Lead
The Baltimore Ravens travel to Lambeau Field on Saturday, Dec. 27, 2025, kickoff 8:00 p.m. ET (Peacock) needing wins to keep their playoff hopes alive, while the Green Bay Packers have already clinched a berth. Lamar Jackson was designated doubtful after a back injury, so Tyler “Snoop” Huntley is expected to start; Green Bay ruled out Jordan Love and will turn to Malik Willis. Betting lines swung sharply — the spread moved from Baltimore -2.5 to Ravens +4.5 — and our preview weighs personnel, recent form and matchup edges to recommend best bets for Week 17.
Key Takeaways
- The Ravens are 7-8 after a loss to the Patriots and must win their final two games plus receive help to reach the playoffs.
- Line movement opened Baltimore -2.5 then shifted to Ravens +4.5 (-110) after Lamar Jackson was listed as doubtful; money has come in on Green Bay.
- Jordan Love was ruled out on Friday; Malik Willis will start for the Packers, changing Green Bay’s game-plan dynamics.
- Derrick Henry has rushed for more than 90 yards in each of his last three games and is likely to be Baltimore’s primary offensive focus.
- Tyler Huntley has 15 career starts (10 with Baltimore) and in his lone start this season completed 17 of 22 for 186 yards plus 53 rushing yards vs. Chicago.
- Baltimore’s defense has improved: since Week 6 it ranks fifth in defensive success rate, a trend that could keep the game close.
- Odds snapshot: Spread Ravens +4.5 (-110); Moneyline Ravens +188 | Packers -225; Over/Under 40.5 (Under -120).
- First-half trends favor lower scoring: Ravens have gone under their first-half team total in 15 of 22 games; Packers in 15 of 21.
Background
The Ravens enter Week 17 under real postseason pressure. A 7-8 record following the loss to New England leaves Baltimore needing consecutive victories and favorable results elsewhere to sneak into the playoffs. That urgency shapes coaching choices and roster usage, especially with a veteran running back like Derrick Henry available to shoulder the load in cold-weather conditions at Lambeau Field.
Green Bay, by contrast, locked up a postseason spot after the Detroit Lions lost on Dec. 25, reducing the mathematical urgency for Coach Matt LaFleur’s team. The Packers have also been hit by injuries at quarterback; Jordan Love’s Friday ruling-out elevates backup and roster reshuffles that change Green Bay’s offensive profile against a Ravens defense that has steadied since midseason.
Historically, the Ravens show a measurable drop when Lamar Jackson is absent, but Baltimore has backups with starting experience. Tyler Huntley’s 15 career starts (10 with Baltimore) and his late-season form in 2024–25 provide some assurance that the Ravens can still execute an offense that leans on Derrick Henry and a resurgent defense.
Main Event
Game planning on both sidelines points toward a conservative script. Baltimore is expected to prioritize the run, letting Henry’s 247-pound frame control tempo and the clock in cold conditions. Henry’s recent stretch — three straight games above 90 rushing yards — and ability to convert short-yardage situations could decide field position and fourth-quarter opportunities.
With Jackson doubtful, Tyler Huntley will be tasked with efficient passing: limit turnovers, convert third downs and use play-action to free up the run. Huntley’s 17-for-22, 186-yard performance in his lone start this season (plus 53 rushing yards) is the most direct sample for projection, and Baltimore likely designs fewer downfield risks as a result.
Green Bay’s offense will lean on Josh Jacobs to take pressure off the backup QB situation. Jacobs has scored in 10 of 14 games this season, and with Malik Willis expected to start after Love’s absence, the Packers will emphasize a ground-and-short-passing game to stabilize drives and protect Willis from early overexposure.
Defensively, Baltimore’s unit has improved considerably since Week 6, ranking fifth in defensive success rate over that span. That steadiness should limit explosive Green Bay plays, while the Packers’ defense will try to contain Henry and force Baltimore into third-and-long situations where Huntley’s limitations could surface.
Analysis & Implications
Line movement from Baltimore -2.5 to Ravens +4.5 reflects sharp public money on Green Bay and reaction to Lamar Jackson’s doubtful designation. That swing may overprice the drop-off: while Jackson remains the franchise centerpiece, Huntley’s experience and Baltimore’s offensive game plan centered on Henry reduce the quarterback’s variance in this matchup. From a spread perspective, those factors justify backing the Ravens with points.
Moneyline considerations tilt the other way. Even if the spread is attractive for Baltimore +4.5, road backups at Lambeau are a known risk; the Packers, even with a backup, have been the more consistent team this season and are home favorites on the ML. Bettors must decide whether they prefer value on the spread or the relative safety of Green Bay on the moneyline.
On total points, both teams are likely to emphasize rushing attacks and ball control. The matchup features two run-friendly philosophies and improved run defenses, making the Under at 40.5 a plausible lean. Late-season conservative play-calling in cold weather at Lambeau typically suppresses scoring volatility.
The postseason picture amplifies strategic choices. A Ravens win keeps Baltimore’s hopes alive and likely forces more aggressive approaches next week. For Green Bay, a win would provide rest management options for marginal starters, but the coached decision to rest or play talent will depend on internal assessments and matchup-specific risk tolerance.
Comparison & Data
| Item | Baltimore Ravens | Green Bay Packers |
|---|---|---|
| Record (entering Week 17) | 7-8 | clinched playoff berth |
| Projected QB | Tyler Huntley (15 career starts) | Malik Willis (starter after Love out) |
| Key rusher | Derrick Henry — 3 straight games 90+ rush yds | Josh Jacobs — TDs in 10 of 14 games |
| Spread / ML / O/U | Ravens +4.5 (-110) / +188 / 40.5 | Packers -4.5 (-110) / -225 / 40.5 |
| First-half under trend | Under in 15 of 22 games | Under in 15 of 21 games |
The table summarizes the matchup essentials: a Baltimore team under pressure to win, Green Bay playing with postseason security but without its starting quarterback, and betting lines that reflect the market’s reaction to those elements. The defensive success-rate improvement for Baltimore since Week 6 (fifth in the league) is a key context item that supports the case for a low-scoring, tightly contested game.
Reactions & Quotes
“Even if Lamar Jackson is out, the Baltimore Ravens are the much more desperate side, and they won’t go down without a fight.”
Ponnaiya, Covers.com (media preview)
“Jordan Love was ruled out on Friday; Malik Willis will start tonight.”
Green Bay Packers — official injury update
Each quotation highlights why the matchup narrative focuses on desperation vs. depth. The first captures the handicapping view that urgency can narrow the talent gap; the second confirms a late change at the game’s most important position.
Unconfirmed
- Lamar Jackson’s final availability for Week 17 remains officially doubtful at publication; any late change would alter the analysis and market lines.
- How Green Bay deploys Malik Willis in the game-plan (limited roles vs. aggressive shots) is not fully confirmed and will materially affect both spread and total outcomes.
Bottom Line
This is a matchup of contrasting motivations and altered quarterback situations. For bettors seeking value on the spread, Baltimore +4.5 (-110) projects to be the best play given the Ravens’ urgency, Huntley’s starting experience, Henry’s late-season form and the unit-level defensive improvements. For risk-averse bettors, Green Bay on the moneyline is understandable because of home-field advantage and overall season strength.
Expect a low-variance, run-leaning game script that favors the Under 40.5 as a secondary play. Monitor final injury reports and gametime weather at Lambeau — any late positive for Lamar Jackson or additional Green Bay roster news would require immediate reassessment of lines and recommended tickets.