Lead
Forecasters are warning that a winter storm approaching the New York City region could drop as much as 10 inches of snow from Sunday into Monday. The National Weather Service issued an updated, higher-end projection early Friday afternoon that roughly doubles some earlier estimates issued just hours before. Officials say the storm’s track, timing and intensity remain uncertain, and cautioned that temperatures will be close to freezing at the start of the event. City and state authorities are urging residents to prepare and consider altering travel plans.
Key Takeaways
- The National Weather Service’s early Friday update raised the high-end snowfall estimate to as much as 10 inches for parts of the NYC/NJ area for Sunday into Monday.
- Temperatures are expected to be marginal: forecast highs in the 40s on Friday and Saturday, dipping into the mid-30s on Sunday and early next week, with near-freezing at the onset of precipitation.
- Northeast winds of 30–40 mph are possible Sunday, increasing travel difficulty and raising localized coastal flood risks during high tides Sunday and Monday.
- Officials advised avoiding nonessential travel Sunday and Monday morning to allow snow-removal crews to operate and to reduce strain on transit systems.
- State and city leaders, including Gov. Kathy Hochul and NYC Emergency Management, issued public reminders to travel cautiously and carry emergency supplies.
- Computer forecast models began indicating heavier snowfall only within the last 12–24 hours, increasing short-term uncertainty in amounts and timing.
Background
The region entered the winter season already on edge after a major January storm was followed by an extended cold snap; more than 20 people were later found dead in the cold or at residences in the weeks that followed. That recent experience has heightened sensitivity to new winter systems and raised public interest in official guidance and sheltering resources. Meteorologists emphasize that small shifts in the storm track or in surface temperatures can substantially change accumulation totals across the metropolitan area, making short-fuse forecast revisions common.
Forecasters use a suite of high-resolution computer models and observational data to refine expectations as a system approaches; in this case, several models converged toward heavier precipitation signals in the 12–24 hours before Friday’s update. Stakeholders affected include municipal snow-removal operations, transit agencies, schools and health and social-service providers that manage shelters and outreach during cold snaps. Emergency-management teams typically stage equipment and staff ahead of predicted storms but delay large-scale deployments until confidence in timing and intensity increases.
Main Event
Early Friday afternoon the National Weather Service posted an updated forecast raising the possible accumulation to as much as 10 inches in parts of New York City and northern New Jersey for the Sunday–Monday window. That high-end estimate was a notable increase from projections a few hours earlier; forecasters said the change reflected recent model trends showing a more favorable setup for heavier snowfall. At the same time, NWS cautioned that the system’s precise track, the timing of precipitation onset, and the vertical temperature profile remain key unknowns that could reduce or increase totals locally.
Temperatures are expected to be marginal at the start of the event, with readings a bit above freezing before falling to around freezing Sunday night, the NWS said. That thermal profile raises questions about how much precipitation will fall as snow versus rain or a mixed type near the coast and on bridges and elevated roadways. Northeast winds are forecast to gust into the 30–40 mph range on Sunday, which can create blowing and drifting snow in some neighborhoods as well as make road travel more hazardous.
City officials posted guidance on social media urging residents to adjust travel plans for Sunday and Monday morning and to avoid unnecessary trips to allow snow-removal crews to operate. Transit riders were advised to expect delays, and officials recommended mass transit over driving when travel is necessary. Gov. Kathy Hochul and other leaders echoed those preparations, advising motorists to pack emergency supplies and drive slowly on slick roadways.
There is also a risk of some coastal flooding during high tides Sunday and Monday, particularly where strong onshore winds and astronomical tides coincide. Local emergency managers monitor tide forecasts in parallel with snowfall projections because combined impacts—snow, wind, and coastal surge—can complicate response and cleanup operations. Authorities typically coordinate pre-positioning of resources in low-lying areas when high tide flooding is expected alongside winter precipitation.
