— OPEC+ is set to approve a further increase in oil production from October, with sources saying the group will add roughly 130,000–140,000 barrels per day, beginning the phased unwinding of a 1.65 million bpd cut as demand softens.
Key Takeaways
- OPEC+ plans to raise output from October by about 130,000–140,000 barrels per day.
- Sources say an agreement in principle centers on roughly 135,000 bpd as the likely figure.
- The move begins to unwind an eight-member cut totaling 1.65 million bpd, over a planned one-year horizon.
- The group already reversed earlier reductions since April, adding roughly 2.5 million bpd in quota increases.
- Brent crude traded near $66 a barrel, supported partly by Western sanctions on Russia and Iran.
- Capacity limits mean mainly Saudi Arabia and the UAE can supply additional barrels immediately.
- Members will meet online at 12:30 GMT to formalize the decision; future meetings allow pauses, accelerations or reversals.
Verified Facts
Reported on Sept 7, 2025, multiple OPEC+ sources said the alliance intends to raise production from October by between 130,000 and 140,000 bpd. Two sources indicated an agreement in principle for at least 135,000 bpd, while a third described a similar figure as likely.
Since April, OPEC+ has rolled back earlier output cuts and raised quotas by about 2.5 million bpd, a change equivalent to roughly 2.4% of global oil demand. At their August meeting, members approved a 547,000 bpd increase for September.
The planned October increase would begin unwinding a separate 1.65 million bpd cut taken by eight members. Under the current approach, that tranche would be removed over roughly one year, but the group retains the flexibility to adjust the pace at future meetings.
Market context helps explain the decision: Brent crude closed at $65.50 a barrel on the Friday before the meeting, down 2.2% on weak U.S. jobs data and expectations of further OPEC+ output rises. Prices remain above a 2025 low near $58 seen in April, in part due to sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil flows.
Context & Impact
OPEC+ pumps around half of the world’s oil. The planned incremental increases aim to balance competing goals: regain market share while avoiding a price collapse that could harm member revenues. Slower demand growth worldwide has prompted a more cautious pace of increases compared with recent months.
Because many members are already producing close to capacity, analysts and production data show Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates as the primary sources of additional supply. That concentration of spare capacity shapes how quickly the market will be rebalanced.
Potential impacts include:
- Modest downward pressure on prices if the additional barrels hit the market as planned.
- Room for OPEC+ to pause or reverse hikes if demand weakens further or prices fall sharply.
- Competitive responses from non-OPEC producers, notably U.S. shale, which can increase output when prices are attractive.
Official Statements
“So far the matter is still uncertain.”
Mohammed al-Najjar, Iraq’s OPEC delegate (comments at an energy conference, Baghdad)
Unconfirmed
- The exact final figure for October may change during the online meeting scheduled at 12:30 GMT.
- Timelines for the full unwind remain contingent on monthly monitoring and future consensus among all members.
Bottom Line
OPEC+’s planned October increase of roughly 130,000–140,000 bpd signals a cautious return of barrels to the market amid softer demand and persistent price support from geopolitical factors. The group retains options to adjust the pace of future hikes, keeping markets attentive to upcoming meetings and data.