Lead: On Sept. 5, 2025, Thailand’s parliament prepared to elect a new prime minister after former premier Thaksin Shinawatra flew to Dubai late on Sept. 4, leaving his ruling Pheu Thai party in disarray as rival coalitions jockeyed for power.
Key Takeaways
- Thaksin Shinawatra (76) departed Thailand for Dubai on Sept. 4, citing a medical check, days before a court ruling that could affect his custody status.
- Pheu Thai is weakened after the recent sacking of Paetongtarn Shinawatra as prime minister for an ethics breach.
- Bhumjaithai leader Anutin Charnvirakul has backing that could secure the 247-vote threshold to become prime minister.
- Anutin’s coalition holds 146 lawmakers and has an understanding with the People’s Party, which can supply 143 votes if it remains in opposition.
- Pheu Thai nominated former attorney-general Chaikasem Nitisiri (77) and pledged a snap election if he wins, but his prospects look slim.
- Thaksin returned from 15 years of exile in 2023, served part of an eight-year sentence and is awaiting a Supreme Court decision on whether his hospital transfer counts as time served.
Verified Facts
Thaksin Shinawatra left Thailand on his private jet late on Sept. 4, 2025, and posted on social media that he had arrived in Dubai for a medical check. He said he intended to return by Monday, a statement that has not been independently verified.
Six days earlier a court removed Paetongtarn Shinawatra from the premiership for an ethics violation, triggering a scramble among parties to build a new governing majority. Pheu Thai — which has won five of the last six general elections — has struggled to contain defections and coalition shifts.
Bhumjaithai’s leader Anutin Charnvirakul emerged as the likely candidate after his party secured the backing of the largest parliamentary force and negotiated support from other groups. Anutin needs more than half the lower house to vote for him to assume office; the commonly cited threshold is 247 votes in the lower chamber.
Context & Impact
The episode marks another chapter in a two-decade power struggle centered on Thaksin, whose return in 2023 and subsequent legal and medical developments have repeatedly reshaped Thai politics. His abrupt departure this week deepens uncertainty inside Pheu Thai and reduces its maneuvering room ahead of the parliamentary vote.
If Anutin becomes prime minister, his backers have pledged to call a fresh election within four months, a move that could reset party alignments but also prolong short-term instability. A Chaikasem victory, while unlikely in current calculations, would have immediately triggered a snap election per Pheu Thai’s promise.
“I have arrived for a medical check in Dubai and expect to return by Monday,”
Thaksin Shinawatra, social post
Unconfirmed
- Thaksin’s stated return date (by Monday) has not been confirmed by independent sources.
- The exact internal voting commitments inside Pheu Thai and among smaller parties remain fluid until the parliamentary ballot is completed.
Bottom Line
Thailand faces a pivotal parliamentary vote that could install Anutin Charnvirakul as prime minister and lead to a pledged early election, while Thaksin’s sudden exit heightens uncertainty for Pheu Thai. The coming days, including a Supreme Court decision, will determine whether the current realignment endures or further upheaval follows.