Lead
An NPR/PBS News/Marist poll of 1,443 adults conducted Nov. 10–13, 2025 finds Democrats leading Republicans 55% to 41% on the congressional ballot, the largest margin on that question since November 2017. The survey also records President Trump’s approval at 39%—his lowest in this term—and shows broad public concern that lowering prices should be the administration’s top priority. Majorities blame congressional Republicans or President Trump for the recent government shutdown, and confidence in key institutions is very low across the electorate.
Key Takeaways
- Democratic advantage: Respondents prefer Democratic congressional candidates by 55% to 41%, a 14-point gap—the biggest Marist-measured advantage for Democrats since Nov. 2017.
- Poll sample and timing: The survey interviewed 1,443 adults from Nov. 10–13, 2025 (NPR/PBS News/Marist poll).
- Presidential approval: President Trump’s overall approval is 39%, the lowest of his second term in this series; independents give him just 24% approval.
- Priority issue: 57% say the president’s top priority should be lowering prices; immigration ranks a distant second at 16%.
- Blame for shutdown: A combined 6-in-10 respondents put responsibility for the government shutdown on congressional Republicans or President Trump.
- Base durability: About 9-in-10 Republicans still approve of the president’s job performance, indicating strong GOP base cohesion despite broader unpopularity.
- Institutional distrust: Large shares report little or no confidence in Congress (80%), the media (75%), the Democratic Party (71%), the Republican Party (65%), and the Supreme Court (62%).
Background
The poll arrives about a year before the 2026 midterm elections and at a moment when Democrats have recently won across several off-year races. Historically, a multi-point lead on the congressional ballot at this stage has signaled potential House gains: Democrats’ midterm surge in 2018 (during Trump’s first term) produced a net gain of 40 House seats.
In contrast, 2022 was marked by a narrow Democratic advantage—variously measured between 0 and 4 points in different surveys—and Democrats nonetheless lost nine House seats. Midterm results are shaped by the president’s popularity, prevailing economic concerns and structural factors such as redistricting, which has reduced the number of truly competitive districts.
Redistricting after the 2020 census—and occasional mid‑decade map changes—has altered the battleground. Both parties have taken steps to influence district lines, which complicates straightforward seat‑gain predictions from national ballot margins alone.
Main Event
The NPR/PBS News/Marist survey found Democrats leading 55% to 41% on the congressional ballot when respondents were asked how they would vote in their district if the election were held today. Independents favored Democrats by roughly a 33‑point margin on that question—an extraordinary swing from the period just before the 2024 election when the parties were essentially tied.
President Trump’s approval rating at 39% stands as the lowest level recorded in this poll series during his second term and is the weakest since the period immediately following the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol. Roughly 48% of respondents strongly disapprove of his performance, another high-water mark for disapproval this term.
The economy—specifically the cost of living—dominates voter priorities. When asked which issue should be the president’s top focus, 57% pointed to lowering prices while only 16% said immigration. Notably, even within the Republican cohort, 40% prioritized lower prices over immigration (34%).
Public confidence in institutions is low across the board. Sixty-one percent say they have little to no confidence in the institution of the presidency; Congress fares worse at 80% little-to-no confidence. The media, both parties and the Supreme Court also score poorly, reflecting pervasive institutional skepticism.
Analysis & Implications
The 14‑point Democratic edge on the congressional ballot is notable because past midterm swings of similar or smaller magnitude have translated into substantive House seat changes—though not always at the same scale. In 2018, leads in this range presaged a 40‑seat Democratic pickup; in 2022, much smaller leads coincided with modest losses. That historical context suggests the current advantage is meaningful but not determinative.
Structural factors—especially redistricting—dampen the predictive power of national ballot margins. Many districts have been drawn to favor one party, reducing the number of toss-up races. Mid‑decade redistricting efforts in some states further complicate the landscape and may limit the number of seats that can realistically flip in 2026.
Trump’s weak standing with independents (24% approval) helps explain the large swing toward Democrats among that group. If independents maintain that gap and if turnout mirrors previous midterm patterns—where motivated coalitions determine outcomes—Democrats could defend or expand their position, particularly in suburban and competitive districts.
However, Republican base cohesion—where roughly 90% of Republicans still back the president—means the GOP retains the capacity to mobilize effectively. The interplay of turnout, candidate quality, local issues and continued economic pressure will be decisive between now and Election Day.
Comparison & Data
| Year | President | Congressional ballot lead | House seat change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Republican (Trump) | 6–12 pts (various polls) | Democrats +40 |
| 2022 | Democrat (Biden) | 0–4 pts | Democrats −9 |
| 2014 | Democrat (Obama) | Republicans +5 pts | Republicans +13 |
These comparisons show that national ballot margins have historically correlated with House outcomes, but the relationship is mediated by map lines, turnout and short‑term political shocks. The current map and mid‑decade adjustments mean even large national leads may produce smaller seat changes than in earlier decades.
Reactions & Quotes
Voters across the country described frustration with both parties and a focus on pocketbook issues. Two respondents captured this mix of economic anxiety and institutional disillusionment:
“I don’t think rent prices or food prices are at the forefront like they should be… it’s our pockets that are getting ripped apart to fund things.”
Nicole Stokes, Dallas (Trump voter, poll respondent)
“I feel lost… The parties don’t speak to me anymore. They have no connection to the real people.”
Wayne Dowdy, Memphis (self‑described “lapsed Democrat”, poll respondent)
Political analysts caution that while the poll highlights vulnerabilities for Republicans, translating a national lead into specific House pickups will depend on district-level factors and campaign dynamics in the next year.
Unconfirmed
- The full impact of mid‑decade redistricting efforts on 2026 competitiveness remains uncertain and will depend on court rulings and state actions yet to be finalized.
- Future turnout patterns—particularly among independents and younger voters—are uncertain and could materially alter how the current national margin translates into House seats.
Bottom Line
The NPR/PBS News/Marist poll shows Democrats with a clear national advantage on the congressional ballot and a president whose approval is weak among independents. Combined with public anxiety about prices, these findings signal political headwinds for Republicans heading into 2026.
But structural factors—especially how district lines are drawn—and the durability of GOP base turnout mean the advantage is not an automatic path to a large Democratic takeover. The next year will be shaped by campaign decisions, contested maps, and whether economic concerns deepen or abate.