Polls in New York City are open from 6am to 9pm local time on election day; initial tallies begin shortly after closing and will trickle in overnight. Historical precedent from 2021 shows most ballots were reported before midnight, with the Associated Press declaring Eric Adams the winner around that hour. Aggregated polls from The New York Times place Zohran Mamdani well ahead of his challengers in many samples, while early voting figures show heavy pre-election participation. Tonight’s count will test whether Mamdani’s lead holds across boroughs, whether Andrew Cuomo’s independent bid trims the margins, and how Curtis Sliwa’s Republican turnout performs.
Key takeaways
- Polling window: New York City polling places are open 06:00–21:00 local time; first results expected shortly after 21:00.
- Past precedent: In 2021 most votes were counted before midnight and the Associated Press called the race for Eric Adams around 00:00.
- Early voting scale: Local analysis found more than 732,000 early votes cast, which represented about 65% of the total votes in the entire 2021 mayoral race.
- Poll margins: The New York Times aggregation has Zohran Mamdani leading by roughly 5–25 percentage points over Curtis Sliwa and Andrew Cuomo in recent polls.
- Top candidates: Zohran Mamdani (34, Democrat) runs on affordability measures; Andrew Cuomo (67, independent) emphasizes experience despite past controversies; Curtis Sliwa (71, Republican) centers law-and-order activism.
- Voting mechanics: New York offered nine days of early voting that ended on 2 November, concentrating a sizable share of ballots before election day.
- Donor dynamics: Cuomo’s campaign has drawn support from prominent establishment figures and wealthy donors, while Mamdani’s grassroots coalition has mobilized younger and working-class voters.
Background
Zohran Mamdani, a 34-year-old assemblyman from Queens, emerged from a competitive Democratic primary as the party’s nominee. Born in Uganda and raised in New York City, Mamdani brands himself a democratic socialist and has campaigned heavily on affordability — proposing rent freezes, expanded free childcare and fare-free buses — and would be the city’s first Muslim mayor if elected. His candidacy has mobilized younger voters, many working-class families and communities of color with a progressive, multiracial campaign infrastructure.
Andrew Cuomo, 67, entered the contest initially as a Democrat challenging incumbent Eric Adams before losing the primary and continuing as an independent candidate. Cuomo has emphasized his decades-long public-service résumé and infrastructure accomplishments; his bid also contends with persistent controversies, including the 2021 resignation amid sexual-harassment allegations and scrutiny over nursing-home decisions during the Covid-19 pandemic. High-profile endorsements and donations from establishment figures and wealthy backers have shaped the perception of his campaign.
Curtis Sliwa, the 71-year-old founder of the Guardian Angels, represents the Republican ticket and is best known for street-level crime-prevention activism. Sliwa previously ran in 2021 and tonight’s race again positions him as an outsider appealing to voters concerned about safety and order. His campaign narrative relies on personal resilience and a populist distrust of political elites.
Main event
On election day, polls will close at 9pm and the first official results should begin appearing soon after as boards report local totals to the citywide canvass. Early returns typically come from precincts with high-ballot scanner capacity and mail-early collections; larger delays occur where ballots must be adjudicated or where provisional ballots are counted. Election officials have prepared for a multi-stage reporting process, and media outlets will combine certified tallies with absentee and provisional ballots over subsequent days.
Campaign operations tonight will focus on turnout hotspots: Mamdani’s field teams seek to protect leads in boroughs with strong youth and working-class participation, Cuomo’s staff will watch for cross-over and centrist suburban votes, and Sliwa’s operation will aim for concentrated Republican turnout in the boroughs where that base is largest. The early-vote volume — historically significant in New York — will be a key determinant of how quickly a clear leader emerges.
Observers expect the count to mirror past patterns where a combination of in-person election-night returns and early-vote tallies establishes a trend before absentee and provisional ballots adjust final margins. Given the range in polls (5–25 points in favor of Mamdani in many aggregates), election-night coverage will emphasize where returns align or diverge from those samples. Officials caution against premature conclusions until major boroughs and early-vote totals are reported.
