US Senate takes steps toward vote to end historic federal shutdown

Lead

On Sunday the US Senate moved toward a vote to reopen the federal government as the shutdown entered its 40th day. Senators indicated they could vote as early as Sunday night to advance a House-passed stopgap funding bill, with plans to amend it to include a short-term continuing resolution plus three full-year appropriations bills. Senate Republican leader John Thune said the amended package would still require House approval and President Donald Trump’s signature, a process that could take several days. The action suggests an end to the shutdown may be within reach, but key disagreements—most prominently over expiring Affordable Care Act subsidies—remain unresolved.

Key takeaways

• The shutdown reached day 40 on Sunday, affecting federal operations including food aid, parks and some services tied to travel.
• Senators planned a procedural vote as early as Sunday night to advance a House stopgap measure that would be amended in the Senate.
• The amendment under discussion would combine a short-term funding extension with three full-year appropriations bills and still needs House passage and Trump’s signature.
• Senate Democrats have pushed to link reopening to a vote on extending expiring ACA subsidies; Republicans refuse to guarantee such a vote now.
• Health policy stakes are high: pandemic-era ACA premium subsidies are set to expire at year-end and independent estimates foresee more than a doubling of average premiums for 2026 plans.
• House Speaker Mike Johnson has previously said he will not hold a vote to extend those tax credits, complicating any compromise.
• Economic risks include potential negative GDP growth in Q4 if travel disruptions persist through Thanksgiving (27 November 2025), a date noted by White House advisers.
• Several Senate Democrats, House progressives and Democratic governors have publicly rejected the emerging compromise as inadequate to protect health-care affordability.

Background

The current shutdown began when Congress failed to enact appropriations or a continuing resolution to keep federal agencies funded. As the impasse stretched into its sixth week, routine services and programs were curtailed and many federal employees were furloughed or working without pay. The dispute centers not only on overall funding levels but on policy riders and high-profile domestic priorities—most immediately whether to extend the Affordable Care Act subsidies that have been temporarily boosted during and after the pandemic.

Governance in the current Congress is divided: Republicans control the House, with Speaker Mike Johnson setting the chamber’s agenda, while Republicans also hold a narrow Senate majority led by John Thune. Democrats have used leverage in the Senate to demand votes on specific policy items, including a one-year extension of ACA premium tax credits. Historically, temporary continuing resolutions are common when negotiations on full appropriations stall; what is unusual now is the political polarization over linking funding to health-care policy.

Main event

On Sunday, Senate leaders signaled readiness to hold a procedural vote to advance a stopgap bill that the House passed. Thune said the plan would be amended in the Senate to fold in three full-year appropriations bills alongside a short-term resolution that would fund the government into late January. If the Senate advances the measure, it must be returned to the House for concurrence and then presented to the president for signature.

Democratic senators pushed back, seeking concrete commitments to vote later on extending expiring ACA subsidies that reduce premiums for many Americans. Connecticut Democrat Richard Blumenthal said he would oppose the funding measure without a defined timeline or guarantee for a follow-up vote on the credits. Other Democrats described the proposed sequencing as an insufficient, conditional promise rather than an enforceable agreement.

In the House, Democratic leaders and progressives reacted strongly. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries pledged to fight any Senate-passed spending bill that does not extend the ACA tax credits, while progressive members warned of steep premium increases for constituents. Conversely, some Senate Republicans, including Thom Tillis, argued that growing operational strains and holiday travel risks pushed negotiators closer to a compromise that would restore funding and reverse some planned federal layoffs.

Analysis & implications

Politically, the emerging Senate plan reflects a classic conditional compromise: Republicans seek to reopen government now and postpone contentious policy votes, while Democrats demand binding assurances for later consideration of the ACA subsidies. If Democrats accept only a pledge to hold a future vote, they risk internal backlash from progressives and from Democratic constituencies that would face higher health costs if subsidies expire.

Legally and procedurally, the Senate can amend and pass the House bill, but any modification sends the measure back to the House where Speaker Johnson’s prior refusal to schedule an ACA subsidy vote complicates the path forward. That creates a multi-step timetable in which a Senate passage does not guarantee immediate relief for furloughed workers or immediate policy change on health insurance subsidies.

Economically, the shutdown already has measurable effects on services and travel; White House economic advisers warned that prolonged closures could push fourth-quarter growth negative, particularly if air travel is disrupted through Thanksgiving on 27 November 2025. The practical consequences include delayed government services and potential cascading impacts on commerce tied to travel and seasonal holiday spending.

For voters, the crisis highlights trade-offs: reopening the government quickly versus using leverage to secure policy wins such as ACA subsidy extensions. How Democrats balance short-term relief for federal workers and long-term protections for health-care affordability will shape messaging ahead of future elections and influence public perceptions of both parties’ priorities.

Comparison & data

The table summarizes key concrete figures cited in discussions. The 40-day duration underscores an extended disruption; Thanksgiving is a near-term deadline for travel normalization; the 189,000 figure illustrates district-level stakes cited by Representative Maxwell Frost; and health experts’ estimates of premiums rising by more than 100% frame the urgency around ACA subsidy negotiations.

Reactions & quotes

Senators and House leaders framed the emerging deal through sharply different lenses, reflecting intraparty tensions and cross-branch dynamics.

I am unwilling to accept a vague promise of a vote at some indeterminate time, on some undefined measure that extends the healthcare tax credits.

Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT)

Blumenthal made clear he would oppose the stopgap unless Democrats receive a concrete, enforceable commitment on a vote to extend ACA tax credits. His stance signals that some Senate Democrats may block a motion unless the future vote is timebound and specific.

We will not support spending legislation advanced by Senate Republicans that fails to extend the Affordable Care Act tax credits. We will fight the GOP bill in the House of Representatives.

Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, House Democratic Leader

Jeffries’ statement framed the House Democratic response: even if the Senate advances an amended package, House Democrats say they will oppose any version that omits a substantive cure for expiring subsidies that lower premiums.

Temperatures cool, the atmospheric pressure increases outside and all of a sudden it looks like things will come together.

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC)

Tillis used a weather metaphor to describe the negotiation dynamic, arguing practical pressures—operational strains and looming holiday travel—have nudged lawmakers closer to agreement.

Unconfirmed

• Whether the Senate procedural vote will occur exactly on the night it was signaled remains subject to scheduling and could be delayed by procedural objections.
• It is unconfirmed whether Speaker Mike Johnson will schedule or permit a House vote to extend ACA tax credits after any Senate amendment is returned to the House.
• The precise national average for 2026 premium increases remains an estimate; projections vary by methodology and may be revised as insurers file rates.
• Claims that the amended package will reverse a specific number of federal layoffs are not yet verifiable; implementation would depend on agency actions and appropriations language.

Bottom line

The Senate’s move to advance a House stopgap bill signals momentum toward ending a shutdown that entered its 40th day, but procedural movement in the Senate does not guarantee an immediate reopening. Key obstacles remain: Democrats want a concrete vote to extend expiring ACA subsidies, while House Republican leadership has resisted scheduling such a vote. That split means the path to a signed, durable funding solution still requires multiple steps and political concessions.

For Americans, the immediate stakes are clear—federal workers, public services and travel plans face ongoing disruption—and the medium-term risk centers on health-care affordability if subsidies lapse. Watch for whether the House agrees to any Senate amendments, whether leaders produce enforceable timelines for ACA action, and how voters and stakeholders react in the coming days as the process unfolds.

Sources

• The Guardian — reporting on Senate proceedings and reactions (media)