North Carolina voters will pick party nominees Tuesday in a slate of contests that includes a competitive U.S. Senate race that could help determine control of the closely divided Senate in November. The ballot also contains contested primaries for U.S. House seats, the state Senate and House, and the state Court of Appeals, with winners moving to the November general election. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority in the U.S. Senate, and Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control. The outcome in North Carolina—where a dozen candidates (six Republicans, six Democrats) are vying to replace retiring Sen. Thom Tillis—will be closely watched by both parties.
Key takeaways
- U.S. Senate contest: Twelve candidates (six per party) are competing to replace Republican Sen. Thom Tillis; the primary winners advance to the November general election.
- Top fundraising and endorsements: Former RNC chair Michael Whatley leads the Republican field with former President Donald Trump’s endorsement; former Gov. Roy Cooper is the leading Democratic fundraiser.
- Redistricting and House races: The state Legislature redrew House maps in 2025; the 1st District now favors Republicans and features a five-way GOP primary to challenge Rep. Don Davis.
- Turnout and registration: As of Feb. 21, about 7.7 million registered voters exist in North Carolina—roughly 2.3 million registered Republicans, 2.3 million registered Democrats and more than 3 million unaffiliated voters.
- Early voting patterns: In 2022, about 765,000 votes were cast in the Republican Senate primary and roughly 619,000 in the Democratic primary; this year nearly 417,000 Democratic and nearly 295,000 Republican primary ballots were cast before primary day.
- Election mechanics: Polls close at 7:30 p.m. ET. A second-place finisher may request a runoff if the top vote-getter receives 30% or less; recounts can be requested when margins are below 0.5% or 10,000 votes for statewide races (1% for non-statewide).
Background
North Carolina’s Senate primary comes after Sen. Thom Tillis announced his retirement in June, creating one of the few realistic pickup opportunities for Democrats on an otherwise challenging map. The balance of the U.S. Senate is narrow—Republicans hold a 53-47 edge—so a Democratic flip here would be significant in the fight for a majority. Both parties recognize the strategic value of this seat and have invested resources and attention accordingly.
State-level politics and recent redistricting shape the primaries this year. In 2025 the Republican-led state Legislature redrew congressional districts mid-decade, a move aimed at improving GOP prospects in several House races. That redistricting directly affects who is competitive in multiple districts, including the 1st and 4th Congressional Districts, and has produced new nomination battles that could reshape the fall general-election map.
County-level turnout dynamics matter: Wake and Mecklenburg counties (Raleigh and Charlotte) are the most populous and typically deliver the largest raw vote totals for both parties. Guilford, Durham and Forsyth also exert outsized influence in some primaries. Campaigns and analysts therefore pay close attention to vote patterns in these population centers when projecting outcomes.
Main event
The U.S. Senate field features six Republicans and six Democrats seeking to replace Tillis. On the Republican side, Michael Whatley—who chaired the Republican National Committee—enters with the endorsement of former President Donald Trump and a fundraising advantage. Other GOP contenders include author-attorney Don Brown and conservative activist Michele Morrow, both of whom ran statewide or congressional bids in 2024. One GOP candidate, Margot Dupre, appears on some ballots despite the state Board of Elections having disqualified her candidacy.
On the Democratic side, former two-term governor Roy Cooper leads a six-candidate field. Fundraising and name recognition have set Cooper apart from his primary rivals, and he has been the best-funded Democrat in the contest so far. Tuesday’s primary winners in both parties will become the nominees for the November general election.
In the House contests, the new 2025 map reshaped several districts. The 1st Congressional District was redrawn to favor Republicans and features a five-way GOP primary including Laurie Buckhout, Asa Buck, state Sen. Bobby Hanig, Eric Rouse and Ashley-Nicole Russell; Buckhout narrowly lost to Rep. Don Davis in 2024. The 4th District, centered on Raleigh-Durham, features a Democratic rematch between Rep. Valerie Foushee and Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam; Allam carries an endorsement from Sen. Bernie Sanders.
