Private-sector indicators compiled through early November 2025 show U.S. hiring has slowed since the summer, even as headline unemployment has not yet surged. With the federal government shutdown delaying the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly payroll reports for a second straight release, economists are relying on payroll firms, job boards and state filings to read the labor market. Those sources present a mixed picture: fewer openings and subdued hiring in many sectors, but not yet the broad wave of layoffs that would push unemployment sharply higher. Policymakers and forecasters say the situation is fragile and could worsen quickly if hiring weakens further.
Key Takeaways
- Two consecutive monthly BLS jobs reports were canceled due to the federal government shutdown, producing the longest official data blackout since August; economists have lacked an official labor read since that month.
- Private datasets are inconsistent: ADP reported a private-sector drop in September then a modest rebound in October, while Revelio Labs’ series (including government jobs) shows the opposite trend.
- Companies announced roughly 150,000 job cuts in October, nearly triple year-earlier levels, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas’ October tally of layoff announcements.
- Weekly state unemployment-insurance claims have remained relatively stable; a Chicago Fed estimate recorded only a small uptick in October’s unemployment rate.
- Labor supply appears to be constraining the market: a Dallas Fed estimate placed the ‘‘break-even’’ monthly hiring pace around 30,000 jobs, down from about 150,000 a year earlier.
- Hiring has become concentrated in a few sectors—notably health care—raising downside risk if those areas slow; manufacturing and leisure & hospitality showed signs of pullback in recent private surveys.
- Federal furloughs from the shutdown—about 30,000 federal employees filed for unemployment benefits since the shutdown began—may be reducing household spending in affected regions.
Background
The scheduled Bureau of Labor Statistics payroll releases for October and November were interrupted by a federal government shutdown, leaving the official monthly jobs snapshot unavailable for two straight cycles. Economists and policymakers typically rely on the BLS for headline measures—total employment, the unemployment rate and payroll gains—but in its absence they have turned to several private and state-level series. Those alternative sources include payroll-processor ADP, job-board metrics from LinkedIn and Indeed, corporate layoff tallies from Challenger, Gray & Christmas, and internal estimates produced by banks and research firms.
Private series differ in coverage and methodology: some sample payrolls or vacancy postings; others model employer surveys and administrative flows. The divergence in methods helps explain why ADP and Revelio Labs—two large private trackers—reported contrasting month-to-month results for September and October. Historically, official measures have quickly captured inflection points in unemployment; that speed is precisely what economists fear is missing now.
Main Event
Since late summer, multiple major employers including Amazon, UPS and IBM disclosed plans to shed thousands of positions, contributing to a jump in announced cuts in October. Challenger, Gray & Christmas counted about 150,000 announced job reductions that month, nearly triple the October 2024 figure. Yet announcements have not uniformly translated into immediate payroll reductions across other indicators: state initial unemployment claims have not shown a sustained rise commensurate with the scale of public layoff notices.
Private payroll measures painted a mixed month-to-month portrait. ADP’s report indicated private payroll losses in September followed by a small gain in October, while Revelio Labs’ series—covering both government and private jobs—moved in the opposite direction. Job openings tracked by Indeed and other boards have trended downward since midyear, implying weaker demand for labor overall even if layoffs have not yet spiked in official filings.
The Federal Reserve cut its policy rate by a quarter point at its meeting this month, citing concerns about growth and the labor market. Chair Jerome H. Powell said officials expect to detect material shifts in the economy even without full BLS detail, though some economists warn that visible signals such as rising jobless claims can lag the onset of downturns.
Analysis & Implications
The current picture is best described as a “low-hire, low-fire” equilibrium: employers are adding few positions and are not broadly cutting payrolls, leaving unemployment low but labor-market churn muted. That pattern reduces bargaining power for job seekers and curbs wage pressure, holding down wage-driven inflation but also limiting income growth for workers seeking raises or new roles. For early-career job hunters, the reduced flow of openings makes entry and upward mobility more difficult.
