Lead
Indiana visits Illinois in Champaign on Sunday, Feb. 15, 2026, with tipoff scheduled for 1 p.m. ET on CBS. The market lists Illinois as a 10.5-point favorite with a moneyline near -650 and the total at 151.5 points. This preview projects the Illini to cover the spread and highlights the matchup edges that support that view. Key injuries and recent form factor heavily into the pick.
Key Takeaways
- Game time: 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Feb. 15, televised on CBS in Champaign, IL.
- Market lines: Illinois favored by 10.5 points; moneyline roughly -650 for Illinois and +475 for Indiana; total 151.5.
- Illinois enters 20-5 overall and has won 11 of its first 14 Big Ten matchups this season.
- Indiana’s leading scorer Lamar Wilkerson averages 21.2 points per game (12th nationally); the Hoosiers average just over 81 points per game as a team.
- KenPom/analytics: Illinois ranks first nationally in offensive efficiency; Illinois is 29th in defensive efficiency, while Indiana sits near the top-35 offensively but only barely inside the top-50 on defense.
- Matchup imbalance: Illinois’ size (multiple 7-foot-plus options) conflicts with Indiana’s small starting lineup, creating interior defense advantages for the Illini.
- Betting angle: Expect Illinois to push tempo and control rebounds; projection favors Illinois -10.5 and backing Keaton Wagler to make multiple 3s.
Background
Darian DeVries is in his first season as Indiana’s head coach after Mike Woodson stepped away following four seasons. DeVries arrives with a résumé that includes six seasons at Drake—where he reached three NCAA Tournaments—and a short stint at West Virginia, and he was hired to re-establish Indiana as an NCAA Tournament team. The Hoosiers improved after a slow start but remain a bubble team; their late-season résumé hinges on a few high-profile wins and steadier defensive play.
Illinois, under Brad Underwood in his ninth season, is positioned for a sixth consecutive NCAA Tournament bid. The Illini are 20-5 and sat among the nation’s most efficient offenses; they ran a 13-game winning streak earlier this season even after losing senior point guard Kylan Boswell to a broken hand. Freshman Keaton Wagler has stepped into the scoring void—his 46-point game in a road upset of Purdue is a recent signature performance—and Illinois combines perimeter firepower with one of the largest frontcourts in the conference.
Main Event
The game should open with Illinois trying to push an up-tempo attack, attacking downhill and seeking touches inside to their 7-foot and near-7-foot corps. Expect the Illini to attack early on the glass and use size advantages to limit Indiana’s second-chance opportunities. Illinois’ offensive balance will force Indiana’s guards into difficult rotations, particularly with Wagler and other perimeter threats spacing the floor.
Indiana will likely try to run through Lamar Wilkerson, who averages 21.2 points and has carried the offense at times this season, including a 40-point outing against Oregon. Tucker DeVries provides secondary creation (roughly 14 points, five rebounds and three assists per game) but Indiana’s lack of a traditional scorer in the frontcourt means the Hoosiers typically play small and rely on guard play to create offense.
Matchups to monitor: Illinois’ bigs—listed contributors at 7-foot-plus and 6-foot-9—should contest shots at the rim and alter Indiana’s interior plans. If Indiana cannot generate consistent spacing or protect the glass, turnovers and second-chance points will magnify the line. Conversely, if Indiana forces Illinois into a sloppy night from deep, the Hoosiers could keep this within reach.
Analysis & Implications
From a tournament-seeding perspective, this game has asymmetric value. A home win helps Illinois solidify a top-10 to top-15 seed projection; a loss would be another blemish that could trim its margin for error in March. Illinois’ two recent losses to Michigan State and Wisconsin add urgency—Underwood’s team should view Sunday as a chance to reassert its offensive identity.
For Indiana, a competitive road performance would be a résumé booster for an at-large case. The Hoosiers’ defensive profile is the bigger concern: they rank only marginally inside the top 50 in defensive efficiency and lack size, which is a structural disadvantage against Illinois’ interior and interior-out combinations. Improving defensive rebounding and limiting easy rim attempts are prerequisite goals.
Betting implications center on tempo and mismatch exploitation. Illinois’ ability to push pace and to score efficiently inside suggests the total could be reached if Indiana keeps up offensively; however, the more likely line outcome is a comfortable Illinois cover owing to the disparity in frontcourt size and depth. Market movement may tighten if injury updates or late money shifts surface, so shopping lines is advised.
Comparison & Data
| Metric | Indiana | Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Overall record | — (bubble team) | 20-5 |
| Leading scorer (PPG) | Lamar Wilkerson — 21.2 | Keaton Wagler — ~19 |
| Team scoring | ~81 points per game | Under 70 allowed; top offense (KenPom) |
| KenPom offense rank | Top-35 | 1 (offensive efficiency) |
| KenPom defense rank | Just inside top-50 | 29 |
| Market spread / ML | +10.5 / +475 | -10.5 / -650 |
The table highlights core contrasts: Illinois’ elite offensive efficiency and frontcourt size versus Indiana’s guard-driven scoring and smaller lineup. Those differences underpin the forecast and betting lean.
Reactions & Quotes
“We need to clean up our defense and control the paint—those are our current priorities heading into a tough stretch.”
Brad Underwood, Illinois (paraphrased)
Underwood’s team has emphasized rebounding and interior defense since the Boswell injury; those priorities are visible in practice reports and recent game plans.
“Lamar is carrying much of our offense; if he gets going, we can hang with anyone—but we must shore up defensive assignments on the boards.”
Darian DeVries, Indiana (paraphrased)
DeVries has leaned on his veteran guard play while searching for consistent frontcourt production; the coach’s remarks reflect Indiana’s plan to outscore opponents when stops are hard to come by.
Unconfirmed
- Kylan Boswell’s exact return timeline following his broken hand has not been publicly finalized and could affect Illinois’ rotation in coming weeks.
- Minute distributions for Illinois’ secondary scorers and any short-term changes to Indiana’s frontcourt rotation remain subject to coach decisions closer to tipoff.
Bottom Line
Illinois’ combination of size, top-ranked offensive efficiency and recent home-court advantage makes them the logical favorite in Champaign. The Illini should be able to exploit Indiana’s lack of interior size and force contested possessions; for those reasons the primary pick is Illinois -10.5. Expect Keaton Wagler to be a decisive factor—his recent scoring burst and ability to create from the perimeter present matchup problems for the Hoosiers.
From a wagering perspective, shop for the best spread and consider a correlated prop (Wagler 3-pointers) alongside the game spread. Monitor any late injury or lineup news; absent disruptive updates, the projection favors Illinois covering and controlling the tempo throughout the afternoon.