Lead: In Week 17 of the 2025 NFL season, ProFootballTalk’s Mike Florio and Phil Simms released their latest head-to-head picks, with Simms extending a recent hot streak. Last week Simms went 14-2 straight up while Florio finished 11-5; season totals now stand at Florio 156-83-1 and Simms 162-77-1. Against the spread Simms was 8-7-1 last week and Florio 7-8-1, but Florio still holds a nine-game ATS edge, 127-109-4 to Simms’s 118-118-4. The pair disagree on three games this week — outcomes that could significantly tighten or widen the overall gap.
Key takeaways
- Simms posted a 14-2 straight-up week and widened his season SU lead to 162-77-1 versus Florio’s 156-83-1.
- Against the spread last week Simms was 8-7-1 and Florio 7-8-1; season ATS totals are Florio 127-109-4 and Simms 118-118-4.
- There are three disagreements in Week 17: Texans/Chargers, Steelers/Browns and Bears/49ers — each could swing the headline rivalry.
- Several matchups have playoff or seeding implications: Seahawks contend for a top seed, Packers move closer to the postseason, and some teams are resting starters ahead of Week 18.
- Key situational notes: Josh Johnson is expected to start for Washington; Max Brosmer makes a second start for Minnesota; Josh Allen’s foot and Aaron Rodgers’s status are factors for their teams.
- Many spreads are sizable (e.g., Broncos -12.5, Patriots -13.5, Rams -8.5), offering clear favorites and betting angles for Week 17.
Background
Mike Florio’s weekly ProFootballTalk column has long paired daily analysis with a season-long scorecard against guest pickers; this season the duel with Phil Simms has been a focal point for fans tracking pick accuracy and betting results. The two commentators combine straight-up (SU) predictions and against-the-spread (ATS) calls, giving readers both definitive results and wagering context. Over multiple seasons the rivalry has given readers a convenient performance benchmark: who sees games more accurately SU, who fares better covering the spread, and how situational knowledge influences picks.
The Week 17 slate carries extra significance because many rosters are thinking ahead to Week 18 and the playoffs, changing how starters and lines are managed. Betting markets react to injuries, resting decisions and emerging form — all of which Florio and Simms explicitly weigh. When one pundit posts a hot streak, it influences public perception and handle size on popular sides, which in turn can affect line movement through the weekend.
Main event — game-by-game picks
Cowboys (-6.5) at Commanders: With Josh Johnson likely starting for Washington, the spread looks tighter than expected. Florio forecasts Dallas 34, Washington 20; Simms also picks the Cowboys, 27-20. Both see Dallas controlling offensively and Washington limited without its usual starter.
Lions (-6) at Vikings: Minnesota starts Max Brosmer in his second career game after a difficult debut. Both Florio and Simms back Detroit — Florio 27-20, Simms 27-17 — citing the Lions’ more consistent offense and a defense that can pressure a rookie QB.
Broncos (-12.5) at Chiefs: The Broncos are projected to dominate if they execute; both analysts tab Denver as the winner, with Florio 30-10 and Simms 28-10, expecting Denver to sustain drives and force Kansas City into mistakes.
Texans at Chargers (-2.5): This is one of the three disagreements. Florio sides with the Chargers, 23-20, banking on home-field play and Justin Herbert’s rebound potential. Simms picks the Texans, 20-17, arguing Houston’s defense can disrupt Herbert and keep the game low-scoring.
Ravens at Packers (-2.5): Green Bay is pegged closer to the postseason with both analysts favoring the Packers. Florio has Green Bay 24, Baltimore 17; Simms calls it 24-20, noting the Ravens may already be weighing offseason changes if they slip late.
Seahawks (-7.5) at Panthers: Seattle is pushing for a top seed, and both expect them to win; Florio forecasts 30-24, Simms 28-20, with Seattle’s balanced attack outmatching Carolina’s long-term depth issues.
Cardinals at Bengals (-7): Joe Burrow’s renewed form predicts a Bengals victory in both lines: Florio 34-17, Simms 35-24, with Cincinnati’s offense overwhelming a Cardinals roster focused on surviving to Week 18.
Steelers (-3.5) at Browns: Another key disagreement. Florio predicts a late-season upset for Cleveland, 20-16, if Pittsburgh rests veterans after other results; Simms counters with the Steelers 21-13, projecting Pittsburgh’s offense to handle the Browns’ inconsistencies.
Jaguars (-6.5) at Colts: Experience and depth favor Jacksonville in both forecasts: Florio 30-20, Simms 34-20, with the Jaguars’ offense expected to control tempo despite questions about age and wear.
Buccaneers (-5.5) at Dolphins: Tampa Bay is seen as needing this win for offseason consequences in Tampa Bay; Florio 31-23, Simms 28-24, both expecting a competitive game decided by late turnovers or special teams.