Analysis & implications
A decisive win for Zohran Mamdani would signal a continued surge of progressive, generation-driven politics in New York City, underscoring affordability and social services as winning issues. A smaller-than-expected margin could indicate rising centrist or conservative resistance to Mamdani’s platform and might embolden challengers in future citywide contests. For city governance, the margin of victory will shape Mamdani’s mandate to pursue aggressive rent, childcare and transit initiatives; narrow wins could force negotiation with a potentially divided City Council.
If Andrew Cuomo performs strongly despite running as an independent, it would demonstrate that experience-based, establishment-aligned messaging still resonates with a sizable segment of voters — especially among older and more moderate constituencies. A Cuomo resurgence could also reshape donor influence and revive debates about political rehabilitation and accountability given his 2021 resignation. Conversely, a weak showing would likely blunt any claims of a comeback and could prompt donor re-evaluations.
Curtis Sliwa’s role is consequential beyond his own chances: a meaningful Republican share could change coalition dynamics in boroughs where split votes affect down-ballot races and council contests. His candidacy also illustrates how outsider personalities draw media attention and can alter turnout patterns, particularly among voters for whom public-safety messaging is decisive. National implications include how urban political trends feed into party strategies ahead of midterms and local primaries.
Comparison & data
| Measure | 2021 figure / context |
|---|---|
| Early votes reported | 732,000+ (about 65% of total 2021 mayoral votes) |
| Typical first-night call | Most votes counted before midnight; AP called 2021 race around 00:00 |
| Recent poll spread (NYT aggregate) | Zohran Mamdani ahead by ~5–25 points |
The high share of early ballots in 2021 means early-vote returns can dominate the initial narrative; if early voting patterns this year mirror that distribution, the first-night trend could be conclusive or, at minimum, highly indicative. Polling ranges are broad, and varying turnout across boroughs can compress or expand observed leads during counting. Analysts will watch precinct-level returns to see whether samples were representative of the electorate that actually voted.
Reactions & quotes
Campaigns, pundits and voters reacted to returns and projections with quick public statements; the quotes below capture campaign tone without implying final outcomes.
“They all think everybody has a price.”
Curtis Sliwa
Context: Sliwa used this line earlier in the campaign to argue he would not be bought off by wealthy donors and to frame his outsider persona against establishment figures. Campaign staffers highlighted it as emblematic of his refusal to withdraw despite pressure.
“Curtis Sliwa doesn’t have a price. I came into this world with nothing, I’ll leave with nothing — ashes to ashes, dust to dust.”
Curtis Sliwa
Context: This extended remark was used by Sliwa to underscore his populist credentials and to contrast his personal narrative with the perceived financial backing of rival campaigns. Observers see such rhetoric as aimed at maintaining a loyal base even in a challenging general-election environment.
“Associated Press called the 2021 mayoral race around midnight when sufficient returns were reported.”
Associated Press (media)
Context: Media organizations cite the AP’s 2021 call as a benchmark for how quickly major-city races can be decided once a critical mass of returns is in hand, though officials note each election’s timetable depends on turnout composition and ballot-processing requirements.
Unconfirmed
- The claim that allies of another campaign offered Curtis Sliwa up to $10 million to drop out remains unverified in public records and should be treated as an allegation unless confirmed by reliable documentary evidence.
- Whether tonight’s early returns will precisely reflect poll margins (5–25 points for Mamdani) is uncertain; polls are estimates and turnout patterns can shift outcomes.
Bottom line
Expect a staggered reporting night: early-vote-heavy precincts and scanner-ready returns will shape the first narrative, but absentee and provisional ballots could alter margins over subsequent days. Given the strong early-vote participation in recent cycles, initial leads may be durable, though narrow advantages will attract intense scrutiny and potential recount attention.
The likely scenarios are straightforward: a clear Mamdani victory would cement a progressive, affordability-focused mandate; a closer result or upset would signal a more contested policy environment and a different balance of power in city politics. For voters and policymakers, the immediate story is turnout and margin; the longer story will be how the winner translates electoral support into governable coalitions across a diverse five-borough city.
Sources
- The Guardian — news report summarizing live results and candidate profiles.
- The City — local news outlet; analysis of early voting patterns in New York City.
- Associated Press — media report on 2021 mayoral call and historical vote-reporting timelines.
- The New York Times (poll aggregation) — referenced for poll aggregation and recent sampling trends.