Myanmar junta holds second phase of election widely decried as a ‘sham exercise’

Lead

Voters queued in parts of Myanmar on Sunday for the second phase of a military-managed election held amid a nationwide insurgency and widespread condemnation. The balloting follows a first stage on 28 December in which the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) won 90 of 102 contested lower-house seats and turnout registered at 52.13 percent. The poll comes after the 2021 coup that ousted the civilian government led by Aung San Suu Kyi and has coincided with a civil war that has displaced millions. International bodies and rights groups say the vote lacks credible opposition and cannot be considered free or fair.

Key takeaways

• The second phase of voting took place while conflict continues across Myanmar, with a final round scheduled for 25 January.
• In phase one on 28 December, the USDP captured 90 of 102 lower-house seats contested; overall contest covers 265 of 330 townships.
• Reported voter turnout in phase one was 52.13 percent, markedly below levels recorded in 2020 and 2015 national elections.
• At least 16,600 civilians have died since the 2021 coup, according to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED).
• The UN estimates about 3.6 million people have been displaced by the conflict, contributing to a major humanitarian crisis.
• The National League for Democracy (NLD) and dozens of other anti-junta parties were dissolved or barred from registering for these polls.
• Observers including the UN, Western governments and human-rights organisations describe the election as neither free nor credible in the absence of meaningful opposition.

Background

Myanmar has been mired in violence since the military removed the elected government in February 2021 and detained State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi. The coup triggered nationwide protests that evolved into an armed contest between the junta and a range of resistance groups, including ethnic and newly formed People’s Defense Forces. Those hostilities have expanded across much of the country, weakening the junta’s control over many townships and complicating the electoral rollout.

Before the coup the National League for Democracy swept the 2020 election; its leaders and many members have since been imprisoned, disenfranchised or forced into exile. The junta enacted legal and administrative measures that critics say have narrowed the political playing field, and election authorities removed or dissolved parties that might challenge military-backed candidates. These steps have left the USDP and other pro-military actors as the principal organised participants in the contest.

Main event

Sunday’s voting marked the second of three scheduled stages, covering constituencies where the junta asserts it can operate despite active fighting in many areas. Local officials said polling stations opened and that turnout varied sharply by location, with queues visible in government-held urban centres and scant participation where insecurity is acute. The military has mobilised state resources to run the process and promote participation, while also restricting media and assembly in ways critics say discourage dissenting voices.

State media quoted junta leader Min Aung Hlaing as praising the election and urging authorities to increase turnout, calling the earlier round a success and an expression of public desire to engage. International observers and rights organisations counter that the environment lacks essential freedoms for a genuine contest, pointing to party dissolutions, candidate disqualifications and restrictions on campaigning.

The first phase results released after 28 December showed the USDP winning the bulk of seats up for grabs, leaving the junta well-placed to secure parliamentary majorities if those trends hold. The final voting date of 25 January will conclude balloting in many remaining townships, but large swathes of the country remain under contest by armed groups that have refused to participate in the polls.

Analysis & implications

The military’s stated goal is to legitimise its rule through an electoral process it controls. Winning across a majority of contested constituencies would enable the junta to claim institutional authority, but domestic legitimacy is highly contested because major opposition forces have been excluded. Any parliament formed under these conditions would face difficulty in claiming broad public consent, complicating governance and reconstruction efforts.

International recognition is another obstacle. Analysts warn that even a decisive electoral result for pro-military parties is unlikely to translate into prompt or widespread diplomatic acceptance, particularly from Western governments and multilateral bodies that have already denounced the vote. Sanctions and diplomatic isolation could persist or be tightened if the international community judges the process invalid.

The humanitarian context amplifies political risks. With ACLED reporting at least 16,600 civilian fatalities and the UN estimating 3.6 million displaced, the country faces acute needs for protection, aid access and reconstruction. A government viewed as a military facade may struggle to coordinate large-scale relief and could provoke further resistance from armed groups and local authorities that reject junta authority.

Economically, prolonged instability will deter investment, hinder recovery and deepen poverty. Even if the junta secures formal control of state institutions, long-running conflict and fragmented territorial control limit its capacity to deliver services and rebuild infrastructure, raising the prospect of a prolonged low-level conflict and enduring fragmentation.

Comparison & data

These numbers show a contrast with Myanmar’s previous national elections, where turnout and party competition were considerably higher. The limited geographic reach of voting and the exclusion of major opposition parties mean the numerical results reflect a highly constrained contest rather than a full national mandate.

Reactions & quotes

International agencies and Western capitals have been quick to criticise the process. The UN and multiple human-rights organisations have described the poll as lacking credibility because of the absence of a meaningful opposition and constraints on free expression and assembly.

“In an environment where serious rivals were removed and laws restrict dissent, the contest cannot be said to be a level playing field.”

Crisis Group (senior Myanmar adviser)

Crisis Group warned that the structural advantages built into the process make a one-sided outcome likely. The group highlighted legal and administrative changes that removed potential challengers and constrained campaigning, diminishing the prospects for an open contest.

“A large number of votes were cast, showing that the people have a strong desire to participate in the democratic process.”

State media quoting Senior General Min Aung Hlaing

The junta leadership framed the early phase as a success and urged officials to increase turnout ahead of later rounds. International critics, however, say those statements do not address the disenfranchisement of the main opposition and the ongoing state of conflict.

“Without meaningful participation of opposition voices, the election lacks the basic elements of credibility and freedoms guaranteed by international standards.”

UN and rights groups (collective statements)

Those organisations emphasised the inability of millions of displaced or conflict-affected citizens to participate fully, and said that restrictions on parties and media undermine the integrity of the vote.

Unconfirmed

• Exact nationwide turnout for the full multi-phase process remains incomplete until official tallies are released after the final round on 25 January.
• Precise voting levels in conflict-affected townships where the junta lacks full control have not been independently verified.
• The extent to which any newly formed assembly will secure formal recognition from a range of foreign governments is uncertain and will depend on post-election diplomatic responses.

Bottom line

The second stage of Myanmar’s 2026 election advances the junta’s effort to entrench a political structure under military influence, but the credibility of that structure is widely disputed. With core opposition parties dissolved and large parts of the country contested by armed groups, the results reflect constrained participation more than a broad national mandate.

Externally, the vote is unlikely to produce immediate normalisation with Western states or international institutions that have already questioned its legitimacy. Domestically, the electoral exercise may deepen divisions and leave a new administration struggling to assert authority over territory and to address a severe humanitarian emergency.

Sources

• The Guardian (international news media)
• Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) (conflict monitoring organisation)
• United Nations (international organisation; humanitarian estimates)
• International Crisis Group (think tank; Myanmar analysis)
• Associated Press (international news media; reporting on on-the-ground developments)