Lead: Saturday night in Washington, D.C., No. 3 Duke and No. 1 Michigan met at Capital One Arena in a high-stakes nonconference game with clear NCAA Tournament implications. At halftime Duke led 35-33 after a tight, back-and-forth first half; Cam (Cameron) Boozer had nine points and four assists in 18 minutes while Michigan’s Yaxel Lendeborg paced the Wolverines with 16 points. The game featured early injury and foul concerns — Michigan guard Elliot Cadeau favoring his left arm and 7-foot-3 center Aday Mara in early foul trouble — factors likely to affect the second half. Both teams entered with top national metrics: Michigan No. 1 in defensive efficiency and scoring margin, Duke top-ranked in several seeding metrics and riding a 24-2 record.
Key Takeaways
- Duke led 35-33 at halftime; the Blue Devils extended an early run in the second half to reach a five-point edge (38-33) shortly after the break.
- Cam Boozer had nine points and four assists in 18 first-half minutes and is the leading candidate for National Player of the Year, averaging 22.8 PPG and 10.0 RPG on the season.
- Michigan entered 25-1 and leads the country in scoring margin (21.8); the Wolverines have 21 wins by 10+ points and a Big Ten record seven wins by 40+ points.
- Yaxel Lendeborg scored 16 points by halftime (6-of-9 FG, 2-of-4 3PT) and played 19 of the first 20 minutes, anchoring Michigan’s offense early.
- Aday Mara picked up his third personal foul in the first half and logged six minutes with two points and two rebounds before exiting; his availability and foul trouble are pivotal.
- Michigan guard Elliot Cadeau appeared to favor his left arm and received trainer attention; his status remained uncertain entering the second half.
- Both teams rank among the top in NCAA seeding metrics (NET, KenPom, Wins Above Bubble), making this matchup a potential factor in deciding the No. 1 overall seed in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
Background
Duke (24-2) and Michigan (25-1) came into the neutral-site matchup as two of the nation’s elite teams, both highly rated by the NCAA NET, KenPom, and advanced seeding metrics such as Wins Above Bubble. Michigan leads the country in scoring margin (21.8) and has erased opponents by double digits in the vast majority of games; Duke ranks near the top in margin as well and has shown consistent offensive firepower. The clash at Capital One Arena was widely framed as a late-season measuring stick with direct consequences for the NCAA Tournament bracket and potential tiebreaker scenarios for the No. 1 overall seed.
Cam Boozer has been the primary storyline for Duke all season: the freshman is among national leaders in scoring and rebounding and has produced historically unusual production over an eight-game span. Michigan’s identity rests on length and defensive discipline, anchored by 7-foot-plus rim protectors and two 6-foot-9 forwards who combine size with perimeter mobility. Coaching staffs and NBA scouts alike view the matchup as a trial of Duke’s offensive versatility against Michigan’s interior length and shot-blocking capacity.
Main Event
The first half was a sequence of quick lead changes and small runs. Duke and Michigan exchanged baskets early, and by the first media timeout at the U16 mark the score sat 12-11 in favor of Duke after a couple of corner 3s from Duke guards. Yaxel Lendeborg made his presence felt from the outset, converting his first three field-goal attempts and totaling seven early points.
By the U12 timeout Lendeborg was 5-for-5 from the field and had 12 points, while Boozer was ramping into the game with a mix of scoring and playmaking. Michigan’s offense intermittently sputtered against Duke’s length, but the Wolverines remained within striking distance due in part to Lendeborg’s efficiency and ball movement. The teams entered the half tied in transition opportunities but separated slightly on half-court execution.
Late in the half Duke closed on a 9-0 run that carried into the early second-half sequence, briefly giving the Blue Devils their largest margin of the game. Michigan’s Aday Mara accrued three fouls in six first-half minutes and was sent to the bench; his limited minutes removed a primary deterrent to Boozer’s interior work. Elliot Cadeau, Michigan’s assists leader, appeared to injure his left arm and was tended to by a trainer, walking gingerly to the bench — an in-game development that drew immediate concern from coaches and fans.
