David Ellison’s campaign to steer Warner Bros. Discovery to Paramount Skydance rather than Netflix has moved squarely into Brussels, where EU competition officials are preparing pre-notification talks and are expected to open a formal antitrust review once a U.S. deal is sealed. Warner Bros. Discovery this week said it would give Paramount a seven-day window to clarify a “best and final” offer while continuing to recommend shareholders approve its existing $83 billion agreement with Netflix at a March 20 special meeting. Both bidders are already engaging with the EU’s Directorate‑General for Competition as regulators weigh cross-border consumer, production and theatrical implications. Brussels’ scrutiny could shape timing, conditions or remedies even if a full prohibition remains unlikely based on past media merger outcomes.
Key Takeaways
- The EU has begun pre-notification discussions on rival bids for Warner Bros. Discovery ahead of any formal filing; a formal antitrust probe is expected once a U.S. deal is finalized.
- Warner Bros. Discovery agreed to discuss Paramount’s approach for a seven-day window while still backing the $83 billion Netflix transaction and urging a March 20 shareholder vote.
- David Ellison pledged that a Paramount Skydance combination would produce at least 30 theatrical feature films per year, a claim he promoted in paid global newspaper notices.
- Industry groups such as UNIC (representing cinemas in 39 countries) have flagged theatrical windows and local exhibition as key concerns for Europe’s movie ecosystem.
- Analysts say Netflix has a more established lobbying footprint in Europe and familiarity with the AVMS rules, but Paramount may have an edge on defending theatrical and production jobs.
- EU regulators rarely block media deals (e.g., Disney‑21st Century Fox and Comcast‑Sky in 2018; WarnerMedia‑Discovery in 2021), so delay or conditions are considered likelier outcomes than vetoes.
- Observers warn the review will focus on consumer pricing pressure, bargaining leverage with independent producers, and the health of theatrical distribution across EU markets.
Background
Consolidation in global media has intensified antitrust scrutiny as streaming platforms seek premium content and legacy studios look for scale. Regulators in the EU evaluate mergers not only on market concentration but on effects for consumers, independent producers, cultural diversity and jobs linked to local production and theatrical exhibition. The EU’s Audiovisual Media Services (AVMS) rules already require non‑EU streamers to invest in local content, creating an established regulatory dialogue between Brussels and global platforms.
Historical precedent shows the EU often imposes remedies rather than outright blocks for large media combinations, allowing tweaks to protect competition while permitting deals to proceed. Still, the film sector’s theatrical chain — from production through cinemas — is politically and culturally sensitive in Europe, prompting industry groups and national authorities to press for safeguards. That sensitivity frames the current contest between Netflix and Paramount Skydance over Warner Bros. Discovery’s assets.
Main Event
This month Warner Bros. Discovery opened a seven‑day window to engage with Paramount after receiving a hostile approach from the Ellison‑backed bidder, even as it maintains the $83 billion agreement with Netflix. The company instructed shareholders to approve the Netflix transaction at a March 20 special meeting but said it would take Paramount’s clarifications into account during the short window it granted.
David Ellison conducted a high‑profile European lobbying push, meeting with officials in France, Germany and the U.K., and making representations to the EU’s Directorate‑General for Competition. He also placed paid notices in international newspapers promising at least 30 theatrically‑released feature films annually if Paramount Skydance wins the deal, framing that pledge as a public interest defense of cinemas and creative plurality.
Netflix has also been in active contact with Brussels and European stakeholders, leveraging long‑standing relations developed around the AVMS framework and local production commitments. Netflix executives, including co‑CEO Ted Sarandos, met French officials and industry figures in mid‑December and publicly stated intentions to continue theatrical releases and respect traditional release windows for Warner titles.
Analysis & Implications
The EU review will center on several concrete concerns: potential consumer price effects if streaming market power increases; the bargaining leverage a merged entity would hold over European independent producers; and the ramifications for theatrical operators and distributors. Regulators will weigh whether a Netflix‑led merger might enable subscription hikes or tougher licensing terms for local suppliers, while a Paramount outcome could be pitched as less disruptive to theaters.
