Less than a month after Democrats posted several statewide wins on Nov. 4, voters in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District go to the polls Tuesday in a special election that could slightly reshape the narrow House Republican majority. The contest pits Republican Matt Van Epps against Democrat Aftyn Behn to replace GOP Rep. Mark Green, who resigned in July. Polls in the district close at 7 p.m. local time (8 p.m. ET); the outcome will be watched as an early gauge of party strength heading into the 2026 midterms. Ballot totals, early voting volume and the role of national spending and visits from high-profile figures are central to how the race unfolds.
Key takeaways
- The special election is Sept. Tuesday (polls close 7 p.m. CT / 8 p.m. ET); it fills the seat vacated by Republican Mark Green in July.
- Republican nominee Matt Van Epps, a West Point graduate and former Army helicopter pilot, won an Oct. primary with endorsements from Donald Trump and Mark Green.
- Democrat Aftyn Behn, a state representative first elected in 2023, narrowly prevailed in a competitive Democratic primary and has drawn national attention and spending.
- Fundraising through mid-November showed Behn raised roughly $1.0 million more than her pre-primary totals, while Van Epps reported an additional $590,000 in that period per FEC filings.
- The 7th District gave Donald Trump about 60% of the vote in 2024; Davidson County (Nashville) favors Democrats but comprises roughly 22% of the district vote.
- Registered voters in the district numbered about 466,000 in the 2024 general election; turnout was ~69% in 2024 and ~41% in the 2022 midterms.
- As of Nov. 26, more than 84,000 ballots had been cast in early voting for the special election.
Background
Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District has been a reliably Republican seat in recent cycles. The district covers a mostly rural swath of Middle Tennessee and includes portions of Davidson County, where Nashville is located; those Davidson precincts vote strongly Democratic but represent a minority of the district’s electorate. The seat became vacant when Rep. Mark Green resigned in July to enter the private sector, triggering the special election timetable.
Redistricting in 2022 redistributed Davidson County’s Democratic voters into multiple neighboring districts, reducing the size of a Nashville-centered Democratic district and making the 7th more favorable to Republican candidates. Under the new map, Green’s winning margins narrowed from the 67–70% range under old lines to roughly 60% in both 2022 and 2024, yet the district remains a GOP stronghold on paper.
Main event
Republican Matt Van Epps, who led Tennessee’s Department of General Services under Gov. Bill Lee, emerged from a crowded Oct. 7 special primary after receiving endorsements from Trump and Green. Van Epps’ background as a West Point graduate and former Army helicopter pilot has been a central part of his campaign messaging, and national Republicans have moved to consolidate resources behind him.
Democrat Aftyn Behn, a state representative elected in a 2023 special election, portrayed herself as a progressive organizer and narrowly won a four-way Democratic primary that included two other state lawmakers and a well-funded local businessman. Some state Democrats characterized her as a prominent new face for the party in Tennessee, which has boosted interest and outside funding in the contest.
National figures have intervened: Trump phoned into a Van Epps tele-rally on Nov. 13 as early voting began, while then–Vice President Kamala Harris campaigned in Nashville on Nov. 18 to drive Democratic turnout. That attention helped inflate outside spending and local fundraising, with both campaigns reporting significant cash inflows in the final weeks before the special election.
Election administrators expect returns to arrive quickly in many precincts — primaries in the district were tabulated fast in early October — though final, comprehensive counts could take longer depending on the volume of absentee and provisional ballots. Tennessee’s approach to recounts is constrained: recounts occur only through court challenges, there are no automatic recounts, and losing candidates do not have an administrative recount request process.
Analysis & implications
At stake politically is a small but symbolically important expansion of the Republican majority in the U.S. House. House Republicans hold a narrow 219–213 edge; a Van Epps win would widen that margin and may embolden GOP messaging heading into the 2026 cycle. For Democrats, a victory in a district that delivered roughly 60% for Trump in 2024 would extend a late-2025 Democratic streak and offer a talking point about competitiveness in historically red territory.
