U.S. stock futures ticked modestly higher on Wednesday as traders in New York waited for Nvidia’s quarterly report due after the market close. Dow futures rose about 54 points, roughly 0.1%, while S&P 500 futures were up 0.1% and Nasdaq 100 futures added about 0.2%. The moves followed a strong regular session on Tuesday when the S&P 500 gained nearly 0.8%, the Nasdaq Composite jumped about 1% and the Dow climbed roughly 370 points. Market attention centered on Nvidia’s results alongside earnings from Salesforce and Snowflake, and on recent headlines around AI deployments and trade policy.
- Dow futures were up 54 points (about 0.1%); S&P 500 futures rose 0.1%; Nasdaq 100 futures gained ~0.2% ahead of Wednesday’s open.
- In Tuesday’s regular session the S&P 500 climbed ~0.8%, the Nasdaq Composite ~1.0% and the Dow added ~370 points (~0.8%).
- Advanced Micro Devices jumped nearly 9% after Meta Platforms announced a multiyear deal with AMD, lifting broader tech sentiment.
- The iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF (IGV) rose 1.9% on Tuesday but remains down more than 25% year-to-date.
- Investors await after-close earnings from Nvidia, Salesforce and Snowflake; Nvidia’s print and guidance are seen as pivotal for tech sentiment.
- PayPal rallied about 13% over two days on a Bloomberg report that Stripe may consider a bid; Stripe declined to comment to reporters.
- Geopolitical and policy developments — including U.S.-Iran tensions and a newly applied 10% global tariff on imports — added to market risk considerations.
Background
Markets have been in flux as investors reprice the winners and losers of the AI cycle. After months of enthusiasm for AI-capable firms, some parts of the market — particularly software vendors — saw sharp selloffs amid concerns that new AI tools could displace incumbents and that hyperscale cloud providers would need to spend heavily on AI infrastructure. This reassessment has made upcoming quarterly reports especially consequential: earnings beats and constructive guidance can calm nerves, while misses or cautious outlooks may deepen the correction.
Large-cap chipmakers such as Nvidia and AMD sit at the center of that narrative because their products power many AI systems. Nvidia’s results have become a focal point for traders recalibrating valuations and expectations about enterprise AI spending. At the same time, headline risks — from trade-policy shifts to geopolitical friction — are layering additional uncertainty onto corporate forecasts and investor positioning ahead of earnings.
Main Event
Treasury- and equity-market moves on Tuesday reflected a mix of corporate news and macro headlines. The notable driver in equities was AMD’s near-9% spike after Meta disclosed a multiyear agreement with the chipmaker, a development that boosted semiconductor sentiment broadly. Software and cybersecurity stocks also saw relief on the day after Anthropic released connectors and plugins for Claude Cowork, allowing enterprises to link the AI tool with applications such as Google Drive and easing investor worries about immediate disruption to incumbent software vendors.
Despite the relief rally in software on Tuesday, many names remain well below earlier highs: the IGV sector ETF remains down more than 25% year-to-date even after Tuesday’s bounce. Traders said some prior selling had been indiscriminate, leaving room for targeted rebounds in stocks with renewed positive catalysts. Meanwhile, futures trading on Wednesday showed only modest gains as participants awaited Nvidia’s quarterly numbers and guidance, which market strategists say could set the tone for near-term risk appetite.
After-hours and near-term movers added to the noise: Workday slid nearly 10% in after-hours trading after offering slightly lower-than-expected first-quarter subscription revenue guidance of $2.34 billion versus a $2.35 billion consensus. Lucid reported a wider-than-expected fourth-quarter loss of $3.62 per share and cut U.S. headcount, pressuring the EV maker’s stock. CoStar Group trimmed first-quarter guidance, and Cava surprised with better-than-expected results and an 8% jump in its shares.