Netflix’s established EU footprint and prior compliance work on AVMS give it procedural advantages in regulatory conversations, but that familiarity does not immunize it from substantive scrutiny. Brussels can seek enforceable commitments — for example, preserving theatrical windows, making content licensing guarantees to local producers, or ensuring investments in European production — as conditions for approval.
Legal experts note that an EU review is more likely to delay than to block outright, given past cases where the Commission accepted remedies. Timing differences between U.S. and EU clearances could be consequential: a swift U.S. approval followed by protracted EU conditions or concessions could reshape final deal economics or operational plans for either bidder.
Comparison & Data
| Factor | Netflix | Paramount Skydance |
|---|---|---|
| European regulatory familiarity | High — active lobbying on AVMS and local investment | Lower profile in EU lobbying; increasing outreach under Ellison |
| Theatrical track record | Growing theatrical releases but platform‑first identity | Stronger traditional studio/theatrical pedigree |
| Perceived antitrust exposure | Market leader in streaming; higher consumer impact concern | Smaller streaming footprint; easier case on consumer effects |
| Industry relationships in Europe | Extensive local production ties and partnerships | More limited local partnerships, seeking expansion |
The table summarizes publicly reported positions and analyst commentary: Netflix’s strengths lie in local production commitments and an entrenched consumer base, while Paramount can argue continuity for theaters and traditional distribution. Regulators will test these claims against evidence and may ask for binding remedies that translate pledges into enforceable obligations.
Reactions & Quotes
Industry analysts and trade bodies have offered measured responses to both bids, stressing the importance of theatrical windows and local jobs before and during any merger review.
“A Netflix deal could have a clearer impact on consumers because Netflix is a bigger streaming player than Paramount,”
Max von Thun, Open Markets Institute (director of Europe)
Von Thun emphasized the EU’s sensitivity to consumer price effects and market dominance, suggesting European authorities will scrutinize subscription‑level implications as part of their review.
“Our intention is to continue to release Warner movies theatrically, respecting traditional theatrical windows,”
Ted Sarandos, Netflix co‑CEO
Sarandos’ public assurance in France was intended to address cinema operators’ concerns; industry groups like UNIC have nonetheless urged concrete protections for exhibition and local producers.
“Neither of these deals are good for business,”
Martin Moskowicz, German producer
Moskowicz and other European producers warn both bids could carry downsides for the local film industry, even as they acknowledge Netflix’s deeper European integration compared with Paramount.
Unconfirmed
- Whether Paramount Skydance’s pledge to produce 30 theatrical films annually would be contractually binding if regulators or Warner Bros. Discovery accept it; details have not been formalized publicly.
- Claims that Netflix will never merge HBO Max content into its service are not legally binding statements in public filings and could change depending on regulatory or commercial conditions.
- The extent to which political signals from the U.S. or a presidential endorsement would materially influence Brussels’ independent legal assessment remains speculative.
Bottom Line
Brussels has become a decisive forum in the fight over Warner Bros. Discovery because EU competition policy weighs consumer prices, production jobs and theatrical ecosystems alongside market structure. While Netflix brings a stronger European track record on local investment and regulatory dialogue, Paramount can credibly pitch a lighter footprint on streaming‑related consumer impacts and a stronger theatrical defense.
Given the Commission’s history with media transactions, a veto appears unlikely; the more realistic outcomes are delay, negotiated remedies, or enforceable commitments to protect European exhibition and production. Investors, industry stakeholders and national authorities should watch the coming weeks of pre‑notification engagement closely: their content and any concessions could determine which bidder ultimately secures clearance in Europe.
Sources
- Variety (media report summarizing interviews and filings)
- European Commission Directorate‑General for Competition (official regulator information)
- UNIC (industry association representing European cinemas)
- Enders Analysis (independent media analyst firm)