In the second quarter of the AFC Championship Game, Broncos head coach Sean Payton opted against a field-goal attempt on fourth-and-1 from the New England 14-yard line. Denver led 7-0 when Payton elected to keep the offense on the field and have backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham attempt a pass to convert and pursue a touchdown. Stidham was pressured on the play and nearly threw an interception, ending the drive without points and leaving a decision that proved consequential as the game progressed. Payton told reporters he felt the team had momentum and wanted to be aggressive given how his defense was playing.
Key takeaways
- Play call: On fourth-and-1 from New England’s 14, Payton declined a short field-goal attempt and called for a Stidham pass instead, aiming for a touchdown rather than three points.
- Score context: The decision came with Denver leading 7-0 in the second quarter, a moment when a two-score lead was attainable.
- Result of the play: Stidham was pressured and the pass nearly resulted in an interception; the drive ended without points.
- Weather factor: The game turned snowy and windy in the final 20 minutes, conditions that increased the eventual value of a field goal.
- Special teams outcomes: Denver missed two longer field-goal attempts later in the game, reducing scoring that could have offset offensive miscues.
- Turnovers: Jarrett Stidham accounted for the Broncos’ only two turnovers in the contest, a critical margin in a game with little room for error.
- Outcome: The combination of the fourth-down decision, missed kicks and turnovers contributed to Denver falling short and losing their chance to advance.
Background
The decision unfolded in the AFC Championship Game, where each possession carries amplified consequence. Fourth-and-1 calls near the red zone force coaches to weigh the immediate three-point guarantee of a make against the potential reward of a touchdown and the momentum swing that comes with it. Sean Payton, known for an aggressive play-calling philosophy in many contexts, faced that calculus while also accounting for the fact that Jarrett Stidham — the backup quarterback — was running the offense.
Denver’s defense had been performing well up to that point, which influenced Payton’s confidence in going for the conversion rather than settling for a field goal. Historically, weather can change kicking success rates; coaches sometimes factor forecast and in-game conditions into fourth-down decisions. With the game still in its first half and the Broncos holding a one-score lead, the choice reflected a judgment about game flow and risk tolerance under playoff pressure.
Main event
On fourth-and-1 from the Patriots’ 14-yard line in the second quarter, the Broncos lined up to convert instead of attempting a 31-yard field goal. Payton signaled for a pass to Jarrett Stidham; the play was designed to pick up the short yardage and keep the drive alive for a potential touchdown. Stidham faced pressure on the throw and the pass nearly resulted in an interception, ultimately ending the series without putting points on the board.
The Broncos did have other scoring opportunities later, but two longer field-goal attempts were unsuccessful, which compounded the impact of the earlier decision. As kicking conditions worsened in the final 20 minutes amid snow and wind, those missed attempts became more consequential in hindsight. Stidham’s two turnovers stood out statistically: they were the Broncos’ only turnovers of the game and proved decisive in a tight contest.
Payton defended the choice in his postgame comments, saying he believed the team had momentum and that his call was appropriate based on what he saw defensively. He also acknowledged the unpredictable nature of playoff football and the way weather and circumstance can alter the value of three points. Ultimately, Denver was unable to recover the scoring deficit and will have to wait for another opportunity to return to this stage.
Analysis & implications
Coaches weigh several variables when deciding whether to kick a makeable field goal in the first half: current score, clock, offensive personnel, opponent tendencies, and anticipated fourth-quarter conditions. Payton’s choice prioritized an immediate chance at a two-score cushion over the incremental security of three points. With a backup quarterback operating the offense, however, the risk profile rises, since backups can be more vulnerable to pressure and turnovers.
Weather late in the game magnified the missed opportunities. When wind and snow affect trajectory and footing, expected field-goal success rates decline, which retrospectively increases the value of points left on the field earlier. The Broncos’ missed longer attempts and the failed fourth-down conversion collectively subtracted from their scoring potential in conditions that favored defense and mistake-free play.
Strategically, the sequence will be studied as an example of situational risk management. Analytics tends to endorse going for it on fourth-and-short in many neutral contexts, but real-time factors — the backup quarterback, opponent red-zone defense, and weather forecasts — complicate a pure numbers decision. For Payton and Denver, the outcome underscores how even a single play call can cascade across a playoff game.
Comparison & data
| Situation | Result (Broncos) |
|---|---|
| Fourth-and-1 (NE 14, 2nd quarter) | Pass attempt — pressured; near-interception; no points |
| Longer field-goal attempts (later) | Two attempts failed |
| Turnovers | Stidham committed two turnovers (team total) |
The table summarizes the key scoring-related events that tilted the game. The failed fourth-and-1 conversion removed a chance to extend the lead to 14-0, while missed long field goals left potential points unrealized. Combined with two turnovers by the backup quarterback, these outcomes set a narrow statistical pathway that Denver could not overcome.
Reactions & quotes
Payton publicly explained the rationale behind choosing to be aggressive on fourth-and-1, citing momentum and defensive performance as the basis for the call.
I just felt like we had the momentum to get up 14. I felt like we had a good call. I think the feeling was, let’s be aggressive. I was just watching the way our defense was playing.
Sean Payton
After reflecting on the broader game factors, Payton also highlighted the unpredictable nature of weather and how that can change the relative value of a field goal later in the contest.
You don’t know how a game’s gonna unfold.
Sean Payton
Those comments framed the postgame narrative: a deliberate, aggressive choice that in hindsight missed the mark because of execution and later conditions.
Unconfirmed
- Whether Payton would have chosen the same call with the starting quarterback is not confirmed and remains an open question.
- Exact wind speeds and their measured impact on the missed field-goal attempts have not been officially released in the postgame materials.
Bottom line
Sean Payton’s decision to pass on a short field-goal attempt in the second quarter was a calculated, aggressive call based on perceived momentum and defensive strength. The completion failed due to pressure on Jarrett Stidham, and subsequent missed kicks plus turnovers compounded the loss of scoring opportunities.
In playoff football, small margins decide outcomes. The play will be revisited by analysts and coaching staffs as an instructive case of how real-time factors — personnel, execution, and weather — interact with strategic choice. For Denver, the result is elimination and a reminder that aggressive coaching choices carry both upside and downside in high-stakes games.