Lead: On Sept. 10, 2025 U.S. equity markets pushed to fresh intraday records after unexpectedly cooler producer-price data increased expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts this year. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both reached new intraday highs as traders priced a 25-basis-point cut as likely at the Fed’s Sept. 16-17 meeting. Technology names led gains, with Oracle surging 35% after forecasting very strong demand for its cloud infrastructure. The moves left the Dow lower while investors shifted attention to the U.S. consumer-price report due the next day.
Key Takeaways
- The S&P 500 rose 31.47 points (0.48%) to 6,543.78 intraday; the Nasdaq added 74.71 points (0.33%) to 21,952.25 at 09:41 a.m. ET.
- U.S. producer prices unexpectedly fell in August, pushing market odds for a 25-basis-point Fed cut in September to roughly 90% and ~10% for a 50-basis-point move (CME FedWatch).
- Oracle jumped about 35% to a record high after saying it expects booked revenue at Oracle Cloud Infrastructure to exceed half a trillion dollars, marking its largest one-day percentage gain since 1992.
- Leading chipmakers rose on Oracle optimism: Nvidia +3.6%, AMD +3.1% and Broadcom +6.2%; the Philadelphia semiconductor index gained 2.2% to a record high.
- Data-center power suppliers also rallied: Constellation Energy +5.0%, Vistra +5.1% and GE Vernova +5.0%.
- Barclays raised its 2025 year-end S&P 500 target to 6,450 from 6,050, its second lift in three months.
- Synopsys shares plunged 33% after missing third-quarter revenue estimates; peer Cadence fell 8.6%.
- Advancing issues outnumbered decliners on the NYSE by 2.03-to-1 and on the Nasdaq by 1.35-to-1; the S&P posted 14 new 52-week highs and four new lows, the Nasdaq 65 new highs and 20 new lows.
Background
Inflation readings have been a primary driver of market direction in 2025 as investors try to anticipate the Federal Reserve’s policy path. Producer-price inflation, which tracks wholesale costs including services and goods, can influence consumer prices and the central bank’s tolerance for easing. The unexpected decline in August producer prices reduced near-term inflation pressure and gave traders more confidence that the Fed can deliver at least one rate reduction before year-end.
Markets entered September cautiously after mixed labor-market data suggested a slowing jobs expansion, and a downward payrolls revision earlier in the week had already supported rate-cut expectations. Historically, September has been a weaker month for U.S. stocks (S&P 500 has averaged a 1.5% loss since 2000), but this month began with a string of record closes into Tuesday, reflecting a market willing to price easing if inflation continues to moderate.
Main Event
The session on Sept. 10 opened with traders recalibrating rate-cut probabilities after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a decline in producer prices for August. The immediate market reaction was to lift growth-oriented assets: the S&P 500 and Nasdaq set intraday records while the Dow lagged, weighed down by declines in consumer discretionary names. By 09:41 a.m. ET the S&P was at 6,543.78 and the Nasdaq at 21,952.25.
Oracle’s announcement that booked revenue at Oracle Cloud Infrastructure is expected to top half a trillion dollars sparked a concentrated buyer response in cloud and chip-related stocks. Oracle’s shares climbed about 35%, their steepest daily jump in decades, which fed through to chipmakers Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom, and lifted the broader tech sector by about 1.8% for the session.
Companies that supply power and infrastructure to data centers likewise rallied on the cloud forecast, with Constellation Energy, Vistra and GE Vernova each rising roughly 5%. At the same time, software and chip-design vendors faced sharp selloffs after earnings or revenue misses: Synopsys fell 33% and Cadence slipped 8.6%, illustrating intra-sector divergence between hardware/data-center beneficiaries and some software vendors.
Traders also noted geopolitical and policy noise in the background: a federal judge temporarily blocked President Trump from removing Fed Governor Lisa Cook, a legal development investors saw as adding uncertainty to the political landscape but not directly to monetary policy in the near term. Markets will shift focus to the U.S. consumer-price index due on Thursday for further guidance on inflation trends.
Analysis & Implications
The producer-price decline in August reduces immediate inflationary pressure from the wholesale side and gives the Federal Reserve more latitude to consider easing. With Fed funds cut odds for September at about 90% for 25 basis points, market pricing now assumes at least one cut this year — a material re-pricing from earlier in 2025 when higher-for-longer rhetoric prevailed.
Higher odds of rate cuts typically favor growth and technology stocks, which explains the strong reaction in cloud-related names and semiconductors. Oracle’s bullish OCI outlook is a near-term growth signal for the data-center ecosystem, which benefits chipmakers and energy suppliers that service large server farms. If OCI bookings materialize at scale, it could shift longer-term revenue expectations across enterprise cloud competitors.
However, the rally is uneven and selective. The dramatic one-day moves in individual equities underscore a market that can rapidly re-rate firm valuation based on forward guidance or earnings misses. Synopsys’s 33% slide after a revenue miss demonstrates investor intolerance for disappointments even as macro conditions grow more supportive for risk assets.
Looking ahead, the U.S. consumer-price index and upcoming earnings reports will be key to sustaining the move. If CPI continues to cool, the Fed may have room for multiple cuts into 2026, boosting valuations; conversely, renewed inflation upside would prompt a swift reassessment of rate-cut timing and flatten current gains.
Comparison & Data
| Index / Key Stocks | Change | Notable Level |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +0.48% (+31.47) | 6,543.78 (intraday) |
| Nasdaq Composite | +0.33% (+74.71) | 21,952.25 (intraday) |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | -0.19% (-85.24) | 45,626.10 |
| Oracle (ORCL) | +35% (record high) | Largest one-day % gain since 1992 |
| Nvidia (NVDA) | +3.6% | — |
| Synopsys (SNPS) | -33% | Missed Q3 revenue |
The table above captures the session’s headline moves. Sector leadership came from technology and semiconductors, while the Dow lagged due to weakness among consumer discretionary names. Volume breadth favored advancers over decliners on both major exchanges, signaling broad participation behind the upside.
Reactions & Quotes
Market participants pointed to the producer-price report as the immediate trigger for the rally, and analysts emphasized how that read interacts with ongoing Fed expectations.
“Any and all signs that inflation is coming down… (are) welcomed with a big please and thank you from the market and from the Fed,”
Adam Sarhan, CEO, 50 Park Investments (market strategist)
Company commentary also shaped sentiment around cloud and data-center-related equities.
“We expect booked revenue at Oracle Cloud Infrastructure to exceed half a trillion dollars,”
Oracle (company statement)
Unconfirmed
- Oracle’s expectation for OCI booked revenue exceeding $500 billion is a corporate projection; the timing and full realization of that amount across reporting periods remain subject to future reporting and audit.
- The longer-term impact of the federal judge’s temporary order related to Fed governance on monetary policy and markets is uncertain and depends on subsequent legal and administrative developments.
Bottom Line
Wednesday’s session showed how a single macro data point — an unexpected drop in producer prices — can materially shift Fed-cut odds and re-price equities, particularly growth and tech names. Oracle’s outsized move amplified sector rotation into semiconductors and data-center suppliers, demonstrating the sensitivity of related stocks to cloud demand signals.
Investors should watch the U.S. consumer-price index due the next day and upcoming corporate earnings for confirmation of the narrative. If inflation readings continue to cool, markets will likely price in further easing, supporting elevated equity valuations; if inflation re-accelerates, the recent record highs could come under pressure as rate-cut expectations are scaled back.