National Weather Service forecasters in Portland say there is an improving chance of measurable snow for parts of the Willamette Valley beginning Wednesday evening and continuing into Thursday morning. As of Feb. 17, 2026, the NWS assigned roughly a 45–60% chance that somewhere along the I‑5 corridor will receive 1–2 inches of accumulation, with a 40–65% window for any measurable snow between Wednesday evening and noon Thursday. Officials stressed the critical uncertainty: model disagreement over where a low‑pressure band will set up makes the exact location of the heaviest band hard to pin down. Whatever falls is unlikely to last long in Portland — the forecast high for Thursday is about 45°F, limiting accumulation and duration.
Key takeaways
- The National Weather Service in Portland (updated Feb. 17, 2026) places a 45–60% chance that some point along the I‑5 corridor will see 1–2 inches or more of snow between Wednesday evening and Thursday noon.
- There is a 40–65% chance of measurable snow somewhere along I‑5 during the event window; the central coast, central and northern Willamette Valley, Columbia River Gorge, Portland and Vancouver are most at risk.
- Forecasters describe three main track scenarios: Track 1 (north) ~20% chance, Track 2 (central) ~40% chance, Track 3 (south) ~20% chance; a remaining ~20% chance spreads the system from the Olympic Peninsula down into California.
- Meteorologists cite model disagreement about the low‑pressure path as the main source of forecast uncertainty, which directly affects where a concentrated snow band could set up.
- Timing raises commute concerns: snow could arrive during or just before Wednesday evening rush along segments of I‑5, producing travel delays even if totals remain modest.
- Warm air and a forecast high near 45°F in Portland on Thursday make long‑lasting accumulation unlikely in the city, though colder microclimates and higher elevations could see more persistence.
Background
Portland and the broader Willamette Valley periodically experience short‑duration winter precipitation events when Pacific low‑pressure systems track close to the coast and pull cold air inland. The valley’s proximity to the ocean and the Cascade and Coast Range creates sharp spatial contrasts — a small shift in a system’s track can mean the difference between rain, a dusting of snow in the hills, or accumulating snow at low elevations. Agencies that would respond to disruptions include the National Weather Service (forecasting), ODOT (road clearing and messaging), local transit agencies, school districts and county emergency managers.
Last year’s local winter events and occasional late‑season cold snaps have prompted agencies to keep contingency plans ready for brief but disruptive snow and ice. For commuters on Interstate‑5 — the region’s north–south arterial — even an inch or two of sticky snow can create substantial delays when bridges, overpasses and untreated surfaces become slippery. Forecasting teams rely on an ensemble of numerical weather models; disagreement among those models is the key challenge in converting a synoptic signal into precise local impacts.
Main event
Forecasters say the event window opens Wednesday evening and extends into Thursday morning, with the highest probability for measurable snow between late Wednesday and around noon on Thursday. The National Weather Service in Portland described three likely tracks for the coastal low: a northern track favoring the central coast and northern Willamette Valley, a central track bearing down on the I‑5 corridor through Portland and Vancouver, and a southern track that would push the heaviest band farther down the valley. The central track (Track 2) currently carries the largest single probability at about 40%.
David Bishop, a meteorologist with NWS Portland, told reporters that model disagreement over the low’s path is the linchpin for uncertainty in the forecast. That disagreement creates a broad swath of potential impact, meaning that different communities along I‑5 will need to monitor updated forecasts into Wednesday. Where the core snow band sets up, forecasters say, will determine if impacts are localized to a stretch of highway or more widespread across the region.
Operationally, transportation agencies watch both expected accumulation and timing. Even modest accumulations during peak travel hours can increase crash risk and slow freight movement. Local transit providers typically adjust service and pre‑treat key routes when accumulating snow is possible; however, officials cautioned that final decisions about service changes and road closures depend on how the low ultimately behaves overnight into Wednesday.
Analysis & implications
The primary implication of this forecast is operational: uncertainty about the low‑pressure track forces a precautionary posture among road crews, transit operators and institutions with large commuter populations. If the central track materializes, Portland and Vancouver could see localized accumulations that interfere with the evening commute. That scenario would increase demand for plowing, anti‑icing and incident response during a high‑traffic period.
Economically, short‑duration winter events typically impose modest direct costs relative to major storms, but timing matters. Delays on I‑5 affect freight and delivery schedules, and even a few hours of congestion can ripple into next‑day operations for logistics and supply chains. Schools and employers often issue earlier decisions based on the final overnight forecasts; the current model spread makes preemptive closures less likely but leaves room for last‑minute cancellations if confidence rises.
From a forecasting perspective, this event underscores how sensitive low‑track forecasts are to initial conditions and model physics. Small shifts in the coastal low’s west‑east position can concentrate precipitation in dramatically different areas. For emergency managers, that means maintaining flexible plans that can be scaled up or down quickly as new model runs and observations come in during Wednesday.
Comparison & data
| Track | Approx. probability | Primary affected zones |
|---|---|---|
| Track 1 (north) | ~20% | Central coast, northern Willamette Valley |
| Track 2 (central) | ~40% | Central/northern Willamette Valley, Portland–Vancouver, Gorge |
| Track 3 (south) | ~20% | Southern Willamette Valley |
| Distributed/other | ~20% | Anywhere from Olympic Peninsula to California |
The table summarizes the breakout of track probabilities cited by NWS Portland on Feb. 17, 2026. Those weighted chances reflect ensemble spread across global and regional models; forecasters emphasized that the central track is currently the single most likely outcome but not a majority‑certainty. Historical comparisons show that similar probabilistic forecasts have produced a wide range of realized impacts, from negligible accumulations to localized road closures when the band sets up over populated corridors.
Reactions & quotes
“Overall, across the I‑5 corridor as a whole, over our forecast area, there’s a 45 to 60% chance of one to two inches or more of snowfall occurring somewhere in that area.”
David Bishop, National Weather Service in Portland
“This is honestly one of the issues that we’ve been having with this system. The models are not in good agreement at all as to the path that the low will take and that’s what is the linchpin in determining where the snow band will potentially set up.”
David Bishop, National Weather Service in Portland
Local officials and transit agencies say they will monitor updated model runs overnight and adjust pre‑treatment and service plans as needed. Commuters are being advised to check agency alerts on Wednesday afternoon and avoid nonessential travel if forecasts narrow toward the central track.
Unconfirmed
- The exact placement and intensity of the snow band remain unconfirmed until updated model runs and observations overnight into Wednesday.
- Any specific road closures, transit service changes or school cancellations were not confirmed as of Feb. 17, 2026, and would depend on short‑term forecasts.
- Localized higher totals in valley pockets or elevated terrain are possible but not yet verified by observations.
Bottom line
Wednesday evening into Thursday morning presents a credible chance for 1–2 inches of snow somewhere along I‑5 through the Willamette Valley, including the Portland–Vancouver corridor, but where that band lands is still uncertain. Residents and commuting drivers should plan for possible travel impacts Wednesday evening and monitor official updates from the National Weather Service, ODOT and local transit agencies.
If the system follows the central track, expect the greatest disruption during evening commute hours; if it shifts north or south, impacts will concentrate elsewhere. Forecast confidence should improve with new observational data and model runs overnight, so the best course is to stay informed and allow extra travel time if you must be on the road Wednesday night.
Sources
- OregonLive / The Oregonian — (regional news outlet; original report and summary of NWS statements)
- National Weather Service Portland — (official forecast office and forecasts)
- Oregon Department of Transportation (ODOT) — (state transportation agency; operational guidance and road status)