In late February 2026, a series of suicide attacks inside Pakistan — including a February 6 mosque bombing in Islamabad that killed at least 36 and wounded about 170 — preceded Islamabad’s cross-border air raids into Afghanistan’s Nangarhar and Paktika provinces. Pakistani authorities say the strikes, carried out early Sunday, were intelligence-based and hit seven camps, killing about 80 militants; Kabul rejects that account and reports civilian casualties. The strikes followed a string of deadly incidents on Pakistani soil, diplomatic démarches on February 19, and growing Pakistani concern about closer engagement between India and the Taliban government in Kabul. Regional capitals and rights monitors now warn the incident risks a wider diplomatic and security spiral.
Key Takeaways
- On February 6, a suicide bomber attacked a Shia mosque in Islamabad, killing at least 36 worshippers and injuring 170, the deadliest in the recent wave of attacks.
- Subsequent attacks included a vehicle-borne assault in Bajaur that killed 11 soldiers and a child, and a Bannu suicide strike that killed two soldiers, including a lieutenant colonel.
- Pakistan summoned the Afghan deputy head of mission on February 19, then launched air raids on early Sunday targeting camps in Nangarhar and Paktika, claiming about 80 militants killed across seven camps.
- Afghan officials say the strikes struck a madrasa and homes, with Afghan sources reporting at least 17 killed in Nangarhar; Kabul pledged a “measured and appropriate response.”
- India condemned Pakistan’s strikes, stressing Afghan sovereignty and noting civilian casualties; Islamabad views New Delhi’s expanding ties with Taliban-ruled Kabul as complicating its security calculus.
- Pakistan’s government and army cite long-standing complaints that Afghanistan is being used as a base for anti-Pakistan groups such as the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).
- Security data cited by Pakistani institutes show a rise in attacks: 699 attacks last year (a 34% increase) and a 2025 toll of at least 1,034 terrorism-related fatalities with 1,366 injured.
Background
Since the Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan in 2021, Pakistan has repeatedly accused Kabul of allowing sanctuaries for groups that strike Pakistani targets, allegations the Taliban has denied. The TTP, distinct from but socially and ideologically linked to the Afghan Taliban and active since 2007, is blamed by Islamabad for many cross-border attacks. Pakistan and the Taliban held talks brokered by Qatar and Turkiye last autumn; those sessions produced a temporary ceasefire but no durable agreement.
The relationship is layered: Pakistan fears both militant sanctuaries across its western border and a rising India-Taliban engagement on its eastern flank. In October 2025, Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi visited New Delhi — the highest-level Taliban visit since 2021 — and India reopened its Kabul diplomatic presence, while New Delhi provided notable earthquake aid weeks later. Islamabad perceives those moves as eroding its leverage over the Taliban and potentially reducing Kabul’s willingness to act against anti-Pakistan militants.
Main Event
The crisis accelerated after the February 6 mosque bombing in Islamabad that killed dozens during Friday prayers. Days later, an explosives-laden vehicle struck a security post in Bajaur, killing 11 soldiers and a child; Pakistani authorities identified the attacker as an Afghan national. On February 19 Islamabad summoned Kabul’s deputy mission official to press for action. Two days later, a Bannu convoy was hit by a suicide bomber, killing two soldiers, which Pakistani officials described as the last in a string of provocations.
Responding, Pakistan’s military said it conducted intelligence-based airstrikes on early Sunday in border districts of Nangarhar and Paktika, targeting seven camps and killing about 80 militants. Afghan authorities rejected the Pakistani account, saying the strikes hit a religious school and civilian homes, with Afghan sources telling regional media that at least 17 people died in Nangarhar alone. Kabul’s defence ministry called for restraint and promised a measured response.
New Delhi publicly condemned Pakistan’s incursions into Afghan territory, highlighting civilian casualties, and accused Islamabad of trying to externalise its internal security failures. Islamabad, for its part, said it had “conclusive evidence” linking the recent Pakistan attacks to handlers based in Afghanistan and framed the strikes as necessary to protect Pakistani lives and property.