Analysis & Implications
Even when accumulations remain in the single digits, the combination of cold surfaces, marginal temperatures and gusty winds can amplify impacts on transportation networks. If heavy snow falls while temperatures hover near freezing, bridges and elevated roadways may ice over faster than pavement at street level, creating a patchwork of hazardous conditions across the region. Transit agencies face an elevated risk of delays and service slowdowns; commuter rail and bus operations could see longer travel times and staging of equipment may be required overnight before the storm.
Public-safety and social-service systems will also be tested. After January’s storm and the subsequent cold period, officials reported significant strain on shelters and outreach to vulnerable residents. A 10-inch event concentrated in urban neighborhoods would likely increase demand for warming centers, outreach to the elderly and those without power, and coordinated checks by city agencies. Emergency planners will weigh resource allocation between snow-removal, responding to downed trees or power lines, and supporting residents who lose heat or electricity.
Economically, even a short-lived storm can disrupt retail, deliveries and service-sector operations in a dense metropolitan area. Employers and schools may choose remote options or delayed openings to limit exposure and reduce commuting loads. Conversely, if the storm underperforms the higher-end forecast—dropping mainly rain at the coast—impacts will be localized and easier to manage; that asymmetry underlines the importance of flexibility in agency and business planning ahead of arrival.
Comparison & Data
| Parameter | Midday Friday Forecast | Early Friday NWS Update |
|---|---|---|
| Snow accumulation | 3–5 inches (local variability) | Up to 10 inches in parts of NYC/NJ |
| Temperatures (surface) | 40s Fri–Sat | Mid-30s Sunday; near freezing at onset |
| Wind gusts | Light–moderate | NE gusts 30–40 mph possible Sunday |
| Coastal flood risk | Low–moderate | Moderate during high tides Sunday–Monday |
The table shows how a short-term model trend changed expected accumulations and hazards within hours. Emergency managers use comparisons like these to decide when to escalate responses; a doubling of the high-end snowfall estimate prompts additional pre-staging of plows and personnel. Local impacts will remain highly site-specific because urban microclimates, proximity to the coast and elevation influence snowfall vs. rain outcomes.
Reactions & Quotes
Forecasters stressed the narrow window for confidence and the sensitivity of totals to small changes in temperature and track. The NWS meteorologist who discussed the system noted that the temperature profile at the start of the event will be a decisive factor for accumulation.
“One thing I will say is that the temperatures this time around will be much more marginal.”
James Tomasini, National Weather Service (NWS New York)
City officials used social posts to urge caution and to prioritize public safety over travel convenience, emphasizing support for crews clearing streets.
“Avoid unnecessary travel Sunday and Monday morning if you can to allow snow operations crews to operate.”
NYC Emergency Management (post on X)
The governor’s office reiterated standard safety steps for motorists and tips on preparedness, advising drivers to carry essentials and allow extra time for trips.
“Be sure to travel smart and leave yourself ample time to get to where you’re going.”
Gov. Kathy Hochul (statement, as reported)
Unconfirmed
- The precise snow–rain boundary at the coast for Sunday remains uncertain and may change as the system evolves.
- Exact neighborhood-by-neighborhood totals and which corridors will see the highest accumulations are not yet fixed and depend on late model shifts.
- Whether the storm will trigger significant power outages in the metro area is currently unknown; such outcomes depend on wind, heavy wet snow, and tree conditions at the time of the event.
Bottom Line
A storm Sunday into Monday now carries the potential for meaningful snowfall—up to 10 inches in spots—along with gusty northeast winds and a moderate risk of coastal flooding during high tides. The change in the high-end forecast happened quickly after models trended heavier in the prior 12–24 hours, underscoring the need for residents and agencies to stay alert to updates.
Actionable steps: avoid nonessential travel Sunday and Monday morning if possible, carry emergency supplies if you must drive, and follow official channels for the latest forecast and guidance. Because the system remains sensitive to small temperature and track shifts, keep plans flexible and monitor NWS and local emergency-management updates through Sunday.