Flutter Entertainment on Thursday reported fourth-quarter 2025 results that fell short of Wall Street expectations across multiple measures, driven in part by weaker engagement at FanDuel. The company recorded revenue of $4.74 billion and adjusted EPS of $1.74 for Q4, below LSEG consensus of $4.97 billion and $1.95 respectively. EBITDA came in at $832 million versus a StreetAccount expectation of $893 million, and shares fell nearly 7% in extended trading. Management signaled caution about near-term momentum even as full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $17.75 billion to $19.05 billion showed growth but missed analysts’ $19.34 billion projection.
Key Takeaways
- Flutter reported Q4 2025 revenue of $4.74 billion, below the LSEG consensus of $4.97 billion.
- Adjusted EPS was $1.74 for the quarter, versus the $1.95 expected by LSEG.
- Adjusted EBITDA totaled $832 million, short of the $893 million StreetAccount forecast.
- Q4 revenue still rose 25% year-over-year, reflecting broader expansion despite the miss.
- 2026 revenue guidance of $17.75–$19.05 billion came in below analysts’ $19.34 billion estimate.
- FanDuel activity weakened after bettors lost more often than usual, according to CEO Peter Jackson, dampening usage and betting frequency.
- Management said prediction markets could encourage broader state legalization but reported no evidence these markets are cannibalizing sportsbook revenue.
Background
Flutter Entertainment is one of the world’s largest online betting and gaming companies and owns FanDuel, a leading U.S. sportsbook and iGaming brand. The U.S. market has been a major growth engine over recent years as more states legalize sports wagering and sportsbook operators scale marketing and product offerings. That expansion helped lift Flutter’s revenue by 25% in Q4 year-over-year, illustrating the underlying demand for legalized betting and online gaming.
However, online gambling revenues can be volatile quarter to quarter because bettor behavior, product mix and promotional spending shift quickly. Operators often see user engagement move with short-term winning and losing streaks among customers, which can meaningfully change gross gaming yield and active-user metrics. Regulators, state-level legalization debates and shifting promotional strategies add complexity to forecasting for 2026 and beyond.
Main Event
In its Q4 2025 release, Flutter disclosed revenue of $4.74 billion and adjusted EPS of $1.74, both below consensus. The company’s adjusted EBITDA was $832 million, under the $893 million expectation reported by StreetAccount. Despite the misses, management highlighted a 25% year-over-year revenue increase for the quarter, reflecting geographic expansion and product penetration.
CEO Peter Jackson told CNBC that FanDuel’s Q4 performance was affected by an unusual run of bettor losses that reduced wagering frequency and app engagement. Management said lower bet volume and lower repeat activity were visible causes of the revenue shortfall rather than a sudden structural problem with the product. Still, the stock’s near-term reaction was negative: shares fell nearly 7% in extended trading following the announcement.
Looking to 2026, Flutter provided revenue guidance ranging from $17.75 billion to $19.05 billion, which sits below the street consensus of $19.34 billion. On the earnings call, executives emphasized longer-term growth drivers—such as U.S. market penetration and product diversification—while tempering expectations for the immediate recovery path. Management also discussed prediction markets as a potential catalyst for further state-level legalization of sports betting.
Analysis & Implications
The Q4 miss illustrates how short-term user outcomes can ripple through top-line and margin metrics in consumer-facing gaming businesses. When a significant cohort of bettors experiences losses, operators typically see reduced frequency and deposits in the following weeks, which depresses handle and gross gaming revenue. That behavioral sensitivity makes quarterly forecasting harder and increases the importance of diversified revenue streams and retention mechanics.
From an investor perspective, missing on both top-line and margin metrics in the same quarter raises questions about momentum, particularly when guidance also comes in below consensus. The stock’s roughly 7% slide in after-hours trading reflects immediate repricing of near-term growth assumptions rather than a verdict on the long-term market opportunity. Still, management’s explanation that the miss reflected bettor outcomes rather than product failure is a distinction investors will watch closely in upcoming quarters.
On policy and market structure, Flutter’s view that prediction markets could accelerate legalization carries potential implications for industry growth. If states perceive prediction markets as less-risky or more informative tools for bettors and regulators, that could open new product categories and regulatory dialogues. However, regulatory pathways vary widely by state, and political momentum is not guaranteed.
Comparison & Data
| Metric | Reported (Q4 2025) | Wall Street Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.74 billion | $4.97 billion (LSEG) |
| Adjusted EPS | $1.74 | $1.95 (LSEG) |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $832 million | $893 million (StreetAccount) |
| Revenue YoY change | +25% | — |
The table highlights reported figures versus the primary consensus benchmarks cited by the company and financial-data services. The gap between Flutter’s results and estimates was driven largely by lower-than-expected engagement at FanDuel in the quarter. While year-over-year revenue growth remained strong at 25%, the miss on margin metrics compressed near-term investor confidence and lowered the midpoint of guidance relative to analyst projections.
Reactions & Quotes
Management framed the quarter as an outcome of unusual bettor behavior rather than systemic product deficiencies, while investors reacted to the immediate numbers and guidance. Below are two direct remarks from Flutter’s CEO and the context in which they were made.
“When that happens, gamblers get discouraged, bet less and stop using the app as frequently.”
Peter Jackson, CEO, Flutter Entertainment (on FanDuel engagement)
This comment was given in an interview with CNBC explaining how a run of losing bettors reduced frequency and deposits, affecting Q4 revenue and margins. Management described this pattern as a primary driver of the quarter’s underperformance and said it was visible across FanDuel cohorts.
“It’s fair to say, not everything went our way in the fourth quarter.”
Peter Jackson, CEO, Flutter Entertainment
Jackson used this concise remark on the earnings call to acknowledge the shortfall while also pointing to the company’s broader growth initiatives. The phrasing sought to balance accountability for the quarter with a forward-looking emphasis on product development and regulatory opportunity.
Unconfirmed
- The assertion that the Q4 weakness was predominantly caused by bettors losing more often is management’s assessment and has not been independently verified with granular cohort data.
- Management’s suggestion that prediction markets will materially accelerate state-level legalization is a forecast and depends on political and regulatory outcomes that are not guaranteed.
- The company’s claim of no evidence that prediction markets are cannibalizing the sportsbook business reflects current monitoring but may change as the markets and product offerings evolve.
Bottom Line
Flutter’s Q4 2025 results show a mixed picture: robust year-over-year revenue growth of 25% alongside a clear near-term earnings miss driven by lower FanDuel engagement. The company attributes the shortfall largely to short-term bettor outcomes rather than structural product failures, but investors have re-priced growth expectations as guidance came in below consensus.
For stakeholders, the important signals to watch over the next quarters are: whether FanDuel user frequency and deposit trends normalize; whether management can offset volatility with cross-product growth and margin discipline; and how prediction markets and state-level regulatory changes develop. Those factors will determine if the Q4 miss is a temporary setback or a signal of deeper challenges in monetizing growth.
Sources
- CNBC (media report with interview and earnings summary)
- LSEG (financial-data provider cited for consensus figures)
- StreetAccount (financial-data/newslet service cited for EBITDA consensus)
- Flutter Entertainment Investor Relations (official company filings and statements)