Analysis & Implications
Militarily, Pakistan’s raids project an immediate deterrent intent: to signal to both the TTP and an uncooperative Kabul that attacks will be met with force. But the tactic carries risks. Cross-border strikes risk inflaming Afghan public opinion, strengthening anti-Pakistan sentiment, and increasing the Taliban leadership’s incentive to publicly defend Afghan sovereignty — potentially boosting their domestic legitimacy.
Politically, Islamabad confronts a narrowing set of options. With a surge of high-profile attacks at home and limited visible cooperation from Kabul, Pakistan faces intense domestic pressure to show results. Analysts argue that a purely kinetic approach may produce short-term retribution cycles without addressing the sanctuary, recruitment, and financing networks that sustain groups like the TTP.
Diplomatically, India’s public condemnation complicates Islamabad’s narrative. Even if Delhi’s material support to the Taliban is limited by geography, Pakistan views closer India-Taliban ties as a strategic challenge. Any Pakistani action perceived as disproportionate risks strengthening the Taliban–India rapport while driving Kabul and militant groups into closer tactical alignment against Pakistan.
Comparison & Data
| Event | Location | Reported deaths | Claims |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mosque bombing | Islamabad, Pakistan (Feb 6, 2026) | 36+ dead, ~170 wounded | Suicide attack during Friday prayers |
| Bajaur attack | Bajaur, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa | 11 soldiers + 1 child | Vehicle-borne explosive; attacker identified as Afghan national |
| Pakistan air raids | Nangarhar & Paktika, Afghanistan | Pakistan: ~80 militants; Afghan sources: 17+ in Nangarhar, plus civilians | Pakistan: seven camps targeted; Afghanistan: madrasa & homes hit |
The table above summarizes reported fatalities and competing narratives. Independent confirmation of militant casualty figures and the precise nature of targeted sites remains contested; Afghan and Pakistani tallies diverge, and rights groups have not yet released comprehensive investigations. Past cross-border strikes, including December 2024 raids that reportedly killed 46 people (many civilians), set a precedent for contested casualty claims and international criticism.
Reactions & Quotes
Government and diplomatic responses have been immediate and divergent. India’s Ministry of External Affairs criticized Pakistan’s strikes and highlighted civilian harm during Ramadan. Pakistan framed the strikes as a necessary self-defence measure after repeated attacks on its territory.
“India strongly condemns Pakistan’s airstrikes on Afghan territory that have resulted in civilian casualties, including women and children.”
Randhir Jaiswal, Ministry of External Affairs, India (spokesperson)
The Indian statement was viewed in Islamabad as evidence of New Delhi’s growing influence in Kabul. Pakistan’s Ministry of Information and Broadcasting issued a formal statement asserting it had “conclusive evidence” linking the recent attacks to Afghanistan-based handlers; Islamabad emphasized citizens’ safety as its paramount duty.
“The necessary measures that should be taken to protect the lives and property of the people of Pakistan will be taken and will continue to be taken.”
Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry, Inter-Services Public Relations (military spokesperson)
Unconfirmed
- Pakistan’s claim of “conclusive evidence” linking recent attackers directly to Afghan-based leadership and handlers has not been publicly released or independently verified.
- Pakistan’s casualty count of roughly 80 militants killed in the strikes is contested by Afghan authorities and local sources; independent corroboration is pending.
- Allegations that India has “penetrated” Taliban leadership and is materially enabling TTP activity lack public evidence beyond diplomatic statements.
Bottom Line
The immediate consequence of Pakistan’s air raids is a sharpening of regional tensions and increased diplomatic friction between Islamabad, Kabul and New Delhi. While Islamabad sought to demonstrate resolve after high-casualty attacks on its soil, the strikes risk producing reciprocal measures, civilian harm, and a hardening of Afghan public opinion that could undermine future dialogue.
Longer term, a sustainable Pakistani strategy will likely require a mix of calibrated security operations, verified intelligence cooperation, pressure through third-party mediators (regional states and Qatar/Turkiye), and confidence-building measures such as trade and border facilitation to reduce the incentives for militant sanctuaries. Without a credible, multi-track approach, kinetic responses alone may produce short-term effects but deepen the cycle of cross-border recrimination and instability.
Sources
- Al Jazeera — news report and on-the-record statements (media)
- Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Pakistan — official statements and diplomatic démarches (official)
- Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS) — security data and annual reports (research institute)