Lead
Germany’s coalition government has approved a plan to expand the Bundeswehr, requiring all 18-year-olds to complete suitability questionnaires from next year and, from July 2027, medical screening for 18-year-old men. Lawmakers are expected to vote on the package by the end of 2025. The move aims to raise troop strength from roughly 182,000 by 20,000 in the short term and to between 255,000 and 260,000 within a decade, backed by about 200,000 reservists. Officials frame the change as a response to rising security concerns and the need to strengthen conventional deterrence.
Key Takeaways
- The Bundeswehr currently fields about 182,000 active personnel; the plan targets +20,000 within a year and 255,000–260,000 within 10 years.
- From 2025 all 18-year-olds will be sent a questionnaire assessing willingness and suitability; starting July 2027, 18-year-old men must undergo medical fitness screening.
- Parliamentary approval is planned by the end of 2025; if recruitment targets fall short, compulsory enlistment could be considered.
- The reform was negotiated by the CDU/CSU and SPD coalition, which earlier agreed to reintroduce service initially on a voluntary basis.
- Rheinmetall’s CEO Armin Papperger said reaching the government’s capacity goals could be feasible within five years and highlighted rising defence-industry demand.
- Public opinion is mixed: a Forsa survey cited in reporting showed modest overall support for compulsory service but 63% opposition among 18–29-year-olds.
- Defence Minister Boris Pistorius emphasised deterrence and reassured citizens there was “no reason for fear” while urging preparedness.
Background
Conscription in Germany was suspended in 2011 amid a prolonged reduction in defence spending after the Cold War. Over recent years, Germany has been under renewed pressure—diplomatic and political—to rebuild conventional military capabilities, prompted by Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine and shifting NATO expectations. The current coalition, formed earlier this year between the conservative CDU/CSU and the Social Democrats (SPD), negotiated a return to some form of military service as part of a broader security platform.
Germany’s historical reticence to mobilise large standing forces stems from post-Second World War norms and legislative restraints; any move to expand the Bundeswehr confronts those sensitivities. Defence-industry actors such as Rheinmetall have benefited from European rearmament trends, supplying vehicles, ammunition and electronics while urging faster capability growth. At the same time, political factions on the left and youth movements remain sceptical of mandatory service on ethical and personal-freedom grounds.
Main Event
The cabinet-level agreement requires next year that all 18-year-olds, men and women, receive a formal questionnaire assessing interest and suitability for military service; the government has specified the questionnaire will be mandatory for men and voluntary for women. From July 2027 an additional medical fitness examination will be required for 18-year-old men. Those administrative measures are intended to create a searchable pool of potential recruits should conscription become necessary in the future.
Government officials say the immediate objective is to add about 20,000 personnel within the next 12 months and to scale to 255,000–260,000 active troops over the coming decade, supplemented by an estimated 200,000 reservists. The policy leaves a parliamentary safeguard: if voluntary flow falls short of targets, legislators could vote on a form of compulsory enlistment. A full vote on the package is anticipated by the end of 2025.
Defence Minister Boris Pistorius framed the measures as strengthening deterrence rather than preparing for imminent conflict, saying improved training, equipment and personnel reduce the risk of involvement in war. Rheinmetall chief Armin Papperger told reporters he thought the expansion goals were realistic, projecting the defence sector could scale production and capabilities in coming years. Military leadership has also warned allies: Gen Carsten Breuer told NATO interlocutors there is a need to prepare for the possibility of a Russian attack within about four years—an assessment that has shaped urgency around the reforms.
Analysis & Implications
The plan shifts Germany’s posture toward a more robust conventional force, reflecting a wider European trend of rearmament since 2022. Raising active personnel by roughly 40–45% over a decade would require sustained recruiting success, budgetary commitments, and expanded training and equipment pipelines. The government will need to fund additional barracks, trainers, and logistics capacities while accelerating procurement—areas historically constrained by post-Cold War austerity and procurement backlogs.
