Lead
On 11 January 2026, the military-backed general election entered its second phase while parts of eastern Myanmar remained effectively ungovernable. Hpapun, once a regional hub with an airport, banks and government offices, stood empty ahead of polling, with homes and shops burned or reclaimed by jungle. Voting planned for the town is confined to a tactical command post about 10 km down the road, reachable only past mine warnings and heavily deployed troops. The displacement of millions and low urban turnout have left the vote’s legitimacy in question.
Key Takeaways
- Hpapun, a formerly busy regional town in eastern Myanmar, was visited by reporters weeks before 11 January 2026 and found deserted; buildings were destroyed or overgrown.
- Some voting is to be held at a Tactical Command post roughly 10 km (6 miles) from Hpapun; access is constrained by landmines and checkpoints.
- About 800 government soldiers in the area have been described as under siege since 2024, limiting civilian movement and safety.
- At least 3.5 million eligible voters across Myanmar are reported unable to vote because they have been displaced by ongoing armed conflict.
- Initial returns from the first phase (28 December 2025) saw the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) capture 89 of 102 lower-seat contests reported so far.
- Local election officials told reporters turnout in some urban areas may have been as low as 35 percent in the first phase.
Background
Myanmar’s nationwide vote has been carried out in multiple phases, with the first round on 28 December 2025, a second round in mid-January and a third scheduled for 25 January 2026. The contest is taking place amid an intensifying civil conflict between junta forces and a constellation of armed resistance groups, including local People’s Defence Forces. The unrest has driven millions from their homes and fractured normal civic life in many rural districts.
Hpapun, in eastern Kayin State, used to function as a regional service center with state offices, banks and commercial outlets and even a local airstrip, reflecting its former role for surrounding valleys. Over years of fighting the town’s infrastructure has been degraded: buildings burned, shops abandoned and the perimeter marked with mine warnings. These conditions have reshaped how, whether and where people can attempt to take part in any national vote.
Main Event
When reporting teams visited Hpapun in the weeks before 11 January 2026, not a single resident was found in the town proper; houses and businesses were empty and many structures showed fire or blast damage. A sign on the police station still asks “Can we help you?” in English, while a nearby marker warns of landmines. These markers underscore the practical hazards that prevent safe movement in and out of the settlement.
Officials arranged limited voting inside a Tactical Command post located about 10 km (6 miles) down the road from Hpapun. Reaching that site requires traversing territory with booby traps and minefields and passing through armed checkpoints; reporters noted roughly 800 government troops posted in the area, a force local fighters say has been besieged since 2024. For many displaced villagers the journey to vote would be unsafe or impossible.
Residents who fled nearby villages say they have received little or no information about the electoral timetable. One displaced woman living on the Sittang riverbank said she had not been informed about voting logistics and did not plan to cast a ballot. In urban Yangon, by contrast, security felt lighter and life more normal, but officials said turnout in some city precincts was low, reflecting apathy or active boycott calls.
Political campaigning and the candidate field in many constituencies have been dominated by parties aligned with the military, leaving critics to call the entire process a managed outcome. The USDP’s strong showing in the first phase — 89 of 102 lower seats reported — indicates how the balance of contested seats may tilt, though official final tallies are still pending.
Analysis & Implications
The conduct of voting in towns like Hpapun highlights a central legitimacy problem for the nationwide ballot: large swathes of the population either cannot safely participate or face a choice made under duress. When displacement, checkpoints and landmines effectively bar citizens from polling stations, the statistical outcome of an election says less about public consent and more about which areas were accessible to administrators.
Low turnout in urban centers compounds the issue. If turnout figures such as the reported 35 percent in some city areas are confirmed, the new legislature’s mandate would rest on a small and unrepresentative slice of the electorate. That risks prolonging contestation inside Myanmar and undermining international acceptance of the results, with potential for sustained sanctions or diplomatic isolation depending on how external governments interpret the process.
The military-backed parties’ early dominance in reported seats may reflect a range of factors: restricted competition, administrative control over resources, and the displacement of opposition constituencies. Even so, the longer-term political consequences hinge on whether armed resistance groups and large segments of the population accept the outcome; if they do not, instability and parallel governance structures are likely to persist or expand.
Comparison & Data
| Metric | Reported figure |
|---|---|
| Displaced eligible voters | at least 3.5 million |
| Distance of polling site from Hpapun | ~10 km (6 miles) |
| Government soldiers in area | ~800 (under siege since 2024) |
| First-phase reported USDP lower-seat wins | 89 of 102 |
| Estimated urban turnout (some areas) | ~35% |
The table summarizes numbers cited in reporting around the second phase. These figures illustrate how displacement and force deployments intersect with the mechanics of voting: large numbers of displaced voters reduce the potential electorate, while concentrated troop presences and insecure corridors limit where polling can safely occur.
Reactions & Quotes
Local resistance commanders and displaced civilians offered starkly different framings of the election’s meaning. Rebels characterize the process as an instrument of control rather than a path to legitimacy, while many displaced people said they had no practical way to participate.
The vote is a staged measure to keep power in place rather than a genuine reflection of public will.
Tin Oo, People’s Defence Force commander
Humanitarian and civic observers warn that excluding millions from voting will have long-term governance consequences. Some election officials in cities acknowledged low participation in the first phase, attributing it to fear, confusion and boycott calls.
We did not see many voters in several Yangon districts; people told us they either received no information or chose not to come.
Local election official (quoted to reporters)
A displaced woman living beside the Sittang river described daily survival as the priority, not participating in a vote she said she had not been informed about.
I’m focused on feeding my child and finding shelter; nobody told us how to vote here.
Aye Thu Zar, displaced resident from Pazun Myaung
Unconfirmed
- Nationwide official final turnout percentages for the full multi-phase vote have not been released and remain unconfirmed.
- Precise casualty figures for incidents around Hpapun and nearby villages in the weeks prior to polling were not independently verified.
- Allegations of organised ballot tampering in specific constituencies have been reported anecdotally but lack corroborating documentation available to reporters at the time of publication.
Bottom Line
Voting in Hpapun and similarly contested areas exposes the limits of holding a nationwide election amid active armed conflict. When polling sites are restricted, populations are displaced, and access is hazardous, the resulting legislature will reflect those distortions as much as voter preferences. Observers and foreign governments are likely to weigh these distortions when deciding whether to recognise or challenge the outcome.
For residents uprooted by violence, immediate concerns remain survival, shelter and security — practical priorities that eclipse electoral participation. Absent meaningful reductions in conflict and credible, inclusive electoral processes, Myanmar faces continued fragmentation between centres of formal authority and communities that either cannot or will not take part in state institutions.