Lead
US and Russian officials have quietly drafted a 28‑point proposal that, according to multiple media reports on 19 November 2025, would require Kyiv to surrender territory and sharply reduce its armed forces. The draft — reported to have been developed by former Trump envoy Steve Witkoff and Kremlin adviser Kirill Dmitriev — was disclosed as Russian drone and missile strikes killed at least 25 people in Ternopil. The proposal reportedly limits the size and armaments of Ukraine’s military and curtails some US assistance, a package Kyiv would likely regard as tantamount to capitulation.
Key Takeaways
- The draft plan reportedly contains 28 points and would require Ukraine to cede land in the east and halve the size of its military, measures Kyiv has previously called non‑starters.
- At least 25 people, including three children, were killed and 73 wounded in a Russian strike on an apartment block in Ternopil on 19 November 2025, Ukrainian interior ministry figures show.
- The proposal is said to have been drafted by Steve Witkoff (Trump envoy) and Kirill Dmitriev (Kremlin adviser) and reportedly draws inspiration from a prior Gaza‑related peace framework.
- Reports indicate limits on categories of weapons and reduced US military assistance would be part of the package, potentially curbing Ukraine’s defensive capabilities.
- The White House had not publicly confirmed formal endorsement at the time of reporting; Moscow denied receiving a draft of this level through diplomatic channels.
- The developments occurred amid renewed Russian strikes on western Ukraine and ongoing battlefield pressure, including recent advances near Pokrovsk.
Background
Efforts to find a negotiated end to the war in Ukraine have fluctuated since Russia’s full‑scale invasion in 2022. Washington and other Western capitals have repeatedly framed diplomacy as preferable to continued fighting, but past initiatives collapsed when proposals appeared to grant Russia major territorial or political gains. Kyiv’s leadership, led by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, has consistently rejected arrangements that would permanently cede sovereign control or significantly weaken Ukrainian military capacity.
According to media accounts, an informal backchannel involving private and former officials has been used to test ideas that do not always pass through formal diplomatic routes. The newly reported 28‑point draft is said to have emerged from such an unofficial track. Western officials have in public emphasised that any sustainable settlement would require painful concessions by both sides, but the precise balance of concessions has been contested.
Main Event
On 19 November 2025 Russia launched a heavy attack on western Ukraine, striking multi‑storey residential buildings in Ternopil and energy facilities near Ivano‑Frankivsk and Lviv. Ukrainian authorities reported 25 dead, including three children, and 73 injured; eyewitnesses described thick smoke, blocked corridors and residents trapped inside burning apartments. Video circulating on social media showed the moment a missile struck a block; local emergency services responded to firefighting and rescue operations.
Media organisations reported the existence of a 28‑point ceasefire/settlement draft that would force Kyiv to relinquish territory it controls in the east and dramatically curtail its armed forces. The package is attributed in reporting to Steve Witkoff, described as an envoy connected to former president Donald Trump, and to Kirill Dmitriev, a Kremlin adviser. Neither the White House nor the Kremlin confirmed formal adoption of the draft.
President Zelenskyy was in Ankara on 19 November meeting President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to press for intensified international pressure on Russia and additional air‑defence supplies. Kyiv has sought to both strengthen military defences ahead of winter and maintain political unity at home, while also pursuing diplomatic channels to prevent further escalation that would erode Ukrainian sovereignty.
Analysis & Implications
If the reported terms — territory concessions plus halving Ukraine’s armed forces — were imposed, the balance of military deterrence in the region would change significantly. A reduced Ukrainian force and restricted access to certain categories of weapons would limit Kyiv’s capacity to counter further Russian advances, raising questions about long‑term stability along the front and the security of NATO’s eastern flank. Western states would face renewed pressure to reconcile defence commitments with diplomatic objectives.
Politically, acceptance of such terms would likely be untenable for the Ukrainian government and politically explosive domestically. President Zelenskyy’s repeated public rejection of major territorial concessions suggests Kyiv would view the plan as unacceptable. Conversely, failure to secure sufficient international support to repel Russian pressure risks territorial losses and deepening political crises, particularly as corruption scandals and governance strains unfold at home.
For Moscow, a negotiated settlement that locks in territorial gains and curbs Ukraine’s military could be portrayed as a strategic victory without full occupation. For Washington and European capitals, endorsing terms that effectively satisfy most Kremlin demands would clash with stated objectives of upholding sovereignty and deterring future aggression, complicating transatlantic unity on sanctions and assistance.
Comparison & Data
| Item | Reported figure |
|---|---|
| Fatalities in Ternopil strike (19 Nov 2025) | 25 (including 3 children) |
| Injured in Ternopil strike | 73 (including 15 children) |
| Reported draft points | 28 |
| Reported military cut | ~50% reduction |
The table summarises figures cited in contemporary reporting. The casualty numbers come from Ukraine’s interior ministry; the 28‑point count and the proposed halving of forces are described in press reports attributed to unnamed sources and to accounts of the draft authors. Historical comparisons show prior proposals that required major territorial concessions have failed to secure Ukrainian agreement.
Reactions & Quotes
“A durable peace will require both sides to agree to difficult but necessary concessions.”
Marco Rubio, U.S. Secretary of State (social media)
Rubio’s comment framed diplomacy as contingent on mutual concessions; it was posted as reports of the draft circulated. The remark does not confirm endorsement of any specific text.
“Every brazen attack against ordinary life shows that the pressure on Russia is insufficient.”
Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine (social media)
Zelenskyy used his meeting in Ankara to call for stronger allied support, linking battlefield attacks to the urgency of increased air‑defence and sanctions enforcement.
“So far there are no innovations on this that can be reported to you.”
Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesperson (press comment)
The Kremlin publicly denied substantive progress on a new peace text and said it had not received a draft of such level through formal channels.
Unconfirmed
- Whether the Trump administration or the current US government formally authorised or endorsed the draft remains unconfirmed by official statements.
- Full text of the 28‑point draft has not been publicly released; specific wording and enforcement mechanisms are reported secondhand.
- Attribution of the plan’s origin and inspiration (links to a Gaza‑era framework) is reported by some outlets but has not been independently validated.
Bottom Line
The reported draft raises the stakes of any negotiation by proposing terms Kyiv would likely view as capitulation. Accepting large territorial concessions and a halved military would reshape the strategic balance in Eastern Europe and could undermine Western commitments to Ukraine’s defence.
In the near term, expect intensified diplomatic activity, public denials from Moscow and careful hedging from Western capitals. Key items to watch are whether a full text is published, whether formal US endorsement emerges, and how Kyiv’s leadership and Ukrainian public opinion respond to any concrete offers.
Sources
- The Guardian — reporting on draft plan and Ternopil strike (media)
- Reuters — world news reporting (media)
- Financial Times — international affairs coverage (media)
- Axios — initial reporting cited on the draft (media)
- U.S. Embassy in Ukraine — official statements and visit notices (official)
- Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine — casualty and emergency reports (official)