Politically, the proposal navigates competing pressures: the CDU/CSU and SPD have had to balance calls for stronger defence with domestic reluctance to normalise large-scale military mobilisation. Opposition within the political left and broad youth scepticism—especially among 18–29-year-olds—could complicate recruitment and public consent. If voluntary measures underperform, a parliamentary decision to invoke compulsory service would likely trigger significant social debate and legal scrutiny.
Economically, the plan strengthens demand for domestic defence suppliers, with Rheinmetall explicitly pointing to business growth in vehicles, ammunition and electronics. That surge could stimulate industrial investment and jobs but also raises questions about long-term procurement transparency, export controls and strategic dependencies—especially given concerns about supplying partners such as Ukraine while expanding national stocks.
Comparison & Data
| Metric | Current / Target |
|---|---|
| Active Bundeswehr personnel | ~182,000 → +20,000 (1 year), 255,000–260,000 (10 years) |
| Estimated reservists | ~200,000 (supplement) |
| Questionnaire rollout | From next year to all 18-year-olds (mandatory for men) |
| Medical screening | From July 2027 for 18-year-old men |
| Parliamentary vote | Expected by end of 2025 |
The table condenses the government’s stated targets and timelines. Delivering the numerical goals depends on conversion rates from questionnaire responses to enlistments, medical-disqualification rates, attrition, and the pace of training throughput. Historical precedent shows that rapid numerical growth in armed forces typically requires parallel investments in infrastructure and instructor recruitment to avoid capability bottlenecks.
Reactions & Quotes
Government and industry responses emphasise readiness and capability growth; opposition and youth groups stress civil liberties and the trauma of militarisation. Below are representative short quotes with context.
“No reason for fear — the more capable our forces, the less likely we become a party to conflict.”
Boris Pistorius, Federal Defence Minister (official statement)
Pistorius used the statement to reassure the public that expanded personnel and equipment aim to strengthen deterrence. He framed the measures as defensive and preventative rather than aggressive, part of a broader narrative to calm public concern while pressing ahead with capability upgrades.
“I feel good, I feel safe.”
Armin Papperger, CEO, Rheinmetall (industry comment)
Papperger, whose firm has seen increased demand for military equipment, said he believed Germany could meet the government’s targets and underscored the need for domestic production in vehicles, ammunition and electronics. He also declined to elaborate on unconfirmed reports about threats to his safety.
“I don’t want to go to war because I don’t want to die… I also don’t want to shoot people.”
Jimi, 17, student (protest participant)
Young critics voiced personal and ethical objections at protests outside the Bundestag, reflecting the broader scepticism among younger cohorts. Conversely, recruits such as a 21-year-old who joined this year cited deterrence and civic contribution as motivations for enlistment.
Unconfirmed
- A US report last year suggested Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger was the target of a Russian assassination plot; that claim has not been independently confirmed.
- Precise conversion rates from questionnaires to active enlistments and the medical-disqualification rate for 18-year-olds remain unreported and thus uncertain.
- Whether parliament will choose compulsory enlistment if voluntary targets are missed is a political contingency, not a decided fact.
Bottom Line
This government decision marks a significant reorientation of Germany’s manpower strategy for defence, moving from a downsized post-Cold War force toward a planned and sizable increase in active and reserve personnel. The immediate administrative steps—questionnaires and future medical checks—are designed to build a pool of potential recruits without imposing blanket conscription today, but the policy explicitly preserves the option of compulsion if voluntary measures fail.
Success will depend on political consensus, public acceptance—particularly among young people—and sustained investment in training, infrastructure and procurement. The coming parliamentary process through 2025 will test those dimensions: if lawmakers endorse the plan and funding follows, Germany could materially alter NATO’s conventional posture in Europe over the next decade.
Sources
- BBC News — international news reporting and parliamentary timeline (media)