Fundraising and nationalization of the race matter disproportionately in a special election. FEC-reported mid-November fundraising showed Behn with larger recent receipts than Van Epps, but the Republican nominee entered the race with strong institutional backing and endorsements that help with turnout operations. In low-visibility contests, turnout infrastructure and early voting patterns often determine outcomes, and both sides have focused on turning out their most reliable voters.
Demographics and district lines reduce the likelihood of a Democratic upset but do not make it impossible. Davidson County’s Democratic vote share concentrates support for Behn in a portion of the district; if turnout in the Nashville precincts exceeds expectations while Republican turnout falters in rural counties, the result could tighten. Conversely, the district’s consistent county-level support for Trump (at least 59% in 13 counties in 2024) argues for Republican resilience.
Comparison & data
| Measure | 2024 Result / Notes |
|---|---|
| Trump vs. Harris (district) | Trump ≈ 60%, Harris ≈ 38% |
| Davidson County portion | Harris ≈ 68% of votes there (≈22% of district total) |
| Mark Green (past results) | Old lines 67–70%; new lines 60% in 2022 & 2024 |
| Registered voters (2024) | ≈466,000 |
| Early ballots cast (special election, through Nov. 26) | Just over 84,000 |
| Turnout rates | ≈69% in 2024 general; ≈41% in 2022 midterms |
| Fundraising (pre- & mid-Nov.) | Van Epps: >$348,000 pre-primary + ~$590,000 mid-Nov.; Behn: >$168,000 pre-primary + ≈$1,000,000 mid-Nov. (FEC filings) |
The table above aggregates vote shares, turnout and fundraising figures reported in pre-election filings and past electoral results. These numbers show why both national parties prioritized the district: it combines sizable Republican margins across many counties with a concentrated Democratic pocket in Davidson County large enough to affect margins if turnout patterns shift.
Reactions & quotes
Media organizations and the campaigns framed the contest in terms of national momentum. The Associated Press emphasized its calling policy and the standards it uses before declaring a winner; that policy affects how quickly a result is reported and whether a race is labeled decided on election night.
The AP will not project a winner until it is clear there is no realistic path for a trailing candidate to close the gap.
Associated Press (news agency)
Nationalized campaigning also produced high-profile appearances intended to mobilize base voters. Trump’s tele-rally for Van Epps and Kamala Harris’s Nashville event for Democrats were marketed as turnout drives rather than detailed policy forums.
Trump called into a Van Epps tele-rally to urge supporters to turn out, while then–Vice President Harris campaigned in Nashville to boost Democratic participation.
Associated Press (news agency)
Local activists and party operatives described the race as a resource test ahead of 2026: Democrats see an opportunity to expand on recent wins; Republicans view it as containment and reinforcement of their House majority.
Both parties are treating the special as a barometer for 2026, deploying staff, money and surrogates to influence turnout and messaging.
Local campaigns and party statements (compiled)
Unconfirmed
- Any late-arriving or provisional ballots that could shift a very tight margin — specific counts remain unknown until canvass results are released.
- The full extent and timing of outside spending in the final 72 hours of the campaign — ad buys and independent expenditures will be reported to regulators but may not be reflected in early public tallies.
- Potential legal challenges to the result — while Tennessee’s recount rules limit administrative recounts, the possibility of court action remains if a campaign alleges procedural irregularities.
Bottom line
This special election will provide a narrow but important signal about party strength heading into 2026. A Van Epps win would modestly boost House Republicans’ working margin; a Behn victory would extend Democrats’ late-2025 momentum and feed a narrative of competitiveness in red-leaning territory. Given the district’s 2024 vote profile, Republican structural advantages persist, yet turnout patterns — especially in Davidson County — can narrow the gap.
Watch the early returns and the distribution of votes across Davidson County versus the district’s rural counties, and note official post-election reporting and FEC filings for definitive fundraising and spending figures. The Associated Press and local election officials will publish updates on canvass results, and any legal challenges would be handled in court under Tennessee’s recount rules.
Sources
- PBS NewsHour (news report featuring Associated Press coverage)
- Federal Election Commission (official campaign fundraising filings)
- Tennessee Secretary of State – Elections (state election administration)
- Associated Press (news agency coverage and election-calling policy)