Stock futures were modestly higher on Thursday as markets tried to stabilize after the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average posted losses for a second consecutive session. Futures tied to the Dow rose about 58 points (roughly 0.1%), S&P 500 futures climbed roughly 0.4% and Nasdaq-100 futures were up about 0.7% in early trade. Semiconductor shares led gains after Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) reported another record quarter and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing-related names rallied. The market backdrop remained sensitive to geopolitical headlines and fresh U.S. trade measures targeting chips.
Key takeaways
- Dow futures were up about 58 points, approximately 0.1%, while S&P 500 futures rose ~0.4% and Nasdaq-100 futures gained ~0.7% in early trading.
- TSMC’s record quarter pushed chip-related stocks higher: Taiwan Semiconductor jumped about 6%, Micron rose ~3%, and Nvidia and AMD each gained more than 1%.
- President Donald Trump issued a proclamation imposing a 25% tariff on certain semiconductors, with carve-outs for chips imported to support U.S. supply-chain buildout.
- Reuters reported that Chinese customs officials had advised agents this week that Nvidia’s H200 chips are not allowed entry into China (report cited unnamed briefed individuals).
- Banks underperformed after earnings: Wells Fargo, Citigroup and Bank of America fell following their results, contributing to Wednesday’s losses.
- Energy markets reacted to geopolitical tension with Iran; West Texas Intermediate futures settled more than 1% higher before easing after comments from President Trump.
- The small-cap Russell 2000 climbed about 0.7% and reached an all-time high, marking strong breadth despite weakness in the large-cap indices.
Background
Equity markets entered Thursday still digesting two straight sessions of declines in the large-cap benchmarks. Technology-sector weakness was a primary driver of Wednesday’s losses, amplified by regulatory and geopolitical developments that directly affect chip makers and cloud/data-center equipment suppliers. At the same time, durable corporate earnings reports have provided an underpinning for risk assets; many strategists view 2026 growth as being driven by earnings rather than valuation expansion.
Semiconductor industry dynamics have been especially influential: TSMC’s latest results signaled strong demand for advanced chips, while U.S. policy steps have introduced new trade frictions. The U.S. administration’s move to levy duties on certain chips and its recent pronouncements about limiting or monetizing exports to China have created added uncertainty for market participants. Banking-sector earnings that missed optimistic expectations added another layer of market caution on the heels of tech headlines.
Main event
In early trade Thursday, futures showed only modest gains as investors weighed company-level strength against broader headwinds. Chipmakers outperformed after TSMC reported record revenue and profit for the quarter, lifting regional and global suppliers; Taiwan Semi surged roughly 6% in response while memory and AI-related names such as Micron, Nvidia and AMD also advanced. The chip rally helped offset declines in other sectors and supported a mixed market picture.
On policy, President Trump signed a proclamation imposing a 25% levy on certain semiconductor imports, while specifying exemptions for components that are imported to support U.S. technology-ecosystem buildout. Separately, the administration announced an approach to allow sales of Nvidia’s H200 into China with a reported government cut of about 25% on those transactions; the policy mix has generated debate about the scope and economic effect of U.S. controls on advanced chips.
Geopolitical developments added volatility: oil prices moved higher amid concerns about possible supply disruptions tied to U.S.-Iran tensions before easing after remarks from the president indicating restraint. Diplomacy also surfaced on the agenda — a White House meeting with Danish and Greenlandic officials concluded with what Denmark called a “fundamental disagreement” about Greenland’s sovereignty after public U.S. interest in the territory revived headlines.
Analysis & implications
The near-term market reaction shows a bifurcated environment: company-level fundamentals—TSMC’s strong quarter and solid earnings at many firms—support equities, while policy uncertainty and geopolitical tension weigh on sentiment. If chip-export restrictions or tariffs broaden, supply-chain costs and capital spending decisions for cloud and AI infrastructure could be affected, potentially slowing ordering cycles for semiconductors and related equipment.
