Lead
The U.S. Census Bureau estimates released in March 2026 show net international immigration fell in every metropolitan area in the year ending July 1, 2025, compared with the prior year. Large urban and border counties — including Los Angeles County, Laredo, El Centro, Denver and Chicago — experienced the sharpest declines. Los Angeles County lost nearly 54,000 residents, and roughly 75 percent of U.S. counties saw overall population growth slow or turn negative. The data point to a broad retreat in international arrivals with implications for local labor markets and public services.
Key Takeaways
- Net international immigration declined in every U.S. metropolitan and micropolitan area in the year to July 1, 2025, versus the previous year, according to Census estimates.
- About 75 percent of U.S. counties experienced slower population growth or net population losses when accounting for births, deaths, domestic migration and international flows.
- Los Angeles County, the nation’s most populous county, recorded a population decline of nearly 54,000 people in the period reported.
- Net immigration into the Denver metro area fell by almost three-quarters, while Chicago’s net international inflow was reduced by nearly two-thirds.
- Border metros such as Laredo saw international immigration virtually stall; El Centro lost more people to other countries than it gained over the same year.
- Large urban counties and several border counties that saw surges in arrivals in prior years were among the most affected by the downturn.
Background
The U.S. experienced a notable rise in international migration in the years following the COVID-19 pandemic, as restrictions eased and global mobility resumed. Many large metro areas and border communities absorbed much of that increase, which affected housing demand, labor supply and public services. Over the same period federal policy, enforcement practices and changing conditions in origin countries influenced flows, producing regional variation in arrivals.
Recent years also saw intensified attention from local officials and service providers in areas with sharp inflows; employers in sectors such as construction, hospitality and agriculture relied on immigrant labor. Demographic factors — including an aging native population and lower fertility rates — have grown more visible in debates about long-term workforce sustainability. The latest Census estimates arrive against that backdrop and reframe local planning needs.
Main Event
On March 26, 2026, the Census Bureau published annual estimates that measure net international migration for metropolitan and micropolitan statistical areas through July 1, 2025. Those estimates compare the most recent 12-month period with the prior 12 months and show declines across every metro area. The dataset includes both inflows from abroad and departures to other countries, yielding a net figure for each area.
Los Angeles County registered the largest single-county numeric loss reported in the release, with a decline of nearly 54,000 people when all components are combined. Border metros such as Laredo reported a near halt in international arrivals, while El Centro showed a net outflow to other countries that exceeded its gains. In suburban and inland metros like Denver and Chicago, the net international immigration rate dropped sharply — almost three-quarters in Denver and nearly two-thirds in Chicago by the Census comparison.
The pattern was geographically widespread: not only border and gateway cities but also many large urban counties recorded markedly lower net international inflows. In roughly three-quarters of counties nationwide, overall population growth slowed or turned negative, contrasting with the earlier rebound period when many of these same places experienced rapid gains. The Census release included maps and tabulations that highlight the scale and distribution of the downturn.
Analysis & Implications
Economically, a broad decline in net international immigration can tighten labor markets for sectors that depend disproportionately on newcomers, such as hospitality, meatpacking, agriculture and certain construction trades. Employers in affected metros may face recruitment challenges, upward pressure on wages for some jobs, or slower expansion plans. Municipal budgets that anticipated continued growth in property and sales tax receipts could see slower revenue trajectories.
From a service and planning standpoint, reduced population inflows alter projections for school enrollment, health care demand and affordable housing needs. Some areas that expanded infrastructure or social services to accommodate recent arrivals may need to recalibrate capacity and funding. Conversely, places experiencing net losses confront stresses tied to shrinking tax bases and potential underutilization of built capacity.
Politically, the data will be used by competing actors to underscore either the success of tighter border enforcement or the economic risks of reduced inflows. International migration is only one component of population change; births, deaths and domestic migration also shape local demographics. If the immigration slowdown persists, it could accelerate workforce aging in regions with low birth rates, raising long-term questions about productivity and fiscal support for elders.
Comparison & Data
| Area | Reported Change (yr to Jul 1, 2025) | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles County | Population decline ≈ 54,000 | Largest single-county numeric loss reported |
| Denver metro | Net immigration fell by almost 75% | Sharp drop in rate of international arrivals |
| Chicago metro | Net immigration reduced by nearly 66% | Two-thirds reduction in net inflow |
| El Centro metro | Net international outflow | Lost more people to other countries than it gained |
| Laredo metro | International immigration near standstill | Border gateway with a marked slowdown |
The table summarizes headline comparisons cited in the Census release. Percent changes for metros refer to declines in net international immigration rates versus the prior 12-month period; numeric changes refer to net gains or losses where the Census provides counts. These figures do not capture short-term daily border crossings that may be recorded differently in administrative data.
Reactions & Quotes
Local officials, federal statisticians and demographers reacted to the release by noting both the headline decline and the need for deeper analysis to understand causes. Officials in several affected counties emphasized uncertainty about how long the pattern will last and the practical consequences for services and labor markets.
We are seeing a clear, measurable fall in net international migration across the board; the patterns differ by place, but the direction is consistent.
U.S. Census Bureau (official release)
Community leaders in border metros stressed the immediate local impacts while urging federal support and clearer policy signals. Some municipal planners said the shift requires revisiting budgets, emergency services and workforce strategies.
Border towns have absorbed a lot of change over the past few years; a sudden stop in arrivals leaves both administrative challenges and questions about local economies.
Local government official (border metro)
Independent demographers cautioned against reading short-term drops as permanent trends: economic conditions abroad, U.S. policy choices and enforcement changes can all reverse or amplify the pattern. Analysts called for detailed cohort-level data to understand age, skill composition and duration of stay for recent migrants.
Short-term fluctuations are common, but the breadth of this decline across every metro area is notable and warrants further study.
Independent demographer
Unconfirmed
- The relative contribution of federal enforcement changes versus economic push-pull factors abroad to the decline is not yet established by the public data.
- It remains unconfirmed whether temporary administrative backlogs or reporting differences account for part of the drop in recorded net inflows.
- Long-term forecasts about whether the slowdown will reverse or persist depend on economic and policy developments that are not settled.
Bottom Line
The Census estimates for the year to July 1, 2025, show a geographically broad reduction in net international immigration that touches every U.S. metro area and three-quarters of counties. That breadth makes the release more than a localized anomaly: it signals shifting dynamics that will affect labor markets, municipal planning and political debates about migration policy.
Policymakers and local leaders should treat the data as a prompt for more granular analysis: identifying which industries and age cohorts have been most affected, tracking whether reduced inflows translate into sustained population decline, and adjusting budgets and workforce strategies accordingly. Observers should watch subsequent monthly and annual datasets for confirmation or reversal of the trend.