On Sept. 5, 2025, after President Trump dismissed Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner Erika McEntarfer and tapped E.J. Antoni as her likely replacement, economists said the monthly jobs figures remain trustworthy for now, though standard caveats and upcoming revisions apply.
Key Takeaways
- The BLS leadership change followed a weak monthly jobs report; E.J. Antoni has been named to lead the agency but is not yet Senate-confirmed.
- William J. Wiatrowski is running the agency as acting commissioner and has served in that role before.
- Monthly payrolls and the unemployment rate are produced by automated, decentralized systems and are not easily altered by a single official.
- The August employment estimate is preliminary and will be revised twice as late reports arrive.
- The BLS cut May–June payrolls by a combined 258,000 jobs in a recent revision.
- Analysts expect the upcoming benchmark reconciliation to show surveys overstated employment for a second consecutive year.
- Concerns remain about falling survey response rates and budget cuts, but aggregate measures show no clear loss of reliability to date.
Verified Facts
On Aug. 29, following a monthly report that showed softer job gains than expected, President Trump fired Erika McEntarfer, the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and designated E.J. Antoni, a conservative economist, to run the department that compiles the jobs data. As of Sept. 5, Mr. Antoni had not been confirmed by the Senate; the bureau is being led by Deputy Commissioner William J. Wiatrowski in an acting capacity.
Economists and former BLS officials say the mechanics of the payrolls report limit the ability of any one political appointee to alter the core numbers. Most payroll data come directly from employers through an electronic reporting system with strict access controls, and the commissioner does not receive the finalized figures before publication, according to officials familiar with the process.
The monthly employment figure released each first Friday is a preliminary estimate and is formally revised twice as additional company reports come in. The agency recently revised its May and June job totals downward by a combined 258,000, illustrating that early estimates can change materially as new information is processed.
Context & Impact
Analysts note two separate reliability concerns: short-term political risk to the agency’s reputation and longer-term methodological challenges. In the short run, an unconfirmed president’s appointee cannot easily rewrite reported numbers; in the longer run, repeated attacks or budget cuts could erode public trust and the bureau’s capacity.
Separately, the BLS conducts an annual “benchmark” reconciliation that compares monthly survey-based estimates with administrative payroll data from state unemployment insurance systems. Most forecasters expect next week’s preliminary benchmark report to show the surveys overstated employment for the second year running, which would lead to downward adjustments in the monthly series.
Despite these issues, economists say aggregate indicators — total payrolls and the unemployment rate — remain among the best real-time measures of labor-market health. Revisions to those measures have, on average, become smaller over recent decades, even as survey response patterns have shifted.
Potential Effects
- Financial markets may react to headline payrolls and revisions rather than leadership changes at the BLS.
- Persistent downward revisions could alter near-term forecasts for growth and monetary policy.
- Public confidence in official statistics could decline if perceived political pressure continues.
Official Statements
“Wiatrowski is a B.L.S. lifer committed to the agency’s mission and would not permit improper interference in the statistics,”
Erica Groshen, former BLS commissioner
“There are safeguards in place; the numbers are not controlled by a single person in a room,”
Aaron Sojourner, economist, W.E. Upjohn Institute
Unconfirmed
- Whether an eventual Senate-confirmed commissioner could, over time, change presentation or methods in ways that weaken perceived independence (possible, but would attract scrutiny).
- How sustained political attacks might influence the agency’s funding or staff morale beyond the short term.
Bottom Line
For now, most labor economists consider the headline payroll and unemployment statistics reliable measures of labor-market trends despite the high-profile personnel change at the BLS. Still, readers should treat the initial August estimate as provisional and watch the coming revisions and the benchmark reconciliation for a fuller picture.