Banks underperforming after earnings highlights that not all sectors are participating in any potential rebound; financials may face profit-pressure if economic growth softens or if credit costs rise. Yet, some market strategists argue that earnings momentum can sustain equity performance in 2026 even without multiple expansion, implying stock moves may track corporate results more than headline volatility in the near term.
Internationally, reported restrictions on Nvidia’s H200 entering China (as cited by news agencies) would be material for global AI hardware markets. Such measures could shift vendor strategies, accelerate regional diversification of supply chains, and influence where manufacturers invest in capacity. Policy uncertainty alone can compress near-term multiples and increase dispersion between winners and losers among chip suppliers.
Comparison & data
| Instrument | Move (early trade) |
|---|---|
| Dow futures | +58 points (~+0.1%) |
| S&P 500 futures | +0.4% |
| Nasdaq-100 futures | +0.7% |
| Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) | Record quarter; regional names up (Taiwan Semi ~+6%) |
| Russell 2000 | +0.7% (touched an all-time high) |
The table summarizes early-session moves cited by market reports. While the large-cap benchmarks retraced losses modestly in futures trade, the small-cap Russell 2000’s fresh high underscores divergent internals. Chip-sector gains were the clearest upside driver; energy and financials contributed mixed effects as geopolitical headlines and bank earnings influenced flows.
Reactions & quotes
Market strategists stressed that robust corporate profits remain the principal support for equities, even as short-term disappointments can create buying opportunities.
“The economy remains relatively stable … corporate earnings remain relatively strong, and we continue to believe that 2026 is going to be really powered by earnings versus any sort of multiple expansion from here.”
Ayako Yoshioka, Portfolio Consulting Director, Wealth Enhancement Group
Yoshioka made these remarks on CNBC’s closing bell program, arguing that earnings strength should outweigh transitory market noise. She noted that while the bar for expectations is high, dips can present accumulation points for investors who focus on the economic backdrop rather than headline volatility.
On policy toward advanced chips, the U.S. president framed the administration’s approach as both a tool to influence exports and a revenue mechanism for certain transactions.
“It’s not the highest level, but it’s a pretty good level, and China wants them and other people want them and we’re going to be making 25% on the sale of those chips, basically.”
Donald Trump, President of the United States
That comment accompanied announcements around sales of Nvidia’s H200 and a stated 25% government cut on specific transactions. Markets interpreted the remarks as adding complexity to export policy while leaving open carve-outs for U.S. supply-chain needs.
Diplomatic friction also produced terse official language after a trilateral White House meeting.
“Fundamental disagreement.”
Danish government official
Denmark used that phrase to describe the outcome of talks about Greenland’s sovereignty and U.S. interest in the territory. The wording signals continued diplomatic sensitivity, and the meeting’s result did not resolve the parties’ divergent views.
Unconfirmed
- Reuters’ report that Chinese customs have formally barred Nvidia H200 entries was based on unnamed sources and has not been independently verified by official Chinese customs statements.
- The precise scope and implementation mechanics of the U.S. government’s reported 25% cut on H200 sales into China remain unclear in public filings and could change as regulations are finalized.
- Short-term market impact from the White House meeting on Greenland is uncertain; diplomatic statements indicate disagreement but do not specify follow-up actions.
Bottom line
Thursday’s session showed modest early gains in futures as investors balanced positive company news—most notably TSMC’s record quarter and follow-through strength in chip stocks—against policy and geopolitical uncertainty. Large-cap indices had suffered two straight down sessions, but internal breadth, led by small caps and semiconductors, suggests selective strength beneath headline weakness.
Key risks to watch include further policy moves on semiconductor exports or tariffs, any escalation in geopolitical tensions affecting oil supplies, and the incoming cadence of corporate earnings that will determine whether 2026’s gains are driven by profit growth or multiple expansion. For now, many strategists frame pullbacks as potential buying opportunities while monitoring near-term event risk.