Lead: On Nov. 8, 2025, aid groups reported that tens of thousands of people fled el-Fasher in North Darfur after the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) captured the city on Oct. 26. Many have reached overcrowded camps around Tawila and face acute shortages of shelter, food and medical care. International agencies warn that thousands remain trapped in the city and that the humanitarian crisis is deepening across Darfur and neighboring Kordofan.
Key takeaways
- Since the RSF seized el-Fasher on Oct. 26 after an 18-month siege, more than 16,200 people have arrived at camps in Tawila, according to aid group Sudan’s IDPs and Refugee Camps.
- The International Organization for Migration estimated about 82,000 people fled el-Fasher and nearby areas by Nov. 4, heading to Tawila and other locations.
- Doctors Without Borders (MSF) reported 300 arrivals to Tawila on Nov. 6 and documented extremely high levels of malnutrition among children and adults.
- The World Health Organization places the national death toll from the conflict at at least 40,000, while displacement has reached roughly 12 million people nationwide.
- Witness accounts, videos and satellite imagery describe killings and sexual assaults in el-Fasher, and the WHO reported more than 450 deaths at the Saudi Hospital during the assault.
- The RSF has said it accepted a U.S.-led Quad humanitarian truce proposal; the Sudanese army conditions any pause on RSF withdrawal from civilian areas and disarmament.
- Fighting has spread into North Kordofan, where a drone strike on el-Obeid killed at least 40 people earlier in the week, and military officials reported intercepting two drones targeting that city.
Background
The current escalation traces to a power struggle between the RSF and Sudan’s regular armed forces that erupted into open warfare in April 2023. The two forces have since contested control of population centers and supply routes across Darfur, Kordofan and central Sudan. Darfur — already decimated by earlier waves of violence since the 2000s — has again become the focal point for mass displacement and humanitarian collapse.
El-Fasher, the provincial capital of North Darfur, endured an 18-month siege before its fall on Oct. 26. The city’s capture followed months of shifting front lines that deprived residents of basic services and humanitarian access. Tawila and other nearby towns were already hosting displaced people from previous episodes of violence, leaving limited capacity to absorb new arrivals.
Main event
The RSF entered el-Fasher on Oct. 26 after a prolonged siege. Aid groups and survivors describe house-to-house violence and attacks on medical facilities. The WHO reported that more than 450 people were killed at the Saudi Hospital during the RSF advance; the RSF denies responsibility for killings there.
Video and eyewitness testimony posted by Sudan’s IDPs and Refugee Camps show crowded makeshift settlements around Tawila, with families erecting shelters from tarps and sheets. Aid workers describe long lines for food, shared pots to feed many people, and children running through the barren sites in search of water or relief supplies.
By Nov. 4, IOM estimated some 82,000 people had fled el-Fasher and surrounding areas. Adam Rojal, a spokesperson for the local aid group, said more than 16,200 people had reached Tawila alone. MSF teams reported arrivals of 300 people in a single day and documented severe malnutrition among both children and adults.
Meanwhile, fighting spread to North Kordofan. Early in the week a drone strike in el-Obeid killed at least 40 people and wounded dozens. Military spokespeople said two Chinese-made drones were intercepted targeting el-Obeid on Saturday morning; the official who reported that spoke on condition of anonymity.
Analysis & implications
The fall of el-Fasher represents a tactical expansion for the RSF and a significant humanitarian setback. Analysts warn that control of Darfur provincial capitals gives the RSF access to logistics and routes that could facilitate movement toward central Sudan, potentially reversing earlier stability gains by the Sudanese armed forces.
For civilians, the immediate implication is a surge in displacement into areas with very limited humanitarian capacity. Tawila and neighboring towns were already strained; sudden influxes increase competition for food, water and shelter and raise the risk of disease outbreaks and malnutrition. MSF’s malnutrition warnings underscore how quickly acute health needs can outpace response.
Diplomatic efforts, including a U.S.-led Quad truce initiative, face practical obstacles: the army conditions any truce on RSF withdrawal from civilian areas and disarmament, while the RSF says it accepted a humanitarian pause. Even if formal pauses are agreed, enforcing protection and securing humanitarian corridors remain major challenges.
Regionally, renewed fighting in Kordofan and the use of drones signal a widening battlefield with higher civilian risk and potential spillover. Prolonged instability will likely deepen food insecurity — already severe for nearly half of Sudan’s population — and amplify cross-border displacement into neighboring countries.
Comparison & data
| Metric | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Deaths (national, minimum) | At least 40,000 | World Health Organization (reported) |
| Internally displaced (national) | About 12 million | Humanitarian reports |
| People fled el-Fasher area | ~82,000 (by Nov. 4) | International Organization for Migration estimate |
| Arrivals in Tawila | 16,200+ | Sudan’s IDPs and Refugee Camps (aid group) |
| Deaths at Saudi Hospital (el-Fasher) | More than 450 | World Health Organization (reported) |
The table aggregates official and agency-reported figures cited by aid organizations and international bodies. Some figures are minimums or estimates and may be revised as verification continues. Displacement totals combine recent waves with long-term trends since April 2023; comparisons should account for differing methodologies and reporting dates.
Reactions & quotes
International officials, local aid workers and analysts have each emphasized different aspects of the crisis: civilian protection, emergency needs and strategic consequences.
“Today, traumatized civilians are still trapped inside el-Fasher and are being prevented from leaving.”
Volker Türk, U.N. human rights chief (statement)
Türk warned in Geneva that summary executions, rape and ethnic violence are likely continuing and that exit routes have themselves been sites of further abuses.
“Families often survive on just two meals a day — and sometimes only one.”
Adam Rojal, spokesperson, Sudan’s IDPs and Refugee Camps (aid group)
Rojal described Tawila as overwhelmed, with improvised shelters and urgent shortages of food, medicine and psychosocial support for survivors.
“The fall of el-Fasher and rising violence in North Kordofan mark a strategic victory for the RSF but exacerbate human suffering.”
Jalale Getachew Birru, analyst, Armed Conflict Location and Event Data
Birru estimated that at least 2,000 people were killed nationwide in a single week between Oct. 26 and Nov. 1, and warned the RSF’s gains could enable expansion toward central Sudan.
Unconfirmed
- Claims that the RSF did not kill anyone at the Saudi Hospital remain disputed; multiple agency reports and witness testimonies allege more than 450 deaths there.
- The true national death toll may be higher than the WHO’s figure of at least 40,000 due to access limits and reporting delays.
- The origin and operator of the drones used in strikes on el-Obeid are not independently verified; the military’s description of the drones as Chinese-made is based on their official statement.
Bottom line
The capture of el-Fasher and the consequent displacement to Tawila underline a rapidly worsening humanitarian crisis in Darfur and beyond. Tens of thousands of people urgently need food, shelter, medical care and protection, while many others remain trapped and at risk of grave abuses.
Diplomatic efforts at temporary truces may provide brief relief if they are enforceable, but sustainable protection will require secure humanitarian corridors, verified withdrawal from civilian areas and accelerated international assistance. Until those conditions are met, the conflict risks producing further displacement, higher mortality from both violence and malnutrition, and broader regional instability.