Republican nominees — the early Democratic edge may not determine final outcomes.
Comparison & data
| Metric | 2026 (first 7 days) | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Democratic ballots | 665,664 | Unofficial SOS data |
| Republican ballots | 593,692 | Unofficial SOS data |
| Combined total | 1,259,356 | Higher than 2024 and 2020 early-voting windows (SOS) |
The Texas Secretary of State’s early tallies show the 2026 combined early total surpassing comparable seven-day windows in 2024 and 2020; the Tribune’s reporting did not publish the precise seven-day counts for those earlier years in this story. County-level shifts — particularly in Harris and Tarrant — help explain how statewide totals can climb even when other areas remain steady.
Reactions & quotes
Democratic organizers pointed to competitive primaries and energized voters as reasons for the jump in early ballots, saying the numbers reflect investment and local mobilization rather than luck.
Allison Campolo, Tarrant County Democratic Party (paraphrased)
An academic observer warned that while turnout gives Democrats reason for cautious optimism, it does not guarantee a statewide sweep and may reflect a motivated but narrow segment of voters.
Jeffrey Engle, Center for Presidential History, Southern Methodist University (paraphrased)
Republican strategists argued Democratic spending and high-profile contests explain the turnout increase, and reiterated that statewide voter composition still favors GOP candidates unless Democrats expand beyond their base.
Dave Carney, Republican consultant (paraphrased)
Unconfirmed
- Whether the early Democratic turnout will translate into statewide victories in November remains uncertain and depends on November turnout dynamics.
- The relative contributions of President Trump’s unpopularity versus competitive primary campaigns to the turnout surge have not been definitively quantified.
Bottom line
The 2026 early-voting surge in Texas primaries — driven largely by Democratic participation — is a noteworthy development that alters short-term narratives about party momentum in the state. It gives Democrats tangible evidence of mobilization and provides a fundraising and messaging advantage as both parties pivot to November.
Nevertheless, analysts emphasize caution: primary enthusiasm is only one input among many that determine general-election results. The decisive questions for November are whether Democrats can sustain and broaden turnout beyond their base and whether Republicans can reverse early gaps by consolidating swing and infrequent voters.
Sources
- The Texas Tribune — state political reporting (original coverage)
- Texas Secretary of State — official election data (unofficial early tallies cited)
- Southern Methodist University — academic institution (expert commentary)