Published Sep. 5, 2025 — The New York Post’s Week 1 NFL bettor’s guide lists against-the-spread picks for every opener, led by Steelers -3 over the Jets and identifies Bears, Falcons and Ravens as top best bets.
Key Takeaways
- Steelers favored -3 at MetLife over the Jets in Aaron Glenn’s head-coaching debut.
- Giants are taken at +6 vs. Washington amid expected offensive improvement under Brian Daboll.
- Chiefs open as -3 vs. Chargers in São Paulo (Friday) — a short spread despite the international setting.
- Broncos are the week’s biggest favorites at -8 vs. the Titans (Mile High advantage).
- Bengals are listed -5.5 at Cleveland, banking on Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase to deliver.
- Best bets called: Bears, Falcons, Ravens; Lock of the week: Bears (+1.5 vs. Vikings).
- Injuries and coaching changes (Jets, Jaguars, Broncos, Titans) are major factors in several lines.
Verified Facts
The column, published Sep. 5, 2025, presents against-the-spread (ATS) selections for Week 1. Selected lines and picks include: Steelers -3 over Jets; Giants +6 vs. Washington; Chiefs -3 vs. Chargers (São Paulo, Friday); Falcons +2.5 vs. Buccaneers; Cardinals -6.5 vs. Saints; Raiders +2.5 vs. Patriots; Bengals -5.5 vs. Browns; Jaguars -3.5 vs. Panthers; Colts -1 vs. Dolphins; Broncos -8 vs. Titans; Seahawks +2.5 vs. 49ers; Lions +2.5 vs. Packers; Texans +3 vs. Rams; Ravens -1 vs. Bills; Bears +1.5 vs. Vikings (Monday).
The piece notes coaching debuts and roster changes affecting several matchups: Aaron Glenn leads the Jets against veteran Aaron Rodgers (Steelers); Liam Coen debuts for the Jaguars; Sean Payton’s Broncos open as heavy favorites against rookie Titans QB Cam Ward; Pete Carroll and Mike Vrabel are mentioned in connection with team transitions.
Statistical references preserved from the source include last season outcomes and matchup history where relevant — for example, Washington posted 12 wins in 2024, and the Giants had a notably poor 2024 campaign. The column also recalls past Jets coaches’ first-game records: Parcells (1997), Herm Edwards (2001), Mangini (2006) and Rex Ryan (2009), with their respective results.
Context & Impact
Why these lines matter: Week 1 spreads reflect both on-field changes (new coaches, rookie starters, key free-agent moves) and off-field uncertainty (injury reports, limited camp tape). Heavy favorites like the Broncos (-8) are priced partly on opponent inexperience and venue (Mile High), while smaller lines — Chiefs -3, Ravens -1 — indicate expectation of tight, high-profile matchups.
Injury and availability notes drive several choices. The column highlights potential absences such as Tristan Wirfs and Chris Godwin for Tampa Bay, questions around Christian Gonzalez for New England, and Tetairoa McMillan’s hamstring for the Panthers — each factor that can swing totals and ATS outcomes.
Betting implications: smaller spreads (±3) put a premium on turnover margin and special teams. Week 1 also tends to reward caution; the guide balances favorites that project to control match tempo (Broncos, Bengals) with underdog plays that exploit uncertainty (Giants +6, Raiders +2.5).
“Tough task for Gang Glenn,” the column notes about the Jets-Steelers matchup, underscoring uncertainty with a new Jets staff versus an experienced Steelers defense.
New York Post NFL Bettor’s Guide (Sep. 5, 2025)
Unconfirmed
- Final injury statuses for key players (e.g., Alijah Vera-Tucker, Tristan Wirfs, Chris Godwin, Christian Gonzalez, Tetairoa McMillan) may change before kickoff.
- Exact game-day weather conditions and any late scratches that could alter point spreads are not confirmed in this guide.
- Short-term practice reports and last-minute roster moves after publication are not reflected here.
Bottom Line
This Week 1 ATS guide combines matchup context, coaching changes and reported injuries to produce a full slate of picks — favoring the Steelers, Bengals and Broncos on expected control, while recommending underdog value with the Giants and Raiders. The column singles out Bears, Falcons and Ravens as best bets and designates the Bears’ Monday line as the lock of the week.
As always for opening-week wagers, monitor official injury reports and late-moving lines before placing stakes.