On Tuesday, gold surged to a new all-time high, briefly touching $3,508.50 per ounce, as a softer U.S. dollar and growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September powered safe-haven demand across global markets.
Key Takeaways
- Spot gold set a record at $3,508.50/oz and was last up 0.6% at $3,496 as of .
- Gold is up about 33% year to date after multiple record highs in 2025.
- U.S. December gold futures gained 1.4% to $3,565.50.
- Futures imply roughly 90% odds of a 25 bp Fed cut on Sept. 17, per CME FedWatch.
- The U.S. dollar hovered near a one-month low, easing prices for non-U.S. buyers.
- Silver firmed 0.3% to $40.79/oz, near its highest since Sept. 2011.
- Platinum rose 1.2% to $1,416.86; palladium slipped 0.6% to $1,130.45.
- Analysts cite central bank buying, geopolitical risk, and de-dollarization themes.
Verified Facts
Spot bullion vaulted to a record $3,508.50 before steadying around $3,496 by late Asian hours on Tuesday. The rally extends a powerful 2025 run that has lifted prices roughly 33% year to date.
U.S. gold futures for December delivery advanced to $3,565.50, outpacing spot as traders positioned for policy easing.
Interest-rate markets put the probability of a 25-basis-point cut at the Sept. 17 Federal Reserve meeting at about 90%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Lower policy rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.
The U.S. dollar index lingered near a more-than-one-month low, a tailwind that makes dollar-priced metals cheaper for buyers using other currencies.
Other precious metals moved mixed: silver traded at $40.79 after touching its strongest level since September 2011 in the prior session; platinum climbed to $1,416.86; palladium eased to $1,130.45.
| Metal | Price (per oz) | Change | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (spot) | $3,496.00 | +0.6% | Record $3,508.50 earlier; as of 04:57 GMT |
| Gold (U.S. futures, Dec) | $3,565.50 | +1.4% | Rate-cut positioning |
| Silver (spot) | $40.79 | +0.3% | Near highest since Sept. 2011 |
| Platinum (spot) | $1,416.86 | +1.2% | Broad precious gains |
| Palladium (spot) | $1,130.45 | -0.6% | Divergent performance |
Context & Impact
Gold’s momentum builds on a 27% rise in 2024 and a psychological break above $3,000/oz in March 2025. Persistent safe-haven flows tied to geopolitical and trade uncertainties, ongoing central bank purchases, and a trend toward reduced dollar exposure have reinforced the upswing, analysts note.
Market debate over the Fed’s independence has also entered the narrative. U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly criticized the central bank and Chair Jerome Powell for not cutting rates sooner. On Monday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Fed is and should remain independent, while arguing it had made “a lot of mistakes,” and defended the president’s authority to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook amid mortgage-fraud allegations.
Forward-looking catalysts include Friday’s U.S. non-farm payrolls report, which could influence whether the Fed opts for a standard 25 bp move or signals a larger step later in the year. A softer labor print would likely harden expectations for easier policy, a traditionally supportive backdrop for bullion.
Price strategists caution that volatility may rise around key data and Fed communications. If rate cuts unfold as implied and geopolitical risks remain elevated, gold’s trajectory could extend through year-end; conversely, a stronger dollar and stickier inflation could cap gains.
Official Statements
Cooling growth and rising odds of U.S. rate cuts are lifting precious metals.
Kyle Rodda, Capital.com
The Fed should be independent, but it has made mistakes; the president has authority regarding personnel decisions, including Gov. Lisa Cook, amid allegations.
Scott Bessent, U.S. Treasury Secretary
If the Fed delivers multiple cuts and no Russia–Ukraine peace deal emerges, gold could test $3,600 or higher by year-end.
Tim Waterer, KCM Trade
Unconfirmed
- The ultimate size and timing of Fed rate cuts beyond September remain uncertain and contingent on incoming data.
- The impact of political pressure on Federal Reserve decision-making is unclear; the Fed maintains it is independent.
- Mortgage-fraud allegations referenced in relation to Fed Governor Lisa Cook are unresolved in court and unproven in this report.
Bottom Line
Gold’s break above $3,500 reflects a potent mix of rate-cut bets, dollar softness, and resilient safe-haven demand. With a pivotal U.S. jobs report due and the September Fed meeting approaching, the near-term path will hinge on macro data—yet the strategic case supported by central bank buying and geopolitical risk remains intact.