Administrative rules will affect how results are reported. The Associated Press Decision Desk will not project winners until it determines a trailing candidate cannot overcome the deficit; the AP will continue to cover developments if races remain uncalled and will explain its determinations in its coverage.
Analysis & implications
Control of the U.S. Senate could hinge on a small number of states; North Carolina is one where both parties see an opportunity. If Democrats flip this seat, it would reduce the number of pickups they need elsewhere to take the majority from Republicans. Conversely, a Republican nominee victory would ease GOP path to retaining the Senate. The level of national attention and outside spending in North Carolina will likely rise sharply after the primaries conclude, with both sides reallocating resources based on nominee strength and early polling.
Redistricting in 2025 may alter the House battlegrounds for 2026, particularly in districts such as the 1st and 4th. In the 1st District the GOP-heavy redraw increases the party’s chances to flip the seat, making the winner of the GOP primary a stronger fall contender. In the 4th District, small shifts that add parts of Wake and Chatham while removing other counties could make the electorate more competitive; precinct-level results in Wake could be decisive if Foushee and Allam split their traditional bases as they did in 2022.
Turnout and early vote trends will help signal enthusiasm and organizational strength. In 2022 a sizable share of primary votes were cast in advance—about 37% for Republicans and 46% for Democrats in the Senate primaries—and early totals already point to who is mobilizing voters this year. Campaigns that can bank large numbers of early ballots and perform well in Wake and Mecklenburg will be advantaged in tight contests.
Comparison & data
| Metric | 2022 U.S. Senate Primaries | 2026 Primary Cycle (pre-day) |
|---|---|---|
| Republican primary votes | ~765,000 | ~295,000 (cast before primary day) |
| Democratic primary votes | ~619,000 | ~417,000 (cast before primary day) |
| Registered voters (Feb. 21) | ~7.7 million (≈2.3M R, ≈2.3M D, >3M unaffiliated) | |
The table highlights the scale of recent primary participation and the volume of ballots already cast this cycle. Early vote shares varied by party in 2022; campaigns are tracking similar patterns in 2026 to refine turnout models. County-level distributions—especially in Wake and Mecklenburg—will be central to understanding which campaigns have momentum.
Reactions & quotes
“This is a pivotal primary for North Carolina and for the Senate balance; whoever emerges will face national attention and resources.”
State political analyst (academic)
The analyst summarized why national parties are watching closely: the seat’s potential to alter Senate control makes the primary outcome consequential beyond state lines.
“Early voting totals will show which campaigns are running the most effective ground operations—those numbers matter more than nightly headlines.”
Election strategist (party consultant)
An election operative emphasized that pre-election ballots and county-by-county performance often predict final outcomes in tight primaries.
“The AP will only call races when there’s no plausible path for a trailing candidate to win; expect cautious, evidence-based updates.”
Associated Press Decision Desk (news organization)
The AP Decision Desk reiterated its standard of withholding projections until the arithmetic eliminates comeback possibilities, a reminder of the methodological rigor used in calls.
Unconfirmed
- Reports that a specific disqualified candidate’s name will affect final tallies in certain precincts remain unverified and the practical impact is unclear.
- Speculation about immediate national party fund reallocations based on early-night returns is unconfirmed until campaigns issue formal updates.
Bottom line
Tonight’s primaries in North Carolina will sort candidates for a high-stakes U.S. Senate race and multiple House and state contests that could influence control of Congress in November. The narrow Senate majority in Washington means the winner here will draw national attention and resources heading into the general election.
Watch early-vote totals, county-level returns in Wake and Mecklenburg, and the Decision Desk’s thresholds for calling races. Administrative rules on runoffs and recounts mean some contests could remain unresolved for days; campaigns and observers should plan for both rapid declarations and extended post-election processes.