Lead: Scott Feinberg issued a final forecast ahead of the 98th Academy Awards on Sunday, laying out his statistical projections for the ceremony’s top races. He notes that while Jessie Buckley for Hamnet is a strong favorite for Best Actress, the other five marquee categories — Best Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress — remain tightly contested. Feinberg’s Feinberg Forecast favors One Battle After Another for Best Picture and Paul Thomas Anderson for Best Director, though he acknowledges late momentum behind rivals such as Sinners. His projections are framed as probability-based estimates rather than personal endorsements.
Key Takeaways
- Feinberg projects One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) to win Best Picture; that film has amassed an extensive set of precursor awards historically linked to Oscar success.
- Paul Thomas Anderson is projected to win Best Director for One Battle After Another, with Ryan Coogler (Sinners) the closest challenger.
- Jessie Buckley is widely expected to win Best Actress for Hamnet, identified as the clearest lock among the six major awards.
- Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) is Feinberg’s pick for Best Actor, with Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) and Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another) as the nearest competitors.
- Sean Penn is forecast as the frontrunner for Best Supporting Actor for One Battle After Another; Amy Madigan leads Feinberg’s Best Supporting Actress projection for Weapons.
- Feinberg emphasizes methodology: screening, campaign analysis, voter check-ins and historical/statistical trends drive his picks, not personal preference.
- Recent BAFTA controversy and unexpected results at precursor ceremonies have tightened several races, making the final outcome less certain than earlier in the season.
Background
The Oscars season built up around a conventional chain of precursors — guild awards, critics groups and high-profile industry ceremonies — that often shape betting lines and pundit forecasts. For decades, a film’s haul of precursor awards has correlated with Academy success; Feinberg notes that One Battle After Another has collected an unusually broad portfolio of such honors. This year, however, the predictive value of precursors has been tested: controversies at BAFTA and surprise winners at some actor-focused ceremonies introduced uncertainty into multiple races.
Studios and campaign teams remain central stakeholders, coordinating screenings, voter outreach and publicity to influence the Academy’s 10,000-plus voting membership. Two major distributors — Warner Bros. (backing both One Battle After Another and Sinners) and Neon/A24 for other contenders — have invested heavily in awards strategy. The field also reflects a mix of established auteurs (Paul Thomas Anderson, Guillermo del Toro) and contemporary box-office and critical favorites (Ryan Coogler, Timothée Chalamet), creating complex dynamics among branches and voting blocs.
Main Event
In Feinberg’s final list of projected finishes, One Battle After Another tops Best Picture, followed closely by Sinners and Hamnet. He underscores that no film with One Battle’s precursor profile has previously lost, framing the film’s position as statistically robust. Still, Feinberg concedes that Sinners has shown late momentum and that a Coogler victory would signal the breakdown of precursor predictive power.
For Best Director, Feinberg places Paul Thomas Anderson first with Ryan Coogler second, characterizing the director race as “a true toss-up” by season end. He emphasizes that director voting often diverges from Best Picture outcomes when strong personal or stylistic loyalties exist within the directing branch.
The acting races are similarly close. Feinberg projects Michael B. Jordan to win Best Actor for Sinners, with Timothée Chalamet and Leonardo DiCaprio trailing. Jessie Buckley is identified as the solid favorite for Best Actress for Hamnet, a projection repeated across many pundit boards. In supporting categories, Sean Penn is forecast to take Supporting Actor for One Battle After Another and Amy Madigan to win Supporting Actress for Weapons, though both fields contain multiple viable paths to victory.
Analysis & Implications
Feinberg’s approach privileges empirical signals over gut feeling: he continually recalibrates probabilities as new data arrives from precursor results, campaign activity and voter sentiment. If his top projections hold, awards-season wisdom about the weight of precursor wins will be reinforced, bolstering studios’ incentives to chase a broad portfolio of honors. Conversely, a Coogler or Sinners sweep in major categories would indicate that late-season momentum and branch-specific dynamics can overturn statistical favorites.
A win for One Battle After Another and Paul Thomas Anderson would also underscore the Academy’s ongoing preference for auteur-driven, critically lauded fare, possibly shaping greenlighting and awards strategies for prestige studios and streaming platforms. A Sinners victory—especially across director or lead actor—would highlight the power of cultural resonance and campaigning to overcome historical predictors.
Beyond the trophies, the results will have distribution and commercial implications. Streaming platforms and theatrical distributors that secure Oscars often see extended box-office runs, increased licensing leverage and renewed awards-season credibility. For talent, wins translate to heightened market value and bargaining power in future deals.
Comparison & Data
| Category | Feinberg Projected Winner | Nearest Challenger |
|---|---|---|
| Best Picture | One Battle After Another | Sinners |
| Best Director | Paul Thomas Anderson | Ryan Coogler |
| Best Actor | Michael B. Jordan | Timothée Chalamet |
| Best Actress | Jessie Buckley | Kate Hudson |
| Best Supporting Actor | Sean Penn | Stellan Skarsgård |
| Best Supporting Actress | Amy Madigan | Wunmi Mosaku |
Context: The table compresses Feinberg’s top forecasted finish and the closest competitor in each marquee category. These pairings reflect both precursor award tallies and late-season campaign signals. Historically, a film or individual leading multiple precursor academies has a higher conversion rate at the Oscars; Feinberg highlights that One Battle After Another’s portfolio places it in that advantaged cohort.
Reactions & Quotes
“It is my job to make picks based on facts, not feelings,”
Scott Feinberg / The Hollywood Reporter
“All but one of the ‘big six’ remain too close to call,”
Gold Derby panel (industry pundits)
“Jessie Buckley is universally expected to win Best Actress,”
The Hollywood Reporter
These short citations capture central public-facing positions: Feinberg’s stated methodology, a consensus view from a pundit convening, and the widely reported strength of Buckley’s position. Each statement is placed in context by Feinberg’s broader analysis of statistics and campaign dynamics.
Unconfirmed
- Extent of BAFTA controversy’s direct impact on Academy voting remains unclear; causation between BAFTA incidents and Oscar shifts is not independently verified.
- Specific production or telecast elements Feinberg learned from the Academy president and producers were not publicly detailed; those planning notes have not been independently confirmed.
Bottom Line
Scott Feinberg’s final forecast frames the 98th Academy Awards as a statistical exercise: One Battle After Another and Paul Thomas Anderson emerge as favorites based on aggregated precursor data, while Jessie Buckley appears the most secure acting pick. However, the season’s late twists — an energized Sinners campaign and unsettled precursor signals — mean voters could still swing results in unexpected directions.
For readers, the practical takeaway is to treat these projections as probability-weighted snapshots rather than certainties. The ceremony on Sunday will both validate and test longstanding assumptions about how precursor momentum, campaign strategy and branch-specific preferences combine to produce Oscar winners.