Stat lines by halftime: Duke 35, Michigan 33; Boozer 9 pts/4 ast in 18 minutes; Lendeborg 16 pts, 4 rebs in 19 minutes; Mara 2 pts/2 rebs with three fouls. Momentum swung to Duke entering the second half as they carried the late-first-half run and pushed a short burst after the break to open a five-point cushion.
Analysis & Implications
At stake beyond the neutral-site bragging rights is the picture the selection committee will see in mid-March. Michigan’s statistical dominance, as reflected in a +21.8 scoring margin and a top NET/KenPom position, positions it as the favorite for top seeding. Duke’s comparable advanced metrics (No. 2 in similar measures) mean a head-to-head result could be decisive if both finish with otherwise similar resumes. That hypothetical tiebreaker status elevates the importance of every possession in this matchup.
Cameron Boozer’s continued production against Michigan’s length will be a key barometer for his National Player of the Year candidacy. A strong performance against a team ranked No. 1 in defensive efficiency would reinforce his frontrunner status for award voters and draft evaluators. Conversely, Michigan disrupting Boozer with size and help defense would validate their schematic advantage and could reduce Boozer’s individual narrative heading into tournament time.
In-game injuries and foul trouble alter the expected matchup calculus. If Elliot Cadeau’s left-arm issue limits him, Michigan’s ball-handling and pick-and-roll execution could suffer, shifting more responsibility to Lendeborg and Morez Johnson Jr. Similarly, Mara’s foul trouble — and the minutes it forces him to miss — hands Duke a clearer interior path and could force Michigan to adjust rotations and defensive schemes.
Comparison & Data
| Team | Record | Scoring Margin | KenPom Rank | Top Player PPG/RPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan | 25-1 | +21.8 | No. 1 (def. efficiency) | Yaxel Lendeborg (16 by half), Aday Mara blocks: 71 season |
| Duke | 24-2 | High (top-3) | No. 2 (seeding metrics) | Cameron Boozer 22.8 PPG / 10.0 RPG |
The table summarizes the season profiles that shaped pregame expectations. Michigan’s margin and blowout frequency (21 wins by 10+, seven by 40+) reflect consistent dominance, while Duke’s balance and Boozer’s multifaceted box-score contributions have driven their national standing. Advanced metrics (NET, KenPom, Wins Above Bubble) show near-identical seeding support, which is why a head-to-head result on a neutral floor carries extra analytic weight for bracketology.
Reactions & Quotes
“Michigan rates No. 1 in defensive efficiency.”
KenPom (analytics)
“Duke leads the all-time series vs. Michigan, 22-8, and is 6-0 at neutral sites in that matchup.”
CBS Sports (live updates)
“Michigan enters the night 25-1 and tops the country in scoring margin at +21.8.”
NCAA NET / team statistics (official)
Unconfirmed
- Elliot Cadeau’s left-arm issue: severity and expected availability for the remainder of the game had not been officially confirmed at the time of the update.
- Aday Mara’s second-half availability: with three first-half fouls, it was unclear how many minutes he would play in the remainder of the game or whether he would be held out of extended action.
- The degree to which this single head-to-head result will determine the No. 1 overall seed remains speculative until season-ending resumes and the selection committee’s final evaluation.
Bottom Line
This late-season neutral matchup functions as both marquee spectacle and real-time seeding experiment: Michigan’s defensive depth and record-setting blowouts position it as a likely top seed, while Duke’s offensive firepower and Cameron Boozer’s MVP-caliber run make the Blue Devils a legitimate challenger for the No. 1 overall spot. Injuries and foul trouble are the immediate wild cards that could shift the game’s balance in the second half.
For viewers and bracket-watchers, the key items to monitor are Boozer’s effectiveness against Michigan length, the availability and minutes of Elliot Cadeau and Aday Mara, and how each coaching staff adjusts matchups and rotations. The final outcome will likely reverberate through committee narratives and player award conversations in the weeks ahead.
Sources
- CBS Sports live updates — media (game coverage and live box score)
- KenPom — analytics (adjusted offensive/defensive efficiency)
- NCAA NET rankings — official (team NET rankings used for seeding)