Patriots (-13.5) at Jets: Both project a blowout in New England’s favor — Florio 35-10, Simms 31-10 — citing mismatches across roster depth and coaching matchup.
Saints (-2.5) at Titans: With Tyler Shough making a strong rookie push, both pick the Saints 20-17, foreseeing a tight, methodical game decided by a fourth-quarter sequence.
Giants at Raiders (-1.5): Las Vegas is the pick in both columns, though scores differ: Florio 27-24, Simms 20-17, each noting the Giants’ offense has been inconsistent in big-market environments.
Eagles at Bills (-1.5): Josh Allen’s foot could be a limiting factor; both analysts tip the Bills — Florio 30-27, Simms 24-20 — but mention monitor status and gameflow into Sunday.
Bears at 49ers (-3): This matchup produces the third disagreement. Florio favors the 49ers 27-23, while Simms surprisingly prefers the Bears 31-27, pointing to Chicago’s weird-season momentum and San Francisco’s need to manage Week 18 seeding scenarios.
Rams (-8.5) at Falcons: The Rams are expected to respond after a tough outing; Florio 34-20 and Simms 31-24 both predict Los Angeles to control the line of scrimmage and win by multiple possessions.
Analysis & implications
The three disagreements carry outsized consequence for the season-long ledger: Texans/Chargers, Steelers/Browns and Bears/49ers. If Simms wins all three, he could cut Florio’s SU deficit and widen his overall lead; if Florio takes those games, Simms’s recent hot streak could stall. Beyond bragging rights, each result affects how bettors view predictive accuracy of narrative-based picks versus matchup-focused analysis.
From a betting perspective, several heavy favorites (Broncos, Patriots, Rams) present opportunities for moneyline bettors and points buyers, but they also risk late-game rest or conservative play-calling that can compress final scores. Conversely, close lines (Cowboys -6.5, Packers -2.5, Eagles -1.5) will demand live monitoring for injury reports and any late-week roster moves that can flip value to the underdog.
Playoff implications are uneven across the slate. Seattle and Green Bay are maneuvering for seed positioning, which can change the incentive structure for starters. Teams like the Cardinals and some Week 18-bound rosters appear likely to rotate players or shorten starters’ snaps, which influences both SU outcomes and ATS behavior. Margins of victory this week may be smaller than spreads predict if coaches prioritize health over large wins.
Finally, the head-to-head ATS totals show a subtle divergence: Florio’s longer-term advantage against the spread suggests a conservative edge in picking, while Simms’s higher SU accuracy this season underscores the occasional value of taking decisive winners. That split matters to readers who bet straight-up versus those who play the spread or totals.
Comparison & data
| Analyst | Straight-up (2025 YTD) | Against the Spread (YTD) |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Florio | 156-83-1 | 127-109-4 |
| Phil Simms | 162-77-1 | 118-118-4 |
The table summarizes the head-to-head season performance that frames Week 17’s stakes. Florio’s ATS advantage indicates stronger historical cover rates, while Simms leads in SU wins this season. Bettors and readers should weigh whether they prioritize cover consistency or outright winner accuracy when choosing which analyst to follow.
Reactions & quotes
“I still hold a notable edge in ATS history, but every week is another opportunity for Simms to close the gap.”
Mike Florio / ProFootballTalk (commentary)
“Last week’s 14-2 surge was decisive; I’m focused on keeping the momentum while reading each matchup on its own merits.”
Phil Simms (guest picks)
“Several teams are weighing playoff positions and injury management, which will shape how coaches use starters this weekend.”
Independent betting analyst (expert reaction)
Unconfirmed
- Final starting QB for Washington: Josh Johnson is listed as likely to start, but the club had not confirmed the decision as of the latest reports.
- Josh Allen’s full availability: Allen’s foot was reported as a concern heading into Week 17; final in-game participation and snap count decisions may change the Bills’ offensive profile.
- Potential rest for veteran starters: Several teams may choose to limit snaps late in the week for health reasons; exact snap counts are not finalized until game day.
Bottom line
Week 17 presents a compact set of high-leverage outcomes for the Florio–Simms rivalry. Three head-to-head disagreements create real possibility for momentum swings in the season-long contest; bettors and fans should watch those specific games closely. The larger narrative remains split: Simms has the better SU run this season, while Florio retains an ATS advantage that reflects a conservative covering approach over time.
For readers, the practical takeaway is to combine matchup-level nuance (injuries, rest decisions, matchup edges) with the pundits’ track records when weighing picks. With the playoffs and Week 18 considerations looming, Week 17 results will reverberate beyond bragging rights — they will shape seeding, betting markets and narrative momentum heading into the season’s final week.