— Gold jumped to an all-time high above $3,500 per ounce on Tuesday as traders priced in a likely U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut this month, lifting demand for the non-yielding safe-haven asset and pushing year-to-date gains to roughly 32%.
Key Takeaways
- Spot gold touched a record $3,508.50/oz before easing to $3,476.48 at 09:47 GMT.
- U.S. December gold futures rose 0.9% to $3,546.80.
- Markets assign about a 90% probability to a 25 bp Fed cut on September 17 (CME FedWatch).
- SPDR Gold Trust holdings rose 1.01% to 977.68 tons on Friday, the highest since August 2022.
- Gold gained 27% in 2024 and first broke $3,000/oz in March 2025.
- Reuters’ July poll sees gold averaging $3,220 in 2025 (up from January’s $2,756).
- Silver slipped 0.7% to $40.39 after hitting its highest since September 2011 on Monday.
- Platinum fell 0.9% to $1,386.40; palladium dropped 1.5% to $1,120.54.
Verified Facts
Spot prices set a fresh record at $3,508.50/oz early in the session, then steadied around $3,476.48 by mid-morning in London. The advance extends a powerful 2025 rally driven by safe-haven flows, central bank purchases, and a softer U.S. dollar.
In futures, Comex December gold added 0.9% to $3,546.80. Traders are now heavily positioned for a quarter-point cut at the Fed’s September 17 meeting, with the CME FedWatch tool showing roughly 90% odds. Lower policy rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding bullion.
Holdings in SPDR Gold Trust, the largest gold-backed ETF, climbed 1.01% to 977.68 tons on Friday, the highest since August 2022, signaling renewed investor participation alongside central bank buying.
The metal rose 27% in 2024 and breached $3,000/oz for the first time in March 2025 amid uncertainty around U.S. trade policy. A Reuters poll conducted in July projected an average gold price of $3,220 for 2025, up notably from the $2,756/oz view in January.
In the wider precious complex, silver eased 0.7% to $40.39 after touching a 14-year high on Monday, while platinum and palladium slipped 0.9% and 1.5%, respectively.
Context & Impact
Gold’s surge reflects a combination of policy expectations and structural demand. Central banks have continued to diversify reserves, supporting prices through steady buying. Meanwhile, investors have sought cover from geopolitical and trade frictions, reinforcing bullion’s safe-haven appeal.
Rate dynamics remain the immediate catalyst. A softer labor print in Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls could cement a September cut and keep real yields pressured—historically positive for gold. Conversely, an upside surprise in jobs growth could temper expectations on the pace of easing and introduce short-term volatility.
Policy rhetoric also matters. President Donald Trump has criticized the Fed for keeping rates elevated, while tariffs and trade tensions have amplified uncertainty. Together, these forces have underpinned demand for assets with low correlation to equities, real estate, and credit.
For investors, elevated ETF inflows and central bank demand suggest dips may be met with buying. However, with prices at records, position sizing and risk controls remain critical should policy or data surprises trigger swift mean reversion.
Market snapshot
| Asset | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Gold spot | $3,476.48/oz | Record high $3,508.50 earlier |
| Gold futures (Dec) | $3,546.80 | +0.9% |
| Silver spot | $40.39/oz | -0.7% |
| Platinum spot | $1,386.40/oz | -0.9% |
| Palladium spot | $1,120.54/oz | -1.5% |
Official Statements
Gold’s path depends on how closely the Fed’s cutting trajectory matches market expectations.
Han Tan, Chief Market Analyst, Nemo.money
Indicators point to a sustained uptrend; it’s a ‘buy-the-dip’ market, though not in a straight line.
Hugo Pascal, Precious Metals Trader, InProved
Unconfirmed
- Whether the Fed will consider a cut larger than 25 bp in September.
- The scale and pace of future central bank gold purchases through late 2025.
- The ultimate impact of any new or expanded trade tariffs on global growth and gold demand.
Bottom Line
Gold’s break above $3,500 underscores how strongly policy expectations and defensive demand are intersecting. With a key U.S. jobs report due Friday and the Fed meeting on September 17, the next catalysts are squarely data- and policy-driven.
Absent a decisive shift in the growth or inflation outlook, dips may remain shallow as central bank buying and ETF inflows reinforce the bull case—though record-level volatility should be expected.