On the supply side, slower growth in the labor force is an important factor. Demographics—an aging population—and tightened immigration have reduced the inflow of available workers, lowering the monthly number of jobs needed to keep the unemployment rate steady (the ‘‘break-even’’ pace). Estimates of that break-even pace vary widely; a Dallas Fed estimate placed it near 30,000 per month, far below last year’s rough 150,000 benchmark, but uncertainty around that figure is substantial.
Concentration of hiring raises systemic risk. With a disproportionate share of recent job growth in health care and a few other pockets, an industry-specific slowdown could spill into broader weakness. Manufacturing job losses and a pullback in leisure and hospitality—sectors that had driven post-pandemic gains—are early warning signs that the recent resilience may be brittle rather than broad-based.
Comparison & Data
| Indicator | Recent Signal | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Private payrolls (Sep–Oct) | Mixed month-to-month (ADP vs. Revelio) | ADP, Revelio Labs |
| Layoff announcements (Oct 2025) | ~150,000 announced cuts | Challenger, Gray & Christmas |
| State UI initial claims | Relatively stable | State unemployment agencies |
| Job openings | Declining since summer | Indeed, LinkedIn |
The table summarizes the core indicators available while official BLS reports are suspended. In aggregate, demand-side signals point to cooling—fewer openings and softer hiring—while supply-side shifts complicate interpretation. Analysts emphasize that no single private series fully substitutes for the comprehensive detail in a BLS jobs report.
Reactions & Quotes
The context behind each comment helps interpret what private data imply for policy and households.
“Employers have been in a holding pattern with regards to hiring; workers have been in a holding pattern in terms of switching jobs.”
Sarah House, Wells Fargo (economist)
House’s remark captures the low-churn dynamic: firms hesitate to hire aggressively while employees are less likely to switch roles during uncertainty.
“I think we’re standing on the edge of a cliff and we’re slowly starting to slip down.”
Lisa Simon, Revelio Labs (chief economist)
Simon warned that concentrated hiring and rising layoff announcements could presage a sharper deterioration if the trend accelerates.
“If there were significant or material change in the economy one way or another, I think we’d pick that up.”
Jerome H. Powell, Federal Reserve (chair)
Powell acknowledged the monitoring challenges posed by missing BLS releases but expressed confidence the Fed would detect large shifts through other indicators.
Unconfirmed
- That the October wave of announced layoffs will immediately translate into a large, sustained rise in official unemployment—this linkage remains uncertain because many announcements do not produce immediate or widespread separations.
- Precise magnitude of labor-supply shifts attributable to specific immigration policies—estimates vary and real-time measurement is imprecise.
- The net effect of federal furloughs on macro spending is not fully known; while some affected workers filed claims, the broader consumption impact depends on savings, credit access and the shutdown’s duration.
Bottom Line
Private-sector indicators for late 2025 point to a cooling U.S. labor market: openings and hiring have weakened, layoffs and corporate announcements have increased, yet headline measures such as weekly unemployment claims and available private payroll estimates do not, so far, show a sharp surge in joblessness. The absence of official BLS reports increases uncertainty and forces reliance on a mosaic of imperfect signals.
For policymakers, the critical question is whether these early signs deepen into a broad-based rise in unemployment. Key watch points in the coming weeks are sustained increases in state initial claims, further deterioration in sectors that currently concentrate hiring, and whether announced cuts translate into realized separations. Until official payroll data resume, analysts will continue triangulating private sources while flagging the substantial uncertainty around real-time estimates.
Sources
- The New York Times (media report summarizing private and official indicators)
- Challenger, Gray & Christmas (labor-market consultancy; layoff announcements)
- ADP (private payroll processor; employment reports)
- Revelio Labs (labor-market analytics firm; alternative employment series)
- Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (regional Fed estimates of unemployment)
- Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (research on labor-force dynamics and break-even hiring)
- Glassdoor Economic Research (employee sentiment and hiring indicators)