Analysis & Implications
Nvidia’s report carries disproportionate market significance because the company is viewed as a proxy for enterprise AI adoption and the health of the chip supply chain. A beats-and-upgraded-guidance scenario would likely reinforce a constructive narrative for AI hardware and select software vendors that benefit directly from increased data-center activity. Conversely, a revenue miss or tepid guidance could force a broader re-rating of richly valued AI beneficiaries and heighten volatility across tech names.
Beyond Nvidia, investors are parsing how hyperscalers will finance their AI ambitions. High capital expenditures at cloud providers could compress near-term margins for software partners and hardware suppliers, or delay enterprise buying decisions. That uncertainty has amplified sensitivity to quarterly guidance, and has made market reaction more binary: good guidance may trigger sizable rallies; caution may prompt steep selloffs.
Macro and geopolitical factors complicate the picture. The administration’s tariff moves and renewed tensions in the Middle East can affect supply chains, input costs and global demand. Even when earnings beat, such external pressures can mute follow-through rallies if investors fear second-order impacts on corporate margins or international sales. The interplay of company-level results and top-line macro risks suggests continued headline-driven trading in the near term.
| Item | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Dow futures | +54 pts (~0.1%) | Ahead of Nvidia earnings |
| S&P 500 futures | +0.1% | Awaiting multiple tech reports |
| Nasdaq 100 futures | +0.2% | Tech sensitivity to AI updates |
| Tuesday regular session | S&P +0.8%, Nasdaq +1%, Dow +370 pts | Relief rally after software selloff |
| AMD | ~+9% | After Meta multiyear deal |
| IGV ETF | +1.9% (still >25% YTD down) | Partial software rebound |
| PayPal | +13% (two days) | Reported takeover interest (Bloomberg) |
| Workday | After-hours -~10% | Q1 subscription revenue guide $2.34B vs $2.35B est. |
The table above distills the day’s notable moves and their immediate drivers. While some gains were tied to single-company news, market breadth remained mixed and many tech names stayed below earlier valuation peaks. Traders told reporters that short-term positioning will hinge on earnings detail — particularly guidance on AI-related demand and spending plans.
Reactions & Quotes
Market strategists described recent selling in software as broad and sometimes indiscriminate, leaving room for selective reversals when positive company news appears. Analysts on CNBC noted that while Nvidia remains numerically important to market direction, some investors are less singularly focused on it than in prior quarters due to other mounting headlines.
“I think that it’s been indiscriminate to a point where… there’s room here for a little bit of a correction upward in some of these names.”
Liz Thomas, Head of Investment Strategy, SoFi (as quoted on CNBC)
Other strategists emphasized that Nvidia still carries outsized influence: strong results and upbeat guidance would likely sustain tech momentum, whereas a disappointment could amplify the recent rotation out of software and into more cyclical or AI-infrastructure plays.
“Numerically, the importance of Nvidia still remains; they likely need to beat and offer positive guidance to keep market sentiment intact.”
Liz Thomas, Head of Investment Strategy, SoFi (as quoted on CNBC)
Unconfirmed
- Reports that Stripe is preparing a bid for all or part of PayPal are based on unnamed sources and remain unconfirmed by either company.
- The scale and timing of hyperscalers’ near-term AI capital spending remain estimates; precise budgets are often not disclosed and can change quickly.
- Any market impact attributed to U.S.-Iran tensions is observational; direct causal links between geopolitical headlines and specific corporate guidance require further verification.
Bottom Line
Markets opened the midweek session cautiously positive as traders awaited Nvidia’s earnings and guidance, alongside results from Salesforce and Snowflake. Tuesday’s gains were driven by company-specific news — notably AMD’s deal with Meta and Anthropic’s product updates — rather than a generalized risk-on impulse, leaving breadth uneven.
Expect volatility around after-close releases: a clear beat and constructive outlook from Nvidia would likely lift AI hardware names and reduce near-term stress in some software stocks, while a miss or cautious commentary could prompt renewed selling. Outside of earnings, keep watching tariff policy shifts and geopolitical headlines; either can quickly alter the backdrop for multinational companies and supply-chain-sensitive sectors.